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what is the military price of oil use, $500B or $0

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by austingreen, May 20, 2012.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I say 0. Others repeat $500B.

    There have been some good studies out that say other than wars, the US spends $60B-$90B. I find these analysis compelling, but has the military bought us anything. If we impose a military oil tax, isn't that just a rubber stamp to continue the military spending, of which defense of oil fields is only a small part.

    Which comes down to the question, even with the high oil use the US now has, and I would like to take steps to lower it, isn't it time to end the illusion that military oil policy is the correct one.

    Avoiding the Burden: the Carter Doctrine in perspective
    The link above gives you excellent perspective of what was happening at the time, and at the beginning of the Reagan administration. One thing it did not know, which we have later learned, was the carter administration was not completely surprised by the Russians in Afghanistan, it actually did those things the soviets accused.

    Brzezinski Interview | David N. Gibbs
    The other thing that came out after that paper was Carter greenlighted the Iraqi invasion of Iran. As damaging as that all was, most of the damage of the doctrine could have been ended in 1981, but Reagan went all in continuing it and expanding it.

    The Carter Doctrine at 30 | World Affairs Journal
    I'm all for raising oil taxes for the right reasons. But let's end this bad policy and spend less blood and treasure in the Middle East and South East Asia. and the cold war is over, we won, lets get the peace dividend.
     
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  2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney EditProfOptInfoCustomUser Title

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    The reason to use taxes to pay for the military cost of protection of oil and other resources is the only way to get it into the heads of ignorant and stupid Americans that efficiency isn't about denying their freedom.
     
  3. Mr Incredible

    Mr Incredible Chance favors the prepared mind.

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    The military is not just about protecting oil resources. There are a lot of other bad things to protect against and to deter. Plus, a good oilquestion might be what's the cost of foreign oil vs thecosts of domestic production. Figure in all the drops in oil use from all reasons you wish, but we'll need oil for a very long time indeed.
     
  4. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    This argument is a mish-mash of military use to protect resource interests, and military use to play strategy games with competing countries. While there is some overlap in the motivations, they are far from being the same.

    Bryz makes it quite clear he was pursuing the cold war with the USSR, as did Reagan. Since the gulf really only has value as an oil lane, it seems to me more than fair to view its protection as an oil use cost. Same with the Saudi Arabian peninsula.

    Wars over natural resources have been going on a *long* time; oil is just a current and pernicious one.
     
  5. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    This is one of the really troublesome aspects how our country is organized. If I look at it from every different angle, the result is that one person (The President of the USA) has been given TOTAL authority to initiate whatever action/war/police action he (or she) so desires. Likewise, it takes the TOTAL initiative of the CinC to end wars and end big overseas mobilizations.
     
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  6. Hidyho

    Hidyho Senior Member

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    The actual cost of protecting the Middle East in the over 30 years so far, is in the neighborhood of $4 Trillion, add the Iraq and Afghanistan war, and the cost of the Middle East so far will be in the $8 Trillion range. Most of that expense was playing king of the hill and protecting oil company and wealthy Middle East kingdoms and corporation property.
     
  7. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    "The Congress shall have Power To ....To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;" -- U.S. Constitution



    The President has NO authority to declare war. (Doesn't mean he doesn't do it anyway, of course)
     
  8. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    It's pretty clear that the western world mostly ignored the Mideast until oil became a valuable asset. I suspect we would still be ignoring them if not for oil.

    Tom
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    +1
    Only a minority in the congress seem to even want to enforce the constitution. Here we have a president that as a Senator did want to enforce the constitution, but as president is fine executing a war without congress.

    Kucinich Sues Obama For Violating War Powers Act In Libya

    In the case of libya, many would agree with the use of force, but the constitution has not stopped the POTUS from making war without congresses declarations.

    "Once they get the upper hand, they can start the war, they can run the war"..."get the people in harms way, and then say your unamerican if you vote against this process" - Ron Paul
     
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I am with you about an oil tax, to price in pollution and scarcity. I haven't heard a Real American ever say driving an SUV was about freedom, that seems to all come from corporate shills and politicians.

    But I simply disagree that the military is protecting "our" oil. The start of this doctrine had the cia funding and training islamic fundamentalist "freedom fighters" to get the russian military into Afghanistan. We now call these people terrorists. It also had the president green lighting Iraq to Invade Iran, a war that many believe cost 1M people their lives. They just were not american lives. The next president following the policy armed more terrorists, and sat by and watched our new ally use chemical weapons, you know the WMDs we could not find this time around. Regan even routed weapons through Isreal to Iran, so they could defend themselves from from the monster we helped create. I don't think many Americans would vote to protect "our" oil this way if given a choice.

    Which is why reducing its overall use is important. But whether it is the cold war or control of oil, I would not say the military has been used well lately. If we had killed the doctrine, the US would still have fought in afghanistan, but perhaps we would be out in less than the decade we have had troops there. Support for Libyans freedom from our enemy quadaffi might have been there too, but I'm not sure. If we had stopped say in 2000, what we would not have had was the second gulf war. We also might have been in a better position negotiating with Iran if we had renounced our complicity in the Iran/Iraq war. If we had stopped the policy in 1985, the first gulf war wound not have happened, and I doubt there would have been terrorist using planes to blow up the twin towers.

