The challenge of making people buy EV's

And the cell phone was the size of a soldier's field radio.

 

The country isn't filled with people. It's filled with households, and most households already have two or more cars. Chances are good that currently available EVs can meet the commuting needs of one person in the household.

I don't think prices have to come down much more for them to reach greater numbers. Gas prices are going to stay high, and how many people have run afoul of the engine check and emission inspections.

I also don't think the price will come down much more. Most of of the EV's cost is the battery. Any cost savings gained in the battery will likely go to increasing the car's range. 75 miles is enough for a good portion of the country. In areas with winter though, a buffer is needed to counteract the effects of cold on the EV's range. Then longer ranges will help overcome mental hurdles with the public.

In the future, the cars will be available varying sized batteries. What Telsa does with S will be the norm. This will help lower the price. If you want to be able to buy an EV for the same price as an ICE, then you better be willing to embrace battery leasing. I didn't like the idea at first, but it seems the best way to get the most EVs onto the road.

 

I don't see the comparison between the Mk-1, Mod-0 cell phone and the EV.

1990 - Cell phones "didn't work in many places and quality was poor..."
1990 - EV1. 2 seats. 70-100 mile range. Lead acid battery. Fabulously expensive. Built to stay that way.

OK... 2012.

Cell phones are orders of magnitude better in every metric.
Nearly ubiquitous. Almost a basic human right.

EV's?
Better batteries and 2-1/2 more seats, Tesla excluded.
Same basic range, Tesla excluded.
Modest increase in affordability, Tesla excluded.
Some increase in infrastructure in ultra-dense population areas.

Sorry.....but EV technology just isn't scaling up for the exact opposite reason that cell phone technology and deployment has exploded....demand.

Both are subsidized by the government btw. The difference is that cellular subsidies only cover infrastructure.
You don't get a tax credit for buying a smart phone.

Yeah.
I know. I'm an apostate. Just remember that I'm in favor of developing the technology, and I'm paying my share of the cost.
I'm just not on board with the notion that it's going to replace the ICE for 100-percent of the population.
Sorry.


Battle stations manned.
Ship is rigged for depth charge.

 

Cell phones: It is an example of how a clunky, limited, expensive product became something that consumers couldn't possibly live without. The first car telephone was put into service in the 40s IIRC. It took 40 more years to get a hand-held phone. Many people have foregone having a phone at home, but many people still have land lines. Okay, so EV demand is not likely to "explode", but it will only grow with time. All of the factors are pointing in the direction of increasing demand. The Model S solves the range problem, for example. It has set a new standard.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the first mobile phones were also powered by lead-acid. Anyway....

 

Yes, this Model S with a 250 mile range is a new standard, but the charging infrastructure for it does not exist. You go 225 miles and you start begging for a place to plug in.

The infrastructure to charge your 75-100 mile EV, does exist. It's called your driveway, at home (or maybe work). That's why, to me anyway, the emphasis should be on building the reliability, robustness, and affordability of the 75-100 mile car. Not in building an unaffordable touring car or roadster.

 

None of which addressed my question of what will you do when gas prices rise to the levels I mentioned.

 

This is a straw man argument. I don't think anybody has suggested that EVs are EVER going to replace the ICE for 100 percent of the population.
There are some types of vehicles and some driving patterns for which EVs are not well suited.

The EV proponent position is that EVs can work very well for a significant portion of the population. It is my personal position that the EV driving experience is simply the best driving experience I have ever had. Smoother, quiter, more responsive, and less maintainence than any ICE I have ever driven. And as more people see it is simply a more pleasurable experience to own and drive an EV, those whose driving patterns fit within the range limitation and who can afford them, will buy them.

As battery technology improves and gets cheaper, the market will get larger and larger. At some point, it will saturate he market. It won't be at 100 percent of the market. I may be 20%, might be 80%, might be somewhere in the middle. Heck, not even ICE have taken 100% of the market.

 

Go to ChargePoint, and tell me that charging infra does not exist. It would still be a challenge to drive coast-to-coast, but you could do Miami to Boston is a Model S, for example. Having a car with range comparable to today's ICE is an important proof of concept. Next focus needs to be on cost and charge rate.

Charging infra growth depends on EVs and PHVs production. If you buy it, they will build it.

The EV or other alternative forms will not supplant the ICE in this century. But adoption will be widespread in developed nations. EV market share will be large by 2025, but probably not yet a majority.

Find Stations - ChargePoint Network

 

I obviously don't. For what it's worth, I was the first in my neighborhood to buy a hybrid, and the first among those I know. I suspect based upon this alone that I'd be among the first I know to buy an EV.

I would drive a Leaf, even with its range shortcomings, just not at the current price. If I'm paying $30k out of pocket for a car right now I'm buying one that is large and fun. The price would need to come down $10k for me to look at one seriously. I could make it work in my household, but despite some appreciation of the technology I will not pay $10k just for whatever nebulous enjoyment I have knowing that I'm driving an EV.

