Not if, when 'Sandy' storm power goes out

had the tree limbs pruned away from the house and 12kw onan propane fired generator all tuned up and ready sir! bailed us out last year for a total of ten days of power outages. runs everything but the a/c. if only it could keep the cable on.

 

Based on the latest run of the European model (ECMWF - 12Z 26 Oct.), the storm is projected to move into New Jersey by around 12Z 30 Oct. The minimum central pressure of the hybrid low is projected to be 940 millibars! For reference, the "perfect storm" in 1991 had a minimum central pressure of 972 mb.

Everyone in the northeastern CONUS needs to follow this closely...

 

Another site with several mesoscale models compared:

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Forecasts

 

Katrina had a low central pressure of 902 mb (26.71 in)

It is not just the depth of the central pressure, but the gradient that produces the killer winds. (not to mention the collision of warm, tropical, wet air with colder, drier continental air)

This should be really interesting for weather junkies,, as long as they don't have to live through it.

Icarus

 

my 92 year old father lives on the water. he's getting nervous and asked me if i could come down and put plywood on his windows. if the track stays on atlantic city, i think he'll be okay. but if it starts moving north...

 

Hurricanes' major effects are usually concentrated on a path 100 km wide or less. Sandy is quite unusual. Over 500 km wide, or more, conditions will be very similar. winds in the 50-70 mph range, very heavy rain, and inland over the northern half, heavy snow. The storm surge will also be wide, but the 2 or 2.5 meters surge much narrower. That part looks like NJ/NYC, which is why those two areas have made such extensive (disruptive) preparations.

Aside form the likely, wide, and long power outages Bob mentioned first, I think this storm will be worst in terms of surge and flooding. If you have been almost flooded in the past, it looks like a good chance that Sandy will get you this time.

I don't much like the media stories saying "Sandy has not left us much time to prepare..." This has been on the radar for a long time. My concern is that people who generally disregard "crying wolf" forecasts may learn that sometimes, there is a wolf.

 

it's always a difficult call. i prefer to err on the side of caution. not everyone shares that opinion. i have friends who are planning a jack daniels party at an oceanfront home on cape cod.

 

Doesn't look too bad for the Washington DC. Projected 3-day rainfall peaks at 7", and we are in the area of highest rainfall.


By contrast, Agnes in 1972 had peak areas of 14+", and did widespread damage to the infrastructure of the time. Sandy isn't going to be a hurricane when the center makes landfall. Highest sustained wind speeds predicted here are, at present, 40 gusting to 60. We'll get some flooding, and it'll bring down some trees, but I'm really not expecting much.

By contrast, 3" of rain, falling as ice and snow, in two days -- that could be a real mess. I think it's far more of a problem in the North.

Anecdote 1: Made the mistake of going shopping Saturday around noon. (I basically never shop in peak hours.) Intense crowds everywhere. I couldn't figure it out until my daughter pointed out that everybody was buying bottled water. So all of Northern Virginia was out doing their "hurricane prep". Gladdening my heart, my daughter came up with the remark of "You can just take tap water and put it in a bottle. It's not like bottled water tastes more watery."

Anecdote 2: Bob, I talk up the Prius-as-generator when I get the chance (I too have a 1 KW inverter ready to go), and finally had one of my wife's friends ask for a demo. So may have gotten one more convert.

 

They are now estimating an 11' storm surge for long island and Connecticut. NJ is also expected to get hit hard, and it looked like the storm is heading toward Philly.

This likely is the worst storm to hit Connecticut and NY since 1938.
Connecticut Hurricanes since 1850 | Way Too Much Weather

I would say they have had 74 years to prepare. Buildings are stronger, but huge population growth and property built up seems to mean people just have been ignoring the danger.

The problem with the media crying wolf, is when all the minor storms get hyped up, its hard to believe them when the real thing happens. Blame the media for the weather hype so often, not the people that have been so blasted with false stories that they can't tell what the real ones are.

My hopes and prayers for everyone on the east coast for mainly just property damage and a low number of injuries.

 

Not an issue for the memorials, I think. I don't think they're calling for more than a couple of feet of storm surge on the tidal Potomac. Yeah, just checked the national hurricane center, and the 50/50 odds for storm surge on the Potomac is under 2 feet, 10% chance is still under 2 feet.

Counter-clockwise rotation and all that, we're just way happy to be south of the eye. All the significant damage is going to be far north of here.

 

At the Delaware Memorial bridge is DuPont Chambers works where TEL was made in decades past, but not oil refinery. The 4 main refineries I see there now are Philadelphia Refinery and on NJ side near Philly is Paulsboro refinery. You have Trainer PA Refinery (Delta airlines owns now) north of Del Mem Bridge (showing idled on Wikipedia), south of bridge is Delaware City refinery. Then a few in North Jersey probably also cutting back.

 

NYC and that area is getting quite a flood

Coastal Flood Warning in New York

Power out now for 3 millions, that seems likely to increase and it will not be restored fast. There are only so many fixit crews, and they cannot begin until the worst conditions end.

I don't think the big snowfall has yet begun.

The wind intensity is not so catastrophic, but it is high enough to be damaging over a very large area. So good luck to all and I am sorry to miss that jack Daniels party.

Another link, mix of useful info and ambulance-chasing:
Superstorm Sandy Liveblog: Sandy pummels New York City - CSMonitor.com

 

...We'll have to wait and see as the water is rising in the Potomac/Haines Point, but I am not hearing any concern about the National monuments. Wash Monument closed since the earthquake of course. We must have got 10-inches rain here, as the news said 7-inches at 11PM. Our house for some reason never loses power in a storm.
But our family in NJ is in the dark again (recall freak NJ snow storm last year at this time).

 

Any "Prius used as generator" stories yet? Also, heard that gas lines are long in some affected areas.

Wonder if electric car owners are crippled by power outages.

 

Zen- Yes El Dobro has been waxing electrons about his favorable experience with HomeDepot inverter.
Check out thread under PiP Forum. Using PIP As A Generator | PriusChat