    I would say you are high, but in the right neighborhood in costs. If you divide your number of $4T for non war military and divide it by the 32 years of the policy you come up with $125B/year which is not far from the other $90B estimates. The costs to the US of the wars were lower mainly because other countries funded much of the first gulf war and part of the afghan war. But IMHO the cost of the wars were higher because of the human tradgedies which do not get accounted for. But it seems you are in agreement with me that the policies need to end, and not oil taxed to continue them.
     
  11. Hidyho

    Hidyho Senior Member

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    It was only the first Gulf War that was funded by other countries, if you look at the amount of money from the US that was given to the so called group of nations in Iraq, in the current so called Operation Freedom, it was mostly a US paid war, with the US carrying by far, almost the full amount. The total additional cost of Iraq and Afghanistan in the current wars will be very close, if not over, to $4 Trillion, which is not even close to the $50 Billion stated at the start.

    And here is a study that states it has cost $7 Trillion+ so far protecting the oil:
    http://content.usatoday.com/communi...illion-over-last-three-decades/1#.T7qun9TlJ8E
     
  12. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Remember that the President, and only the President has the "codes" to use nuclear weapons. Certainly something that seems to be at odds with the Constitution given that using nuclear weapons on any country would be hard to classify as something other than war.....and I know of no congressional involvement in that chain.

    Or to restate it differently, I sure wish Congress would take their Constitutional responsibilities much more seriously.
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Thanks. I never said that the gulf war II had shared costs only the first gulf war as you seem to agree. I have no idea where the $50B came from. I was stating many studies had the non-war costs at $60B-$90B per year. I did find the paper
    http://www.princeton.edu/oeme/articles/US-miiltary-cost-of-Persian-Gulf-force-projection.pdf
    It has the cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars from 2002-2007 at $2.3 Trillion in 2007 inflation adjusted dollars. The author seems to have updated the paper, but that was beyond a pay wall. The difference between this analysis and others seems to be activity based costing(ABC) based on aircraft carriers location, versus proportional costing based on men and equipment. Which leads you to the question, if you didn't have carriers in the gulf would you cut the equipment. Which I doubt, but it is a rational for ABC.

    It is interesting to ask since this was using carriers to be a proxy for activity why we need so may. Is it to stop an oil monopoly?

    New Navy budgets may sink plans for aircraft carriers - Washington Times
     
  14. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    peace div? (sp) Such a powerful ending of your orig post, perhaps we should correct for posterity.

    I tend to agree with you. We have confused the public by saying nothing can be taken at face value, until we add all the hidden costs to society. But more often than not, the exercise of adding hidden costs has become a game of political football. In most cases we do not need to add hidden costs, unless we are trying to mislead people.
     
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  15. Hidyho

    Hidyho Senior Member

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    Well the problem in a nutshell is that the current conservative belief, is that we need to spend more money on the military, even Romney wants to spend an additional $2+ Trillion over the current budgets over 10 years. When is enough, enough?
     
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  16. ProximalSuns

    ProximalSuns Senior Member

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    And what are we defending against with the US military? Not Russia. Not China. It's all oil war, fighting them or preparing to fight them. It's what has created the $14T in debt over the last 30 years while SS and Medicare ran $4T surpluses.

    US yearly military spending is $1.4T per the US Budget 2012. 2012 does not look to be much less. This has been true for last 20 years of the constant Middle East wars.

    All the spending comes back to being able to field a 200,000 combat troops occupation army in the Middle East.
     
  17. massparanoia

    massparanoia Active Member

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  18. massparanoia

    massparanoia Active Member

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  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Enough was enough before I was born:mad:
    The Fiscal Year 2013 Defense Budget: A Report Card
     
  20. ProximalSuns

    ProximalSuns Senior Member

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    Thanks for proving my point. Remember that from 1990 to 2006 the war appropriations were done as "supplementals" to try and hide the cost. This was ended in 1990 which is why you see the jump.

    As you see from the SS graph, it will be in surplus to 2050 but the real issue is that it has run a huge surplus since the 1980 SS tax increases. So much so that it "loaned" the US goverment over $4T so that SS and Medicare Combined did not contribute anything to US deficits or debt while the $1T+ oil wars were the main cause of debt. Military bankrupting economies is as old as Rome, Athens, Moscow and Washington.

    In US case, the $1.4T a year raises a question of what is the threat? US should do zero based budgeting on military. Russia, China? No threat there especially with "front line" nations, Europe on the West and Japan, Korea and Taiwan in the East spending as much as Russia and China respectively.

    That leaves...ta da...the oil wars as the sole justification for US military spending.

    Another interesting aspect is note the decline in defense spending from 1992-2000 when the US ran budget surpluses and US/Debt GDP declined for the first time since 1980. Cementing the link between US military spending and US deficit/debt of the last 30 years.