Sept 18,932 :: 21,111 :: 16,640 :: June 19,150

Toyota has a commanding lead from the ZVW30, Camry, Prius c, Prius v, Prius PHV, and three Lexus models. The architecture works and Toyota is expanding their foot print in the market.

VW's Jetta and Passat are standing tall and the Golf is still there. But they don't have the width and depth of vehicles. Still, better than expected considering the cost of diesel and small size.

GM no longer looks totally lost in the wilderness thanks to the Volt and Malibu but just barely. Sad to say, 10 years late. I'm reminded of what Churchhill said,"The Americans will eventually do the right thing after they have exhausted all other possibilities."

Ford is going through a model transition which is a problem when there are only a few models. The real sleeper is the MKZ Hybrid. I've long known a hybrid drive train is relatively quiet and silence is the mark of quality.

As for Honda, where are you? They have all but fallen off the face of the earth. Yet their IMA hybrid is less bad than VW's Jetta. Perhaps it is too narrow of a solution or something else is going on. I just can't tell.

It is a good thing there are lots of models. It is a bad thing none of them are a small pickup or utility van. But I've long suspected they may work best with a higher peak power but lower energy system, possibly hydraulic. Still Toyota has hybrid utility vehicles and minivans in Japan, they are not exported.

Bob Wilson

 

This makes a lot of sense. The 1.8L and redesigned, 'Prius c' 1.5L, are significantly improved and a good base to spread to their other models. The SAE paper on the 'Prius c' with the reduction in traction battery to 20 modules compared to the NHW11, 38 modules.

My ad hoc towing experiment, 1,700 lbs of airplane and trailer 600 miles behind a ZVW30, suggests it can work. It would need lower gearing, maximum speed of 90 mph, and stronger suspension along with the mass reductions shown by the 'Prius c' suggests the Toyota hybrid drivetrain could work.

Diesel has been around for a long time but its penetration remains modest in the pickup and light duty truck market. But if hybrid drive trains can penetrate to the same ratio as hybrid vs diesel does in our mid-sized sedans today:

• 10,806 - ZVW30, 1.8L, 50 MPG
• 4,474 - VW Jetta TDI, 2.0L, 40 MPG (compact class, not mid-size)

Not to trivialize the challenges, the light truck and utility van market are about bare-metal and cost. Operational costs are a harder sell but given the size of that market, well worth the experiment. Perhaps instead of nationwide, start with the CARB states or even a smaller demo run with a selected corporate fleet. For example, most Toyota service shops have a courtesy van to run customers to and from work. This might be a good place to start with a North American sized van.

What I don't have is much insight to Japan's private, lab, the Japanese market. The Estima never reached North American shores although it has found its way into the gray, export market. It may be Toyota has already run the experiment in Japan and decided it doesn't make sense.

Bob Wilson