Toyota November Tops US Electric Plug In Vehicle Sales For November

So... that's telling us the 60k level (mainstream minimum in this market) is still years away? What about becoming a dependable profit generator, among GM's top-ten in their product-line? Will their be diversification as part of this, rather than the one-size-fits-all we have now?

Moving the goal posts is the problem we've been dealing for quite some time. Clarity helps overcome that. After all, there is debt associated with GM still, tax-credits to address, and CAFE requirements to meet... not to mention growing competition.

 

They're really two different kinds of car. I'd expect most people would prefer to drive the Volt and the market would split between those prefering higher efficiency (e.g. me) and those prefering driving experience (e.g. my wife). Although, right now I'd expect a PiP-40 to be insanely expensive so I think the Volt would take more of the market.

 

I just looked up my last 30 day average. I did 27 kWh/100 miles for EV and about 47-48 mpg on gas (around 1,200 miles on 25 gallons). I did a Thanksgiving road trip to Southern CA so my EV ratio was only 50% and total mpg was 96. Usually my ratio is around 80% and total mpg of 200+.

 

I don't make predictions. And I don't remember GM saying it would ever be in the top-ten product.. Can you provide a citation to that. I not stop making up stuff.

And Sorry but I don't take the word of a out-of-touch prius priest on what is "minmum".. your previous posts show you don't really know much about actual auto business. Of the 256 models on the US less then 1 in 3 move 60K per year. For example, no Mitsubishi, Suzuki , Cadillac, Infinity or Buick, Land Rover, or Jag Scion reach that level of US sales. Only one MB, BMW or infinity model sells that much. The volt outsells any model Suziki or Mitsubshi

Diversification is part of the plan, and has been since the introduce the Voltec platform, as well, a platform technology. Since back when they first called it E-Flex.. Green Car Congress: GM Introduces E-Flex Electric Vehicle System; Chevrolet Volt the First Application

 

I've been driving a Prius as long as you (well, one week less) and lived through all the Prius bashing in the automotive press. I don't recall it being heavily partisan the way the Volt has been and Fox News didn't exist back then (well, it was only 4 years old) but maybe I've just forgotten some of it.

There is plenty of evidence that people with plugin hybrids prefer to drive in EV mode -- even PiP owners. Batteries are expensive but will likely continue coming down in price over the next decade at the rate of 5-8% per year. So, many drivers with 10-20 miles commutes will favor PiP or Energi. Folks with longer commutes like me will often favor the Volt as will those who want the option of electric heating or stronger EV capability for hilly areas.

Sure, hybrid blending only requires a few hundred Watt hours but I was talking about drivers wanting to stay in EV for longer ranges than the PiP or even Energi currently supports. I wish the Volt had more range but I don't have that option right now and I'm not sure I'd want to pay for more at current prices. But, I'd be unhappy if my EV range regularly fell short of my 45 mile drive to work.

The computer storage analogy is that people often buy a 16 GB iPad and then run out of space and wish they had bought 32 GB etc. I suspect the same will be true for plugin cars. A range of 10-20 miles may satisfy at first but soon many people will be wanting 30-40 miles and may become willing to pay for it. That's just my guess.

 

It gets more to do what congress wanted.. spur investment in EV/Battery tech.. Its a long term investment strategy to build an industry, not the short sighted view that you seem to have.

I'm doing 27kWh/100miles lifetime and pretty good on gas. And I use the Volt as it was intended, EV for all speeds..

Last three months my Overall MPG / and MPG_CS are shown below
(Note Nov was all EV so the 999 and 100MPG_CS are not real data) Both Oct and Dec had airport runs (only time I usually need to use the ICE).

​

December 2012 163.36 48.15​

November 2012 999.00 100.00​

October 2012 144.11 42.69​

​

 

The GM bankruptcy let one group of partisan loose on the Volt. There were Prius-skeptics who tried to claim the Japanese government subsidized the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight development but it didn't get much traction in the usual partisan outlets.

In 2004, the anti-Howard Dean commercial cited the Volvo, not the Prius. But in 2004, less than 100,000 Prius had been sold and half of them were the sedan-style, NHW11. But Volvos had been around for a long time and were used as the signature of 'latte' drinking 'liberals.' There weren't enough Prius to rate a partisan commercial.

By 2009, the GM bankruptcy hijacked the anti-Prius eyes and focused them on the Volt. Perhaps an accident of history but a hard effect, none the less. Meanwhile, all Prius tax benefits have expired and even the HOV stickers are going away.

