Will batteries drop to $200/kwh by 2020

yes.

 

Demand for electricity goes UP also.

 

Great, here is link to CCGT power plants , which doubles efficiency
Combined cycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Prices *may* drop to $200 kwh, or they *may* NOT.

This is news ?

 

..."effective" price for the Li battery, whereas:
Effective Price = Batt Price - ($7500 fed rebate + state rebates)
may not go down too much by 2020.

 

Sorry to bring back an older topic.
But if batteries use lithium ions, wouldn't the price of the batteries go up as the availability of lithium goes down?

 

Lithium is actually a very small component of the cost so is not likely to be a significant factor in pricing.

There are only perceived lithium supply constraints because the cheapest sources are limited. If the price were to increase the "economical" supply would jump significantly, not least because lithium recycling would become economical.

 

Yes, but with proper policies in place plug-in electric vehicles should make electricity cheaper.

Why?
- The natural idle time (and therefore charging time) for plug-in vehicles is off-peak. Off-peak electricity use charging adds demand when there is plenty of spare capacity, meaning that the percentage utilization increases without lowering the grid efficiency. The result is that the infrastructural cost per kWh decreases.
- Because consumers with plug-ins will have a higher percentage of off-peak use, a time-of-use tariff becomes more appropriate and affordable. Once a consumer has a time-of-use tariff they have more incentive to lower other peak use and shift other use off-peak, further improving efficient grid utilization.
- Since a plug-in vehicle owner increases their electricity use, a significant amount of the prior expenditure on gasoline now goes to utilities. Combined with higher grid utlization this should allow for more investment in infrastructural improvements that can further improve efficiency, such as better interconnects to allow wider distribution or accept more intermittant sources such as wind and solar.
- With a large number of plug-in vehicles on the grid a large demand sink would become available. Given that cars are idle for long periods, often longer than is needed to charge them, it would be possible with "smart charging" to balance other demand. (I don't think vehicle-to-grid is as easy or likely because it requires the ability to supply the grid. Availability of vehicle-to-grid would depend more on solar continuing to fall in price).
- Even if smart charging isn't available, cheap batteries would make it easier for generators and utilities themselves to make use of batteries for storage. To have a significant effect, grid storage doesn't have to have enormous capacity: it just needs to have enough capacity and charge and discharge capacity to provide enough of a buffer that it has a measurable effect in reducing the variation in peaker plant output, or increasing the allowed output from intermittant sources.

But note, this requires good policy in place. For example:
- encourage home TOU tariffs
- discourage provision of free public charging; encourage public charging based on TOU rates
- treat free workplace charging as a taxable benefit; encourage metered charging.

Studies have indicated that PEV owners will charge opportunistically. Opportunistic charging is a bad thing when it happens near peak demand. For now, the small number of PEVs means it's not such an issue, but as volume increases, it will become more relevant.

 

In spite of price reductions, the air-breathing and combustion gas exhausting power systems have a weight advantage because they only have to carry one reactant, the fuel. The other reactant is oxygen from the air and the combustion-products are tossed overboard significantly reducing the mass. In contrast, a closed-cycle battery carries both reactants and their by-product(s). This mass problem gives the open-cycle, air-breathing and exhausting power systems an advantage that regardless of price is hard for batteries to overcome.

The reason we have hybrids is the battery subsystem compensates for inefficient modes of the air-breathing engine. It allows an efficiency optimized engine to perform almost all of the time at or near peak efficiency which non-hybrids can never match with equal payloads and acceleration . . . even turbo-diesel cycles.

Bob Wilson

 

I think it's an overstated issue. Weight matters much less at high speeds, and an ICE is inefficient at low speeds. The limitation for batteries is the volumetric effect of low density.

 

I'm seeing the thermodynamic efficiencies of the ICE in our hybrids are close to power plant efficiencies . . . pre-grid. The grid itself reduces the power plant, net energy.

The only amount of electrical power needed in a hybrid is enough to keep the ICE in efficient modes and that turns out to be rather modest . . . very close to what our current Prius has for that size of vehicle. However, I would like the option of 'topping' to provide initial ICE warm-up, especially catalytic converter light-off.

The advantage of a vehicle resident ICE is weight starting with fuel that translates into range. Whether fossil or bio, using air for one reactant and dumping the products overboard, works for me.

If (when) battery costs decrease and more capacity is available, I'm a happy camper but not necessarily an eager shopper. But it is good to have choices.

Bob Wilson

 

i am not so sure that availability of lithium is such large issue right now... the fact that China put some restrictions means that mines are now being opened around the world.

Toyota purchased rights to mine in Argentina that can cover all needs of Japan for lithium... Japan, not just Toyota. And as we know, lithium is already used a lot in computing, probably more than it will be used for next decade in automotive applications.

 

Thanks for explaining that. I never thought of it that way--it's alomst a metaphor for all externaliies, where you impose costs on someone else through your own (economic actions).

I wish this website still had a THANKS button instead of a LIKE button. I want to THANK you for explaining this, but I don't LIKE the fact that it is true.

Ken