Electric Cars Are Doing Just Fine

Did you get a 1997 model? That is what I was referring too in the post.
TOYOTA Prius 1.5 (1997 - 2004) Technical Specifications & Features

Now I beg to differ that it is quick and responsive in the gen II, but it moved a great deal in that direction.

 

And about the mileage if not driven "properly"? Can you sustain that?

Overview: Toyota - Prius - Spritmonitor.de
(NHW 11 1 Gen) - 5,5l/100km - 42,7MPG

Overview: Toyota - Prius - Spritmonitor.de
(2 Gen) - 5,2l/100km - 45,2MPG

So driving habits can made such difference?

 

Car and driver got about the same mpg as the echo at the time.
Now this is what I actually said

Do you really think that is wrong or over 13 seconds to 60 is quick and responsive? I really was not trying to say anything controversial. Just read what I wrote in context and a reasonable person would agree. To get much higher than a geo metro that prius gen I needs to be driven like a hybrid. Drive it like a normal car and you didn't get the boost.

My point was we are early in the plug-in space. Would you not agree that relative value and performance went up going from gen I to gen III of the prius?

 

Caused a little chuckle.....

 

Frankly - I would take anything Lutz says with a grain of salt.

I agree ... government support for plug-in and BEV development has pushed the plug-in/BEV product and market further along in a shorter time frame than the Prius/Insight early development - which inturn has created more choices in the plugin/BEV market. After a decade in the market, while there are many hybrids out there the Prius is still the dominant hybrid - however, there isn't any dominant plug-in or BEV... the advantage of being the most popular hybrid is that it gives its owner/driver base significant market/economic clout. A large driver/owner base makes online communities like Priuschat more sustainable as well.

 

That is why, I put something out there that he said that was wrong. My point being just because you don't like the source, it does not mean that what he is saying is not true.

A dominant car in the class gives its producer a lot of clout, it does not give the owners any at all. It makes it more difficult for them to switch. Because toyota has chosen to expand the hybrid market, instead of extract the highest price per car, some the production savings was passed along. It is almost always true that competition is good for consumers.

Definitely

 

Pike Research's Updated Plug-In Forecast Puts Ford in Lead by 2016 | PluginCars.com

I always take pike with a grain of salt too, but here is their new forecast on plug-ins -

 

You want reliability, legacy on dependability - YES, it HAS to have a Prius badge.

DBCassidy

 

But that is how, historically, GM makes $$$$$$.

DBCassidy

 

The Prius hatred comes out, how sad. You must lose sleep with the Prius being a cornerstone in the marketplace.

DBCassidy

 

I agree that plug-in market will continue to grow but I only see it as nibbling only slightly at the Prius hybrid market and maybe taking a big bite out of the conventional gas market. Being that the hybrid market is pretty much past its quick initial growth and it is now established - the hybrid market growth is likely to be incremental.

The problem with going from a Prius hybrid to a Plug-in Prius is that while there is a significant improvement in fuel efficiency - the improvement is still only incremental. The increase cost to upgrade to a Plug-in is almost 2x of a normal hybrid - so the ROI for current hybrid owners to jumping to a Plug-in seems less - which may lead an owner of a Prius hybrid to just hold onto his current car rather than upgrade. In addition, with the expansion of the Prius Family - a current Prius owner may just upgrade to a hybrid that fits his/her lifestyle more closely rather than focus on gaining additional fuel efficiency of a Plug-in Prius. With gas prices at least temporarily stable under $4/gallon - the need for higher fuel efficiency and the risk of a runaway uptick on fuel cost is now more remote to consumers who are buying their next car. I think first adapter types and maybe some some owners of a conventional gas vehicle who may want to "leapfrog" (over compensate) are the most likely ones who will or or who have bought a "Plug-in" or a BEV. The full potential for BEVs an PHEV has been held back by the lack of public network of EV recharging stations in the USA.

I'm starting to see a few more Chevy Volts (Nissan Leafs are still very rare) on the road but they are by no means as popular as the Prius.

 

Nissan Leaf is doing just fine but not other EVs. EVs from GM was crushed so none exists. Spark EV has yet to be sold, using A123 battery and it is a big unknown with the bankruptcy and the sales of it to a Chinese company.

Plugin hybrids are doing better. Manufacturers are refocusing on hybrids and plugin hybrids. Nissan is coming out with more hybrids models than EV models in 5 years.