This is not to diminish a decade of Prius and hybrid skeptics:

• "payback" - using small or 'average' miles, they ignored road-warriors who saw a much more rapid payback. Worse, some failed to match standard versus optional accessories, automatic versus manual transmission, tax advantages, and vehicle sizes when comparing compacts to the full-size Prius.
• "nickel" - rooted in one false, Sunday Mail article, it echos even today by those who think all Prius owners are environmentalists.
• "green" - the hubris of thinking Prius owners are only environmentally motivated.
• "hidden costs" - between battery fears and the notorious CNW Marketing "Dust-to-Dust" report, there had been a push to inflate Prius costs.
• "hazard" - we still see the annual EMI scares but sad to say, S.841 to put noise makers on the Prius passed even though we can't find credible evidence of a fatality risk. But the 'run away' Prius fraud and sad to say, the brake-pause still echo.
• "just as good MPG" - the faux tests and attempts to try and show diesels, some small car, or to quote Jermey Clarkson,'driving style.'

These have not been partisan but just ordinary hybrid skeptics, often invested in gas and diesel technologies, trying to suppress hybrid sales.

Bob Wilson

 

GM Chief Says He’s Worried About Second Half- Bloomberg

By Tim Higgins

 

Let's pick 10,000 PiPs and Volts and figure out which fleet achieves the lowest gasoline consumption and lowest ghg emissions. I don't think we should have to index into the total mileage of each selected fleet, but we can if appropriate.

I don't think there is any way a PiP can perform as well as the Volt but I was really unsure until I put a few thousand miles on the Volt and confirmed what was a "back of the napkin" tco. Of course I don't have a PiP in the garage to complete the confirmation, just a gen 2 Prius.

 

I would not be so sure. People buy a car that (hopefully) matches their drive patterns.

Now, if you surmised that that replacing all the Volts with PiPs would lead to considerably higher fuel consumption, I'd think the same.

 

That's really the only thing left to brag about.

When Prius came out, it saved gas AND reduced emission. It did not use another fuel (electricity) in order to reduce gas consumption. It was a compact size but it had 5 seats.

Will Volt succeed like Prius? We don't know but we do know that they didn't start with the same footing.

RAM doesn't add so much weight and cost.

EV range can be extended as more public charging stations become available. They will just continue to increase, not decrease.

Per EPA, with only once charge per day, PiP will cover 29% of the miles with electricity. C-Max Energi with 21 EV miles will cover additional 19%. Volt with 38 EV miles will cover additional 18% on top of Energi.

As you can see, it takes a lot more EV miles to cover beyond the 29%. The battery will cost more, rob interior space and add weight (also reduce gas MPG).

PiP was balanced very nicely. It retains the flat cargo floor. It also has 50 MPG gas engine. It reduces greenhouse emission further. It also has the ability to use domestic electricity. Brilliant combination, especially if you have short trips. It also benefit if you have longer commute because of the 50 MPG gas engine -- there is no way to take a step backward.

How is focusing on the goal a short sighted view?

The current incentive is tied solely to the battery size. So GM thew in a substandard gas engine and Volt still qualified for maximum tax credit.

If the intend is to spur EV/Battery tech, it is better to focus on the results. You reward based on the results, not on a specific action performed.

PiP reduces both gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emission. Volt only does one of those. Why is PiP rewarded 1/3 the amount of Volt? Nevermind the midsize vs. compact.

 

It is a moving target. You are going to get proven wrong with another goal GM set.

 

Thanks for the link, though its important to look at the phrasing.

I'm not sure if you are citing the article to show it says they lowered their explications , or if because it restates the old numbers (45/60) he HAD set (past tense), as a preface for the the new lower expectations mentioned.
The quoting is quite odd with

not phrased as a goal, and the quote not including the numbers..

With 26650 Volt/Ampera sold to date, they will not quite get to 35,000 but they will get close to 30,000. Aug/Sept/Oct showed that with some incentives they can move them, but that reduces profits as well, so it will be interesting to see what they do for Dec.

 

Actually the current promotion of the Volt is focused on "happy" drivers and them being the most satisfied drivers on the planet. And they are happy for many reasons -- the quality of the car, the drive experience are more important to most drivers than the emissions.

And the volt does reduce gas AND emissions for most of its driver, but then again reducing emissions is not a priority for most drivers. And the Prius did/does use electricity, just not from the wall.

Focusing on a goal is not short sighted, your goal of maximum immediate reduction in MPG improvement is what is short sighted. The Credits are focused on the goal.. improving EV tech, battery tech and battery manufacturing.


Disruptive innovations are often based technological change that brings long-term improvements even they don't have maximal initial yield.

If one looks at the innovator delimma (a book you should read), that is exactly the point. Disruptive Innovators start behind the "traditional tech + sustaining innovations", but have the ability to rapidly improve and will over take it..e.g.



And disruptive innovations change mindsets. I used to think 50MPG was great and 35 was good.. now any day under 200 is very bad day. I find the posts touting the 75 or even 100mpg in the Pip ironic...if only they knew their true potential. Those hitting 200mpg lifetime in a PiP I applaud as the car matches their needs well, but those at 80-85 are probably just deluding themselves or really need that 5th seat.

