May 5th... the next super-moon, could bring in a super quake...

I did look at the link. It isn't claiming what you are claiming, though I admit there is some ambiguity in what is meant by 'beginning to flip'. What exactly does that mean?

But I invite you to try to draw the magnetic field lines for a sun with 2 positive poles and no negative poles. (which the link also doesn't claim). My recollection is fuzzy, but I believe I heard a proof that that was Mathematically impossible. All spheres must have at least two poles, (that I am reasonable sure of), and think it was that they need to be of opposite polarity.

[EDIT: Nope, I was wrong. See: [ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hairy_ball_theorem[/ame]

<emily latella> Nevermind. </emily latella>]

 

I don't see the connection between the hairy ball theorem, which concerns tangents, and magnetic field lines. Specifically, you are right about using field lines. Try as one may, it's impossible to have a closed field line that exits the sphere but does not enter the sphere.

 

Corwyn,
For your further amusement here are further predictions for this month.
After last week,I dont have high confidence of the Sun cooperating though.
But here goes anyway.
May 19-21, Level 4 ,Very high earthquake ,volcanoes Ring of fire South,tornadoes USA
May 23-25, Level5 ,Highest level earthquake ,volcanoes Ring of fire Equator ,tornadoes USA
BTW Piers does say the moons position in an eclipse will enhance Solar effects.

 

Did we have the SuperQuake, or did we all miss it? LOL

 

We did on Wednesday... It was deep but it was directly under the city

Rock and roll

 

Corwyn and Daniel are awfully quiet.
For the first prediction period May 19-21 there was 3 earthquakes above 6.0
2 volcanic eruptions. A tornado sworm over Kansas.
Opposed to the beginning of May ,there were No solar flares,No major earthquakes,No volcanoes,No tornadoes

 

I didn't have s formal correspondence in mind, just an intuitive thing. If you project the field lines back onto the surface, does that help?

 

Corwyn has been busy. You are welcome to do the Bayesian analysis yourself, you know.

May 19-21: Level 4 ,Very high earthquake ,volcanoes Ring of fire South,tornadoes USA

Earthquake: (assuming very high means above 6.0, and highest means 7.0+, but you really should be more precise): Successful prediction.

Updated Probabilities:

Corwyn from 0.00085 to 0.00008755
Mojo from 0.72 to 0.7416

Are Volcanoes independent of Earthquakes? I don't think so, so I will pass on that math.

Tornadoes: An average of 276 Tornadoes appear in the US in May. or 0.37 per hour. So the probability of a tornado in the US in three days is more than 99.999999%. Successful prediction. Updated probabilities are basically unchanged.

One is left to wonder how Corbyn is able to only manage a 80-85% success rate when he is predicting things which are so hugely likely to take place.

 

Prediction for May 23rd to 25th.
Resulted in 1 large volcanic eruption in Japan.2 minor eruptions Guatamala and Mexico.
at least 2 Earthquakes Japan and Norway.Tornado outbreak in Wisconsin and Kansas was minor BUT the potential of the system was huge .A major cold front mixed with warm front over 3-4 midwest States.This storm front occurred EXACTLY as Piers Corbyn predicted OVER A MONTH AGO.
How is it possible to predict a weather event a month in advance?
Because he understands the true mechanism of weather and climate.
By the way,last year he predicted a month in advance,major snow in the eastern USA on Halloween .
What was the probability of that occurrence?

 

Simple. Predict things which are 99.9999% likely to happen. See previous notes on tornadoes.

Why don't you try to figure that out?

p.s. I will do the updates when I get some time.

 

For 50 or 60 years, the earthquakes and solar dynamics have been very thoroughly recorded. Much longer or course for sun/moon alignments, but the recent decades would seem to be ideal for statistical testing.

I suggested already that something along those lines would be much more persuasive than Corbyn defining his own tests of significance. Certainly more persuasive than just repeating them here.

But, unless some Corbyn fan somewhere actually steps up, I suppose it won't get done.

Volcanic eruptions are too rare for a compelling test - there is just no substitute for a large sample size. Tornadoes perhaps in between, I couldn't call it either way. But the earthquake & solar records? Man o man talk about low-hanging fruit.

You go back in time even longer and there is a filter on recorded eathquakes. If they were strong and in a place to kill many people, they have been recorded for at least 500 years. Maybe more than 1000. There is at least one interesting period to examine, the Maunder minimum when the sun got all quiet.

I wonder, if from 1650 to about 1720, there were many fewer recorded earthquakes than other 70-year intervals before and after?

Hard for me to imagine a solar-control fan who would not be interested in digging in to that.

I've read that the BBC was planning a weather-forecasting contest between Corbyn and, well, whoever. Planning since January, but they have not yet developed an objective test. I don't think it's quite as easy as Corbyn (or anyone) declaring themselves right.

Or maybe the BBC already knows that Corwyn is right and they are hiding the evidence.

(insert suppressed giggle smiley here)

 

Given this (unrebutted) assumption, I am calling this a failed prediction. I suspect that I will get flack for this, which is why I have repeatedly stressed that predictions must be as precise as possible.

Tornadoes aren't worth bothering with, as the prediction is hugely likely (compared to earthquakes).
And as I mentioned, I am wimping out on volcanoes given that they are likely not independent events from earthquakes, which makes the math complicated.

 

I wasnt clear enough.
R5 is the highest level warning ,meaning the highest probability of earthquakes occurring.
It has nothing to do with the intensity of the earthquakes.
The intensity is solely determined by the amount of stress stored in the tectonic plates.
The timing is being predicted ,not the intensity.(which is impossible unless you can gauge the stress in the Earths plates.)
So your criteria is misguided.
Piers made a solid prediction for May 23-25 for earthquakes ,volcanoes and tornadoes.
BTW the Wisconsin tornado was the FIRST IN MAY.
They dont happen every 3 hours.Thats a asinine analysis.
Piers made a specific prediction.For a specific weather formation.In a specific location and time.
THERE HAS BEEN NO OTHER TORNADOES IN THE REGION.
This was a month in advance prediction.
Its phenomenal and if you cant recognize that fact then its only your bias that prevents you from being lucid.










9

 

Next prediction June 1-3 ,R3 on a scale of 5,
Volcanoes Earthquakes Tornadoes.





9[/quote]

 

So if the 'highest level' is a confidence, what numbers would you like me to use? The math works just as well that way.

You might have mentioned that before the prediction failed.

You should understand that YOU are the one guiding me, so if I am misguided, you should try to be clearer.

If you have a better analysis, it would behoove you to mention it. I just looked at the NWS, took the average number of tornadoes in May, across the entire country. I am not an expert on tornadoes. Feel free to provide expertise.

No. I am just doing the math. Just how phenomenal is it? In exact numbers? That is what we are trying to determine here. So far the numbers don't indicate that I should recognize anything. In fact, they say that my initial assessment was overly generous to the hypothesis.

 

So your claim is a 60% confidence, yes?
What are the minimum Richter scale cutoffs for Earthquakes, 6.0?
If so, we can use the previously calculated 82.4% historic rate of earthquakes of 6.0 or greater (over a three day period).

Does all the meet with your approval?

 

Claim 1:

Claim 2:

Claim 3:

CONTRADICTORY claims. Should I go back and calculate the updated probabilities for a failed prediction on May 19-21 with respect to tornadoes?

 

List of United States tornadoes in May 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

The prediction was 100% correct.The fact that you cant comprehend that is astonishing.