May 5th... the next super-moon, could bring in a super quake...

You gather??? I presume because the guy said so himself and you believed him. ound:

It's a free country, so you can post all the bullshit you like, but it's still bullshit. If solar flares were the equivalent of covering the entire Earth's surface in dynamite, how come we're still alive? Because it's bullshit!

FWIW, the Earth's magnetosphere protects us from all that stuff, which would otherwise play havoc with our DNA, though it still would not trigger earthquakes or volcanos.

 

Mojo @39 - now yer talkin'! This link is on the first page of that 6080-long google scholar search I linked. If you get fired up to research this more fully, we really could not anticipate the outcome. It might be very interesting.

Standard statistical tests for earthquakes vs. solar flares or also vs. lunar syzygy. The more data included the better. In other words, don't make too much of the fact that the few largest quakes in 20th century happened under full moons

But (and this is the part you won't like as well) we cannot do as much with Corbyn's own tests of his own predictions. Use all the data and standard, transparent statistical methods. After substantial work, I don't want ClimateAudit coming after you because your stats seemed inadequate!

My support and enthusiasm are 100% sincere. Any harsh words that may have come between us mean nothing. You go! This is science!

But you are going to have to take the lead because I have a bucketload of other hypotheses to test. Carbon cycle stuff.

 

Actually a third party did the calculation .

Dont worry ,there isnt really any dynamite on the ground.
The equivalent amount of energy deforms the Earths magnetic field.
It doesnt actually explode the planet and kill everyone.

Just because you think all Earth "science is settled", doesnt mean you have to remain an ignorant fool.
But of course you already understand the entire workings of the planet and Universe.
The problem with the brainwashed global warming settled science crowd,is that you painted yourselves into a corner.
CO2 is the culprit, and now you cant explore any new realms of science without threatening your lame theory.Even if its only a tangential threat.
Stay dumb my friend.You'll be a lot happier that way.
Youre like the Pope who persecuted Galileo.

 

BTW did you happen to notice the American Geophysical Union study I previously posted?
Where ALL 682 earthquakes were preceded by solar flares.
Probably just a coincidence.
Or "Bullsh#t Pseudoscience" in your opinion.

 

Nobody thinks science is settled. Your problem is that you've got one crackpot who disagrees with the entire science community, so you're convinced he's the one who's right.

Your denial of global climate change places you squarely in the camp of the far-right crackpots who fund a few non-climate scientists to spread FUD so that they won't have to stop burning oil.

I like this quote. I think Darrell posted it a while back:

It is long past the time when climate-change denialists like yourself have any credibility whatsoever, outside of religious revivalist meetings, the Limbaugh show, and Fox "news."

Science is never settled, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and all you've got on the earthquake business are vague speculations by one guy that claims to know something nobody else sees; and on the climate change front you've put yourself squarely on the side of the polluters and their allies against the entire climate science community.

 

But you are apparently unwilling to post predictions yet to happen.

Get Daniel to commit to how unlikely a prediction is, and you can say he has to update his beliefs when it comes true. How sweet would that be?

 

Whether solar flares can trigger earthquakes?
A peer reviewed study, published by a major Earth science organization , doesnt fit into your bias?
It appears you can only see with blinders.

 

A major Earth facing solar flare is occurring at the moment.Piers month prior prediction was off by a few days.
I wont be surprised if there are 6.0s in the next 100 hours.

 

A prediction off by a few days, is a wrong prediction.

Quite frankly, I would be surprised if there weren't a 6.0 in the next hundred hours. USGS says that 6.0s happen roughly every 58 hours.

How about going out on a limb with a prediction?

