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May 5th... the next super-moon, could bring in a super quake...

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by amm0bob, Apr 30, 2012.

  1. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    I dont know where you got 60% figure from.Not me.
    There may be an ratio of 1 earthquake per every 3 days.BUT THERE WERE NO 6.0 EARTHQUAKES FOR 2 WEEKS IN THE MIDDLE OF MAY.

     
  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    There is no contradiction in those statements.
     
  3. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  4. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    No it was unclear. But don't worry, I am not counting it. Which I recall warning you about multiple times. As by the way, was your most recent prediction. Please confirm my latest assumptions.
     
  5. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Duplicate.
     
  6. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Ok, I have apparently wasted my time here. You are clearly in your own private reality. ​

    For anyone else still reading this, here is a video of a non-existant tornado on the first of May 2012.​

     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If the goal is simply to promote Corbyn's predictions and self-declared successes, then the actions required are straightforward. I would not dispute at all that mojo is doing that well here. Curmudgeonly perhaps, but that would seem beside the point.

    If the goal instead were to test the mechanisms underlying those predictions then I am obliged to suggest that looking at this year (or a few years) is not optimal. The tool is statistical analysis, and the strength comes from sample size.

    Global earthquakes are well characterized for several decades. I'd like to say 5 decades, but 3 is a surer bet. In 30 years there have been
    400 of M6.5 or greater
    4000 of M5.5 or greater
    40,000 of M4.5 or greater

    The USGS tells me so, and they will tell you where, when, how strong and how deep. For free.

    I do not know how many sunspots, solar flares or cosmic-ray arrivals. But I am just as confident that those data are also available for decades. For free.

    It baffles my why someone deeply interested in Corbyn's proposed mechanisms would not explore these data for statistically signifcant patterns. I am much less interested in ongoing predictions, and sample size/statistical significance is exactly the reason why.

    Just as in climate science, the experimental subject (earth) is large and unreplicated. In that field, people examine historical data (and paleoproxy information) for correlations. Significant findings provide a degree of support for proposed mechanisms, or they do not.

    As well, people can be justifiably dubious when some current event is treated as 'proving that climate change is happening and caused by xyz'. The parallel does not seem subtle to me.
     
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  8. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    M6.0 - 9km SE of Yacuiba, Bolivia 2012-06-02

    1 June 2012 Mexico's Popocatepetl Volcano has blasted a tower of ash over nearby towns

    Tornadoes Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia Maryland

    [/quote]
     
  9. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    june.jpg
    June is particularly active due to Solar Maximum.R5 periods June 6-7,19-21.
    R4 periods June 15-17
    June 29-July1
    Pier Corbyn predicted a year ago that last year and this year would be particularly active for Solar events.