Interesting notes on Electric cars, premature?

Seems the comments are premature.
As noted in the article itself, it took 6 years before the Prius "took off" in the USA.
Why would anyone expect EVs to catch on in 2 or 3?

I do expect EVs to catch on more quickly, but not twice as fast.

The big thing most car companies are still missing is the EV drivetrain gives you so much performance it is ridiculous. This will allow EVs to catch market share not only from people that want less expensive fuel, or less reliance on oil, but also from people interested in performance and ride quality.

 

They probably missed the memo - plug-in cars tripled in sales in 2012. Tesla, is the leader, not the japanese, and it does not have short driving range. Charging infrastructure seems not to be much of a problem, as there are plans to build it. PHEVs get rid of range concerns and infrastructure concerns.

That is the tech with big problems, that has not lived up to expectations. The autoexecutives are not swinging towards fcv, they are still trying to get government money.

 

Introduced late 2000, sales hit mainstream levels here (helped from the introduction of the next generation) by the end of 2004. That's 4 years, without the advantage of an existing battery presense like there is now.

Where did the 2 or 3 come from for EVs? Is that just fallout from Volt hype of hitting mainstream by the end of year 2? Even enthusiasts quickly backed off of that when price reality hit.

 

OK 4 years, not counting 2000 because it was partial, to US sales of hybrids to over 50,000/year. You probably want to pick 2005 though, 5 years of over 100,000. Plug-in cars - phev and bevs in 2 years are above 20,000/year in 2012. That is much faster than hybrids. I don't think anyone doubts that when second generation models come out plug-ins will be over 100K/year.
Your use of mainstream again is not very meaningful. It is almost bizarre. One factor sited in the gen II prius success is it looked different and drove different from main stream cars. You act as if the volt in its 2 years is a failure because it is not greatly outselling the second generation prius, that had a 1997-2003 gestation period. Patience. The history of plug-ins are just beginning. The volt and leaf really began selling just in 2011 apart from a few pr models built at the end of 2010. The prius phv is out less than a year, energi and Tesla S have only a quarter. People are trying to act as if these hiccups mean the death of the plug-in, when it really is doing much better than hybrids at similar development pace.

 

That's not me. I certainly didn't set expectations either. And the measure makes a lot of sense, since business profit & sustainability depends upon standard minimums being achieved. There's no reason for any difference with EVs.

The standard benchmark has been 5,000 per month (60,000 annual) for well over a decade.

 

I apologize if there are standard benchmarks for these things. I thought 50K a year was what a mid market car would need in volume to be profitable. In initial adopter car like the tesla S needs lower sales volume to be profitable, and even lower to be sucessful. I never heard of a number for main stream.

I just tried googling it, and get no references to 5K/month being mainstream. Can you point me to a source?

 

Batteries aren't perfect, so lets abandon them and switch over to hydrogen.
Oh, wait, we still have some issues with containing, producing, transferring, etc. the hydrogen, but we'll ignore those issues...

I don't get people writing about hydrogen as being the better option without addressing those problemspoints...

 

As I stated, the 6 years number was that provided for in the article.
As for the 2-3 years, is that not how long the Volt and Leaf have been available?

Existing batteries?? They exist now a much as they did then. In neither case
The battery technology is shifting and changing and advancing every year. Tesla is the only company using commodity cell tech so perhaps you could say they leveraged that advantage.
Everyone else continues to either use the old nickel battery tech, or develop their own, cutting edge tech.

 

I know that $30 something thousand Leafs, Fits, Focus, etc, etc.... will not take off in sales - too expensive, limited range. ....

Do most people think about climate change when deciding to buy a car? I doubt that. They think about, what they can afford so they can get where they need to go.....

I think most have an inherent concern, maybe a fear that they might need to get away and go far for whatever reason. They need to be able to do it fast and reliably, like most others do.

Tesla's approach is so impressive: a stunning looking sedan that can best 200 miles and today, you can drive around a bunch of CA and supercharge ... for free!

70 something mile Leafs and Fits, etc.... only a few are going to have at that.

 

Toyota's hybrids are here to stay though -

I took a good look at '13 Avalon Hybrid: very nice.. 40 mpg average! Still a pretty large trunk. Only $4,600 more than non-hybrid. No brainer, get one, or settle for 26 mpg non-hybrid Avalon.

Camry hybrid also little compromise for only $3,500 more.

Still, 3 or 4 thousand more is just that, and shoppers are price sensitive.