[For the record, I assign -40 decibans (10,000:1) of prior probability to the hypothesis that Peirs Corbin can predict earthquakes. 1 in 58 hours implies a 82.4% chance of one in the next 100 hours]

 

That's a pretty simple prediction. So far today there have been 8 quakes ranging from 3.5 in Baha, to a 5.5 North of the Ascension Island! I have a Iphone App that reports every earthquake this planet has. When I first installed it over a year ago, I was really surprised that there are about 20 or so earthquakes every day, ranging from 0.X, to the 9.X that hit Japan a year ago. Most are under a 6!
So predicting earthquakes, is kinda like quoting "Thuds First Law" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over!
With 20+ earth quakes a day, a REAL prediction would be WHERE the earthquake will occur.

 

Speculative and retrospective. I don't expect you to understand what that means or why it is not evidence. Retrospective studies are interesting, but they do not indicate a link, much less constitute proof

Exactly.

 

Retrospective studies have a valid place in science. But they are never considered as proof or even evidence. They are taken as merely suggesting possible lines of research. It's like when you see a speck in the distance and you say, "What's that? I think I'll investigate." It may be the sun reflecting off a bit of glass. It may be a real object. Or it may be a bit of dust on your glasses.

Mojo is presenting the study as proof that solar flares can trigger earthquakes. It's really just saying, "Hey, see that speck? What is it? Maybe we should investigate."

 

If you think the world is ending, can I have all your stuff since you won't need it? Then you can laugh at my avariciousness as the planet blows up, I should think.

 

Folks - We need to move on to the next big thing:

June 5 - Venus Transit of the Sun at Sunset

> Get ready for safe viewing of the Sun.
> Be prepared for more Earthquakes (not sure why-made it up)

Next such transit is 2117.

 

I predict that a Russian jet will fall from the sky during this solar flare period thus proving that solar flares attack Russians.

If solar flares cause big earthquakes where did it happen?

Here are my predictions for the next 24 hours starting at 20:53 ET:

It will rain on land somewhere.
The OAT will be below 32F in Anarctica.
Radiation from the Sun will hit the Earth.
I will eat lunch in a restaurant.
Someone will buy a Prius.
For some people life as they know it will end.

Geez, this predicting stuff is easy.

 

Youse guys are raining heavily on my parade. Retrospective studies on correlations between past events is a foundation of science.

Of course we aspire to find a linking causal mechanism, but that cannot proceed without a priori correlations.

Here I was, urging Mojo to do the legwork, because it appears to be a topic of substantial interest to him. We might learn!

But you parade rain, and assailed Mojo is circling the wagons and now only talking about Corbyn predictions. You with the rain caused this!

I was doing my best to nuture a scientist. None of that will happen without a first-person interest in the thing being studied.

So to the dissenters here, kindly zip it.

Back to the meat, as M6 earthquakes are not rare, we should be looking at their temporal density, not just their occurence. Could vary with respect to CME or syzygy. Mojo, do not be deterred, check the data. Who else if not you?

Bin earthqukes in terms of magnitude or latitude/longitude. Just don't settle on this one published study for a mantra. Do your own large analysis! Don't depend on Corbyn.

BTW I hope that your report here of a new CME (coronal mass ejection, solar flare) does not get lost in the sauce. An active sun precludes predictions of a passive sun, new Maunder minimum, and a looming ice age. It appears you are plying both sides of the field there, and a bit more focus would surely help.

 

No kidding aside, a Russian passenger jet crashed into a volcano in Indonesia just today. What should one make of this?

Icarus

 

A budding scientist does not latch onto a crackpot on the basis of a retrospective study and loudly proclaim that the guy can predict earthquakes.

Mojo did not come here saying, "Hey, look at this retrospective study. This is interesting. Let's investigate." What he did was come here saying "This guy has figured out how to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy, and this peer-reviewed study proves it."

If you want to turn him into a scientist, you'll first have to teach him what science is. You'll have to teach him the difference between suggestion, evidence, and proof. You'll have to explain to him why the consensus of scientific opinion in a field carries more weight than one outlier who disagrees with everyone else. In the case of climate science (he is a climate-change denialist) you'll have to explain to him why a person trained in a particular field has more credibility than a person without training in that field and who works in a different field and is being paid by an interested group to undermine the consensus. Good luck with all that.