Yeah the volt did not fully optimize Gen 1, which gives them room for growth via sustaining innovations. Gen 1 volt improves gas and ghg, if you choose the right fuel source. Giving the customer the choice of what they want. But more importantly, its setting up a new technology curve, one that has the potential to radically improve compared to a basic hybrid.


The PiP is rewarded 1/3 of the Volt because Toytoa took little risk and did very little development to produce it and because it puts much less demand on battery manufacturing..

 

If the intend was to increase battery production, why don't they reward HV battery?

The current HV battery capacity combined is probably more than all the plugin battery capacity combined.

It is pretty clear to me that the tax credit was designed to subsidize Volt. Despite the 1/3 the incentive disadvantage, PiP is selling well.

 

The US did have HV credits.. and they paid off in terms of helping to grow an HV industry. That is established. The EV industry needs better/bigger batteries, which was the goal. Getting off foreign oil was/is more important (security) than just reducing emissions.

Don't believe your HV vs EV battery estimates are right. Last month there were 35K HVs sold with say 1.2 kWh batteries for 42 MWh of HV batteries sold. Volt + Leaf alone were 61mWh, and the Tesla models S alone sold about 68mWk of batteries. All combined the plug-ins (including PiP, C-max) were over 150mWh of batteries last month, or more than 3x the hybrid battery use.

Actually they were pretty clearly designed to encourage reasonably big batteries, not particular cars over PHEVs.. The sizing was based onthe same studies that lead to the decisions that underly the Volt.. sizing to get most miles on battery.

 

Limiting scope of a discussion is basic greenwashing. Let's not go there.

Remember how often this question was asked: "Who is the market for Volt?"

If the point is to quickly replace traditional vehicle production, the wait of 4-5 years still just to move beyond niche is a red flag. Even just 10-15% is a million per year for each major automaker. Replacement requires at least double that. How long and who?

 

Yes we've seen you continue to ask questions of people who don't make decision for GM about things like their intended market and then apply a double standard.

You said "If the point is to quickly replace".. well the answer is to that easy.. that is not the point. The point is to develop technology that will make a difference in the long-term.. Here is a quote from your own logs..

With respect to how long to not be niche.. how long for the Prius? When will hybrids become more than a niche? Its a slow process please look at the long-term.

Sadly, Ive come to expect a double standard from you these days..

 

The tax credit for the batteries wasn't a stand alone law and shouldn't be judged as such. I have posted a link to the bill's outline here before. Don't have the time to look it back up, but it is one of the economic recovery acts that the battery credits were buried in.

Also buried in there was the extension of the tax credits for residential PV panel, wind turbines, geothermal heat pumps, and, IIRC, home fuel cells. Plus an increase tax on coal. On a whole, the law does encourage increasing renewable electric generation for home and vehicle use, while discouraging coal use. Along with growing the EV battery industry.

It may not favor the Prius, but it does help in your areas of concern.

 

Back on track so far this year we have sold 45,503 plug ins. We should expect massive growth next year.

1) c-max energi and Tesla S have only been selling for a very short time. Their estimated 3000 plug-ins this year should easily be 25000 next year. The question is whether this is all growth or whether it takes some units from other plug-ins. The fusion energi will also enter

• We may already be seeing this decrease volt and leaf sales
• My opinion is growth will be more than 20K units next year, perhaps getting us to 100K units

2) prius phv sales suffered by pricing, and limited distribution. They have corrected the pricing with discounts. Toyota can dictate how many they sell by expanding the states and dropping the price to lock in the discount. IMHO they are happy at these levels. Permanently dropping the pricing may cause larger losses and simply canalization other prii sales. I expect a continued slow roll out until gen IV, but hopefully toyota will make me wrong.

3) Leaf is suffering from a number of things. US production in 2013 will allow them to improve the 2013 and actually reduce costs per unit. I expect them to try to get to the 20K in fy 2013 (April 2013 -March 2014) and price and promote for this

4) volt sales like the prius will also be mostly up to gm. They can discount to grab market share. They can do a voltec 1.5 in the summer. OR they may be happy selling about 20K units next year and not stomping on the gas pedal. Volt sales this year were hurt by the congressional politics with media exagerations. I don't expect it to have that problem, but more of a Tesla/c-max energi problem.

Much has to do with the economy and gas prices.
So far this year leaf, volt, and prius phv have swapped places for sales crown each month. They all have had lower than projected sales, but perhaps expectations were too high.

January 2012 Through November 2012
volt 20,828
prius phv 11,389
leaf 8,330
Tesla S 1,500 (est by hybrid cars)
c-max 1,403