 

Not so fast my friend. The Avalon xle hybrid is $8K more than the camry xle hybrid. 80% of camry buyers are not going to pay the hybrid premium on the camry. Even fewer are going to pay a $8K luxury premium on top of that to get a full sized Avalon hybrid. Some will, but I doubt it will be a large percentage. Most large car buyers are going for the impala, the new Avalon may eat into their market share, but its not good enough to grab a large percentage of camry/fusion/mkz hybrid customers. Large car market share is falling.

Will more folks buy a $35K than a less expensive Nissan leaf? Possibly, but these are quite different markets. The plug-in market is new, small, and growing. The Large car market is shrinking.

 

Not sure what are you trying to say here... Plugin market seems to be a dead end until some major development comes in for the batteries. Numbers are horrible and nobody is meeting their goals.

Hybrid market share just grew 61% and will continue to go up as hybrid power trains end up being offered with every car. It is good for plugins too.


As to the hydrogen, it has a lot of problems which manufacturers like Toyota say are going to be solved by 2015. If that happens, then they will easily go over EVs with current batteries. If it doesnt, then there wont be hydrogen cars on sale, period.

As to the grant money, US invested billions into EV batteries and what happened? Money thrown into the wind, companies in chapter 11.

In Europe, it seems that plenty of countries will build basic network of hydrogen stations by 2015. Same will happen in California and few other states. Good thing about hydrogen is that they dont need that many. In UK, they announced building 65 stations (by 2015) to cover major parts of the country and 3 minute/300 miles refueling.

If all of that happens by 2015, same time that first cars start selling, at reasonable prices, I dont see how they wont easily overtake plugin/ev market.

Of course, unless something big happens with batteries. Which doesnt seem to be happening right now.

 

Plug in sales grew faster in their first two years than hybrid sales in their first two years.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/electric_vehicles/pdfs/eveverywhere_blueprint.pdf

And while a 60% growth is wonderful, plug ins tripled their sales in 2012.
Yes, some marketing folks have made estimates they haven't matched. There are challenges in bringing a new technology into the market and some miscalculations involved. But just because they don't hit some extremely optimistic numbers doesn't mean the product is dead.

 

If manufacturers standardized the battery, we could simply have 'swapping stations'. I bet you could change the batteries in an electric faster than filling up. The robotic changer would work from under the vehicle and you wouldn't even have to exit the vehicle. Think driving up to an ATM!

When I read the comments posted below the Yahoo article, I'm blown away by the raw hatred and vitriol against the EV. Did gasoline ever have such an uphill battle?

The same thing is happening here, in Maine. Some people don't want any wind turbines so they're passing noise ordinances of 35dB (but only for wind turbines, nothing about chain saws, jake brakes, Harleys)!!! Imagine if the auto industry, from the get-go, had to comply with that! We're shooting ourselves in the feet...

 

In reverse order, I think you hit on something!
Ok, add your noise ordinance, but it should apply to everything. I love it, genius!

As for standardization, one of the problems is the plug in market is very young and trying to find out what works.
What size pack sells best? How often will owners need to swap batteries?
Right now the vast majority of EVs have a 70-90 mile range and don't seem to be catching on too fast. As range increases, the frequency of needing a battery swap goes down.

Also, most manufacturers seem to be taking a fairly standard car body and trying to jamb in the battery pack. This leads to battery packs that are difficult to get to making automating swapping even more of an issue.

I can see battery swaps working someday, but I do think it will be difficult to figure our the logistics and will require multiple manufacturers to cooperate.

 

I don't think plug-ins will be killed, but some models will.

What plug-ins available now have a chance of hitting big sales?

Leaf? Seems pretty clear it's not going anywhere with 70 miles range, even if priced under $30k. If range was pushing 200 miles EPA miles for that cost, then more would listen up.

Fit, Focus, i, Rav4, etc ... EV ? Tiny sales for years

PiP - One of the best plug-ins on market, limited sales

Volt - interesting but .. expensive!

Accord plug-in - interesting ... expensive

Model S - the best, but very pricey

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How are sales going to grow much in 3 years unless major breakthrough in battery tech with lower cost?

 

Yup, just like hybrids of the past.

Same question as the past with hybrids... It totally depended on perception of gas prices, not even the reality of oil supply. People grow comfortable with the idea after awhile too. Feeling the technology has matured even though there hasn't been an upgrade, they'll finally buy one.

 

BetterPlace went with that approach and are struggling.

Better Place

 

Hasn't the average gone down over the past decade or so? I suppose I could look it up in the mean time ... but yea if the economy continues on its so so performance, new car sales will be one of many things that become the 1st expense to get thrown out the window. With the economy being the way it is, high effeciency car sales being what they are - seem unbelievabley good imo.