 

This thread is about "The challenge of making people by [sic] EV's." My first post was the four major requirements for widespread adoption: range, cost, infrastructure, and charge rate. Range is now a solved problem (Model S). Infrastructure is growing exponentially. Cost, as in $/mile of range, is coming down. The charge rate is really the most difficult piece. High current charging is bad for all types of batteries, but the technology does exist (ChAdeMO) for fast charging (5-10 minutes) at low harm. There are few of these types of chargers in the US, and I think only the Leaf and iMiev are compatible. The number of vehicles with fast DC charging adapters will only increase with time, and so will fast DC charge stations. There are also talks of battery swapping, with the goal of a swap being 1 minute or less. That will probably take longer to implement.

It is only a matter of time. In 10 years, you will sell your Prius, because you won't need it.

 

I do see some chargers in NY/LI area. Many of the ones I checked (on ChargePoint site), have the price of $2.95 per hour.

 

How many chargers are needed and range are related. And both will affect how people view 'refueling'.
Low cost, short range EVs will benifit from lots of chargers. However, as costs come down and ranges increase, chargers will be less needed for wider adoption of EVs.

After driving an EV for 2 years, I can't believe the hassle I used to put up with in refueling at a gas station.
However, refueling an EV, although vastly more convenient and less costly, does take a different mindset. The EV needs to be treated more like your phone, plug it in at night, use it all day, then plug it in at night again.

That is the education aspect.
Luckily, I see all areas improving. Car battery costs are going down, range and variety of EVs is improving, more and more people are starting to see and test drive EVs and infrastructure (for those that need it) is improving.

 

You don't need a new car, you need a new job.. No matter what car you drive there is a lot of waste in driving 36000 miles a year.

But more importantly or this discussion, you are projecting. You are driving nearly 3x the national average. As a 1%, little in your case may apply to the majority of drivers.

:focus:

With respect to earlier posts on issues and education. I'll chime in with the group saying that education.. is the #1 issue. But my view of education is broader -- its not just education about EV itset, its also about their own needs vs wants, education of their own irrational fears and financial education (TCO on a Volt is really pretty good, but TCO and Net Present Value computations are not things more people understand. )

 

Cost?? in what way? a Leaf after incentives is about the same as buying any other $27,000 car

Price $38,000 minus fed tax credit 7500 = 30,500 minus sales tax waiver @9+% (varies by location so we do flat 9) 3420 =27080 (average price of new car in Mar 2012 was $30,245)

too expensive?? Bzzzt!! wrong

inferior? in what ways, efficiency? cost to operate? maintenance?

EVs utilize about 80-85% of the power inputted to operate vehicle
ICE uses 18-25% of power inputted.

Gas more efficient?? Bzzt WRONG

Prices vary by location and i am using REAL figures here. now i pay lower than average electricity rates and pay higher than average gas prices. but rates are about 10.5 cents/kwh (this is for green power) and currently $3.93 for gas

cost to run Leaf; under 3 cents a mile. in April (again REAL LIFE HERE!) drove Prius 1387 miles using $121 in gas. drove Leaf 1325 Miles using $30 in electricity. do the math. round it up or down in favor of gas, use your head...it does not matter how you do the math

cost to operate?? Bzzzt Wrong, gas loses again

i am recommended to get battery check once a year (free for 3 years) and check brake fluid... that is it other than the general checking of things that spin all of which is equal to gas car (well, not really the gas car has a lot more spinning things)
verses the gas car... ok, we long knew the score on that...

maintenance?? Bzzt gas loses again.

so, anyway i guess we "could" discuss range but before i do that, lets discuss needs and how the car industry markets itself.

question #1; what is the mainstream car in America today??
...
...
...
**i think i hear crickets**

tough question aint it? well its actually a question that cannot be answered since other than pickup trucks no single car or type of car comprises of more than 20% of sales volume.

what we truly have is niches. some niches are large, like pickup trucks, some are not like Cobra Mustangs and Corvettes.

each niche markets to a segment of the population that has a very specific need. now the more "general" the need, the likelihood the car will sell more

so, lets examine the niche that electric cars will fill

1) first and MOST important, a 2+ car household. as much as i am into EVs i would have never done it if i had to rely on just the Leaf.

2) regular need to drive under 60 miles a day

3) a place to plug in (garage, carport or understanding HOA/condo association) or public charging spot a few blocks from your apartment (we have a Seattlite who has been charging his Leaf this way for over 7 months for FREE)

4)and lastly, since this is how it normally goes, the most important is valued the least but then again that is what Congress is for right? but the desire to lessen the flow of cash out of the country and to support a local company.

now that last part is confusing because we are buying a Japanese product and even that will soon change, but realize that after a product (no matter where it comes from) is purchased in the US, it becomes a US product in that it will be used here, so it will be supported here. (we dont buy car insurance from Mutual of Japan)

ok, so now this has been totally one-sided, so we will address range.

if the top 3 niches requirements (the 4th is not really a "transportation" thing) do not apply to you, then chose one of the other niche vehicles

 

... but NOT "the only basis of much relevance" to those who, at the very least, are considering an EV purchase AND who can reasonably afford one.

 

How to make people buy EVs??? Stop using long range and affordability in the same sentence. The affordable EVs, Leaf, iMiev, are not long range. the long range ones, Tesla, Fisker, are not affordable.

To me, a city dweller, range is not even a consideration. size of the car is. The smaller the better.

For now, the EV is either affordable or longer range. Maybe twenty years from now it can be both. But this is no reason for people not to jump in now and actually benefit both economically or for fun...or the other reasons like oil wars and the environment.