 

Cannibalize is a poor term, what does it mean?
Many of the Prius buyers were early adopters. Many of these early adopters are now buying plug in vehicles, so yes, plug ins are taking some sales from hybrids. It is not a lot, but it is some, so if you call that cannibalize, it is already happening.

I do agree though, that for the overall issue, it is very minor for plug ins to 'cannibalize' hybrids.
It will be much more benifitial for plug ins to cannibalize 'traditional' sub 30mpg vehicles.

Personally, I don't believe hybrids can ever do that to any meaningful extent. They got their 3-4% and that is going to be about it. BEV and serial plug ins that give you the pure electric driving experience will take the lead, although it may take 10 years.

The performance, comfort, safety of BEVs and the performance of serial plug in hybrids will 'cannibalize' market share from people whose priority is comfort and performance. And unfortunately, people with those priorities make up a much larger market than those concerned about fuel efficiency.

 

I'm sorry, a term from my past career.

I suspect that the market for Plug Ins is very similar to the market for Prius hybrids. I suspect just about every Prius PHV purchase was made at the loss of a Prius Hybrid sale.

 

I assume you mean EREV as in first use full power EV mode until empty and then ICE rather than serial vs serial/parallel hybrid.

Hybrids will likely always be significantly cheaper than "serial plug ins" (smaller battery, smaller motors, no extra charging hardware) and price matters to many buyers. I see no reason why hybrid sales should level off at 3-4% of sales assuming significant future increases in the price of gas.

Auto makers have demonstrated that they can make hybrids with different efficiency vs. performance tradeoffs.

Even though hybrids are close to 3% of new car sales they are still way less than 3% of total cars on the road. The vast majority of people still have very little experience driving them. I think hybrids will continue to gain market share over the next 10 years and beyond.

 

Thanks. I am familiar with the term, the magnitude was my question, which you also answered, thank you.
While I think many of the plug in vehicle market customers would have been hybrid buyers, I don't think, in general, it will be that high of a percentage.
I would agree that it will be a much higher rate if you focus only on the Prius vs PiP as the difference in cost and capabilities are less.

 

Nope, the Volt is an almost serial plug in hybrid. I put it as a sub category of the serial plug ins. It gives 98% of the electric drive experience which is one of the reasons the are pulling customers from BMWs and such.

Hybrid share of all cars on the road will grow and get closer to 3-4%. But I don't think they will ever pass more than 4%, MAYBE 5% on annual sales. Better options are coming up and those options are going to get cheaper and draw on a larger market than that of the hybrids.

 

But but but... the reason why the Volt drives like an electric car is independent of how it's gasoline hybrid powertrain works. It drives electric because it has a large enough battery to feed a 150 HP motor and stays electric over the full speed range of the car (about 100 mph) until the battery is "empty". That characteristic has been called EREV.

The phrase "serial plugin" to me implies the design of how the gas engine directly or indirectly drives the wheels. The Volt drives somewhat more like an EV than a Prius when the gas engine is running but nowhere near 98%. Whether the Volt is running in serial hybrid mode or serial/parallel power split mode is mostly imperceptible. Typically the Volt is in power split mode more than half the time when the gas engine is running. Running in power split mode is more efficient but serial mode allows the electric motor to accelerate the car faster.

One could have a "serial hybrid" non-EREV for a car that has too small of a battery to drive the full performance of the car -- accelerate too strongly and the gas engine would start up to turn the generator to send extra power to the electric motor. I don't think that's what you want.

 

I suspect hybrids will cap out at way more than 5% of sales as EVs will always have a range problem - even when they can refill, it will always be slower than gas (well okay maybe not always but for the foreseeable future) .

EREVs will always be more expensive than a hybrid equivalent so when price matters, a hybrid will be less expensive.

Even if batteries were $50 a kwh and a 300 mile EV was $30k, many people still need the range. Even if they need the range only 5 times a year, it is too many to drop the ICE altogether - for a lot of people.

So when CAFE is 54 or what ever in 2020, the most practical way to get there is with a lot of hybrids - more like 20% of sales. EVs will probably be 3% and EREVs maybe 5%. Diesels probably 5-10%. Means there will still be 60% conventional ICE. Well - that is all my prediction anyway.

 

To me, serial plugin means the vehicle first uses electric power exclusively, then uses gasoline (exclusively or blended).

The Volt almost uses electricity exclusively for the first 35 or so miles,which is where the 98% came from. I was definitely not saying the Volt was powered overall 98% by electricity. I apologize if it came across that way.