Global warming skeptics must see,, Chasing Ice

Most grounded ice outside of Antarctica is in decline. Antarctica appears to be holding on to a balance, which is darned good news. I must tell you though of recently seeing excerpts of an interview with Lonnie Thompson, one of my ice heroes.

He said that the last time CO2 and temperatures were this high was 3 million years ago. Fair enough. Then he also said that at that time, sea level was 20 meters higher. That was when I started talking back to the TV set. "No, Lonnie, don't say it!"

But he did say it and concluded that the implication was that, by the end of the 21st century, the same sea level could occur.

"No, Lonnie"

The problem is with timing, the dynamics of the thing. We may have set into motion (by adding CO2) a situation that will eventually melt that much grounded ice. But not in 100 years.

I don't know when the interview happened, so the possibility exists that this is where Al Gore got the ill-considered (and much maligned) idea for 20 meters in "the movie". Or 20 feet or whatever it was.

Maybe we could make more sensible progress if there were a way to 'unspeak' some of these sorts of statements. Among them I would also include statements about air-temperature hoaxing, as they have been dismissed by the Berkeley temperature analyses.

But as such things cannot be unspoken, we shall have to find a way forward even with additional rocks in the road.

 

Antarctica recently made the record high for ice.
You wouldnt know it because the media isnt much interested.
They only report record lows in the Arctic.

 

I saw the movie and I recommend it.

 

Antarctic ice is a matter of study, the first may be the most recent published:

TCD - Abstract - Antarctic ice-mass balance 2002 to 2011: regional re-analysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment
is positive

NASA (see panel b) is negative.
NASA - NASA Finds Polar Ice Adding More To Rising Seas

NIPCC selects four from the literature:
Recent Mass Balance Estimates of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
So, don't miss those.

I believe that one could find several different estimates of net mass balance, and that among them 'holding its own' is a fair summary. Or perhaps a slightly optimistic one.

If Mojo @4 is advising me to not get science from the media, then I agree 100%. But, I already don't, so no policy shift.

 

Just a coincidence I suppose, but in Science (journal) today appears this:

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

I extract a quote
"Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively."

The last 3 refer to Antarctica. Add them = -71 GT/yr. But attend to the ±uncertainties, and you get something like 'holding its own'. At least to optimists like me.

The right way to combine such uncertainties (so I was taught) is the square root of the sum of squares. So, -71 ± 52 GT/yr. Better to get that from the authors though.

If you want to be similarly up to date on global sea level, there are a couple of reviews in the June 2012 Environmental Research Letters.

Like Mojo says, don't get your science from 'the media'!

 

A newly released study finds that ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are disappearing three times faster than they were two decades ago, the latest evidence supporting the existence of global warming.

The study was published in the journal Science and is considered an extremely accurate portrayal of ice melts in these polar regions. According to the paper’s authors, the rapid polar ice melting has caused an increase in sea level that may become problematic to low coastal regions.

Perhaps the most alarming data found by the researchers was in Greenland where the ice was melting an estimated five times the rate it was in the mid-1990s. Melt from Greenland accounted for a whopping two-thirds of the polar ice melt. Due to a slower melt rate, just one-third of the world’s melted ice came from Antarctica, despite being larger in size than Greenland.

Study on rising sea levels likely confirms existence of global warming | Science Recorder

 

That's the one I linked to, Zen

 

That link is a little misleading on the research, which confirmed what most researchers though, and put some hard numbers out. Here is a link to the paper if you have a subscription
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

And a better summary if you don't

Ice sheet melting accounts for 20% of sea level rise since 1992 - latimes.com

 

Doh,
Didn't read the thread just the last response, and gave the same link to science and a slightly better summary from LA times for those that can't read the full paper.

 

The climate global warming deniers operate on religious faith not science so there is nothing that will change their views on the subject. They are dangerous obstructionist cranks in as much as they help the fossil fuel industries to fight the necessary changes to mitigate the problem.

 

This study is a bit out of date.Kind of takes the wind out of its sails when Antartica is at record highs and the Arctic recovered from its lows after a few days in Greenland or weeks for sea ice.

 

Why ice loss and sea level measurements via satellite and the new Shepherd et al paper are highly uncertain at the moment | Watts Up With That?

 

I'll have to get the papers but I was thinking about the effect of rising sea levels on the Antarctic ice shelves. My understanding is some are held in place by islands.

As the sea levels rise, it should 'float' the ice shelves and lead to more fractures and break ups. But it should also move the lubricating properties of sea water further ashore. Everything leading to more ice melt and flows off the land mass.

Bob Wilson