august hybrid car sales

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Bob Wilson

 

I agree 3500lbs is plenty for what most people tow. I think the 2000lbs the 2013 2.o ecoboost Explorer is rated for will do the job. The Highlander hybrid handily beats it city mpg, but they are equal on the highway. Like the non hybrid Highlanders it too is thousands less to buy than the HiHy. It also has about 10 cu.ft. more cargo space than the HiHy. Heck, I think the diesel Jetta is rated for 2000lbs for those who want the most fuel efficient vehicle for light towing.

So while there are two hybrid SUVs that can meet the majority of people's tow needs, one is a luxury brand and the other is priced as one. Which is why hybrid SUVs don't have a large number of sales. They are too expensive for the benefits. Perhaps when first introduced the price was jusified, but ICE SUVs are catching up for less cost. HSD isn't up too the job of providing great mileage in a SUV or truck while stiff offering the expected truck capabilities. Toyota knows this. It is why they teamed with Ford to develop a truck hybrid system.

It isn't question of power. The frame, drive train, and brake system also have to be up to the task. Two-mode wasn't just to get around patents. It was to retain drive train hardiness under high demands. Toyota needed an annoying traction control to protect theirs.

The 2WD and 4WD RX hybrids both have the same power rating. One is rated for 3500lbs and the other zero. Plenty of people have towed with the Prius and its zero rating. So Toyota might be playing it too cautiously, but they designed the HSD so might have real reasons for limiting the to w ratings. Perhaps there's a concern that the added stress is too much on the PSD without a rear motor to share the load. Or maybe regen from the rear helps in slowing a trailer down.

The 600h as been out on the road for a few years now. If Toyota felt it could handle truck duties, they wouldn't need Ford, and could have probably stuck it in a Tacoma by now.

 

in real world, you easily 30% better consumption in RX450h than in Explorer Ecoboost, but i guess thats "close enough", "catching up" lol.

I am checking on fuelly, and Ecoboost has no better fuel consumption in real life than their V6's. Only thing it is catching up in is EPA tests.

Checking some long term tests as on Edmunds, they confirm 20 mpg averages... on the other hand, RX450h averages 26+ mpg... 30%? Awesome new technologies.

RXh sells really well... Highlander is very expensive and barely in stock ever. Between the two, they will 20k+ a year in USA, and probably around 40k+ in the world. Not bad for expensive cars.

I doubt Ford has big R&D money to spend, in fact we know they dont... with their limited truck sales, I bet Toyota is looking to spread the costs of developing their hybrid system over more vehicles, as Toyota does not sell anywhere close to enough trucks. They will probably end up in "licensing agreement" like they did before, and buy technology from Toyota suppliers.

Hybrid truck would sell well only in USA due to the cost... rest of the world that buys Toyota Hilux will rather get inexpensive/dirty diesels.

 

With August 2012 and 38,369 vs 2008 and 26,045, which is 47% growth, I am curious why are you expecting more growth in Plugins? I dont see any significant new changes in plugin market, do you? What are these new plugins that will drive the sales? On the other hand, most new cars will have hybrid versions... for instance new Rav4, new Avalon, new ES300h from Toyota, then new Ford hybrids as well...

I know you are talking about %, so going up from 30k to 40k a year might be a lot, but it is still very low number compared to hybrid sales... which again, will be raising with new models.



These new models could add at least 50% to the next year sales of hybrids in the US. GM with their mild hybrids helps the numbers although they really suck.




Right now, and in the past 12 years, main problem of hybrid volume sales is that only Toyota sells them... they are on track to do >1.1 million worldwide this year, which is more than 10% of their sales... if other manufacturers had hybrids as 10% of their sales, we would be talking of 3x bigger sales in US alone.

Honda, Ford, GM have opportunity to step up the numbers next year, but for more, industry has to follow.

 

This is not a Ford vs Toyota discussion. It is why have hybrid SUVs and trucks not had any penetration into the market. You ignored my main point that the HiHy is less capable of real truck duties than the ICE model while costing thousands more. A person can buy an used fuel miser with the difference. I bet most HiHys sold are done so because their is no minivan hybrid available. That does not help in getting truck buyers into hybrids.

The Tundra is a FSP. The new Ram will have a 20/25mpg model capable of towing around 6000#. If HSD was capable of better or similiar performance in the Tundra, why has Toyota not done so? Do they want to lose more market share? The fact is HSD does not scale up for trucks. Otherwise Toyota, with or without Ford, would not need to develop a truck hybrid system.

Cars and trucks are getting more efficient engines and transmissions. We will see more start/stop systems with the new CAFE rules. Mazda is even putting a capacitor based regen braking system into their non hybrid cars.

Of course the best fuel saving technology is a feedback system to train the driver in efficienct driving techniques. All hybrids have some type of system. Most other cars do not. If the RX did not have one and the Explorer did, would the economy gap be has great?

 

Many are willing to pay for a 2500 class truck with diesel for just the expected gains in fuel mileage. If two mode was an actual $6000 upgrade, I think GM could have sold them in plain work trucks.

 

When I read GM sold the plant making the two-modes, their White Plains MD facility, I figured it was not close to their core technology path.

Bob Wilson

 

Yes, the crew cab and all the standard goodies were to mask the true cost of two-mode. Just illustrates the point that there isn't more penetration of hybrids into the SUV and truck market, because of the lack of a viable hybrid system. At a true $6000 premium, plenty of people would have bought it in a more reasonably priced trim. While lacking to the plain V8 in towing, it was still plenty, and the city mpg was excellent.