North Korea...

Fuzzy sure with Soul less than 30 miles away NK can inflict some damage but the retaliation can turn NK into rubble and fire.

In 1989 Billy Joel wrote a Song We didn't start the fire. nothing changed since than. Still conflicts around the world. Sad how little mankind progressed.

YouTube

 

Funny !!!!!!

 

Do we really have to send Dennis Rodman back to babysit this guy.......

 

If Dennis is our hope for peace best we prepare for war.

USA is beefing up military in region this may fizzle out or pop.

 

North Korean flagship



North Korea’s Nuclear Cul-de-Sac | TIME.com

 

Flagship? I only see the flagpole, the guy in the front of the boat is holding it. Did Kim Jong Un mistake the flag for a cake and eat it?

 

Russia and China are as quiet as a mouse

 

I wish this were true, but I have my doubts. Iran's full of hot air and is insignificant. Syria was when Assad was properly in charge. In both cases, the leaders know they have to make ridiculous threats against America or Israel, but they also know that, if they follow through on these threats, their countries will be destroyed. And they have a well-developed sense of self-preservation, so they're not going to do that. (A new "democratic" Syrian government might not be so sensible.)

But with NK, it's different. The leadership is genuinely nuts, and I don't think that sense of self-preservation is there. So I think there is a risk that they will do something silly.

I do lots of work with the Chinese government, and this subject comes up a lot.

For the past 20 years or so, China has had to pretend to back NK. The US is well aware that this is a pretence, as is Japan, SK and Russia. But the thing is, everyone is aware that the NK leadership is mental: with China pretending to be NK's friend, there's a channel of communication between NK and the rest of the world, and NK feels less of a need to lash out. The Chinese government hate the NK government with a passion, but they have to pretend that they don't. And the Chinese government has a great relationship with the SK government: SK is China's real friend and ally.

Over the last couple of months, though, as the NK government has got more and more ridiculous, even the Chinese have lost patience: for the first time, they're publicly condemning NK, as well as privately shouting at them in closed-door meetings.

So, at the very least, China is going to stand back and call for calm. I can't see China lifting a finger to defend NK if NK does something stupid.

If NK does something stupid - launch a nuke or a ground invasion - the US and SK have to react, and they have to destroy the NK government. But "winning the peace" will be extremely difficult: a US-SK invasion plays to the propaganda with which NK people have been indoctrinated for years - they've been told that SK is a puppet of the US, and that both countries want to destroy NK and enslave its people. And they've been told that Communism and Juche are the only moral paths. An SK-US invasion fulfils this prophecy, and will give many North Koreans all the self-justification they need to enter into guerrilla resistance.

So, if everything does kick off, I hope Obama will be able to think outside the box (but I doubt he will). The only way to "win the peace", and to make it appear to the people of NK that this isn't an American act of aggression would be for there to be a joint US-SK-China invasion force. If the US and "NK's only friend" were to jointly invade, that would make it easier to get a message across to the NK populace that everyone - even NK's Communist ally - agreed that NK was the aggressor and that the government of NK was harming its own people. Whether a US President (and the rest of the US military leadership) can get their heads around the idea of a joint invasion of NK with China is pretty doubtful. But I really do think it's the only workable solution if we don't want another Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam.

China's vested interest really isn't in keeping the conflict simmering; it's in maintaining the status quo. And that's in SK's interest too.

China is quite scared that NK is going to do something silly - launch a nuke at SK, for example. And it will do what it can to prevent this from happening. But both China and SK recognise that a reunification - either as a result of reaction to an NK act of aggression, an unprovoked US-SK act of aggression, or an internal collapse within NK - would be a catastrophe.

We all know what a challenge German reunification was: the problems of economic disparity and resentment still haven't been solved after more than 20 years, and the first few years were incredibly difficult as West Germany struggled to drag East Germany up. But East Germany had a well-educated, reasonably cosmopolitan, relatively well-informed population. It had a different form of government from West Germany, and it was poorer than West Germany, but the differences weren't insurmountable: it was the unification of one of the richest capitalist countries with one of the richest Communist countries. A well-educated East German populace could function pretty easily in a unified capitalist country.

SK-NK is different. NK people have been brought up to believe that they live in the richest, best country in the world. They've been brought up to believe that the US is a fascist dictatorship in which the masses live in poverty, and that SK is a puppet state of the US that oppresses the South Korean people, and that South Koreans are starving. Unlike East Germans, they have very little contact with the outside world, and have seen very little to contradict what they've been told. Their education system is a catastrophe, and they're horribly malnourished. They're not equipped to survive in a capitalist country.

I've spoken to quite a few people involved in the government and police in North-Eastern China. You'll have heard, no doubt, about NK refugees making it to China, and then being sent home to certain death. This is one of those lies that China is willing to propagate in order to try not to offend the NK government. In reality, you have to have been incredibly naughty - basically, you have to have murdered or raped someone - to get sent back. But most NK people who are arrested in North-East China are arrested for shoplifting or burglary, which they're just doing for survival. They're given a slap on the wrist, and the Police do what they can to educate these people on how to legitimately (but still illegally) earn money and survive in China.

And that's where this gets relevant. NK immigrants don't know how to survive in China. They don't know how to earn money; they don't know how a shop works (that you have to give people money, and you can buy stuff); they don't know how to cross a busy road, because they've never seen a busy road; they don't know how to work a phone or use a computer; they don't know how to cook proper, nutritious food; and they don't know how to protect themselves from exploitative criminals. Without help, they can't survive. And that's in China, and when there's only a trickle of refugees.

On top of that, NK people in both China and SK really struggle with the mental impact of finding out that everything they've ever been told is a lie. It's hard to imagine what it must be like: for your whole life, you're told that you're in the richest, happiest country in the world, and then you get to China, and it's full of cars and electric lights and karaoke bars and beer and good food and happy people, and then you get to South Korea, and it's the same, but more so. That would be an incredibly hard thing to adjust to.

If NK collapses, or gets invaded, there'll be a flood of refugees coming into China, all of them unable to function. And if NK and SK are reunified, you'll have a single country with 49 million clued-up people and 24 million people who can't function. They'll be a dead weight on the economy - they're not going to be able to contribute anything for the first decade or so - and they'll be a massive threat to social order in unified Korea and in China as they struggle to survive. The impact on SK's economy will have a global effect: China, the US, and much of the rest of the world will struggle to cope with what will be an implosion in the SK economy.

So, horrible as it is for the 25m people in North Korea, China and South Korea (and the US) know that preserving the status quo is essential, because they can't cope with the alternative. The ideal solution for everyone would be for the NK regime to collapse, and for a Chinese (or US) puppet government to be installed that can, over ten or twenty years, bring NK up to a level of development that will make unification possible. Quite how China and the US can work together to achieve this I don't know, but Kim Jong-un isn't going to make things any easier.

 

Well said HKMB.

 

What is a surprise to me is NK and Russia share a border.

 

Japan increased military spending the first time in 11 years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/asia/japan-shifting-further-away-from-pacifism.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld&_r=0

 

Obama sees Kim as just talking smack, all words no action. No troops movement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/asia/south-korea-gives-military-leeway-to-answer-north.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld

 

Thank you. Actually, that map brings up another of China's concerns.

Obviously, if China does decide to overtly side with the US and SK in any actual war, a lot of Chinese cities are within range of NK missiles.

And even if NK doesn't decide to bomb China, NK's missile guidance systems are so bad that China knows that it is at risk even if NK decides to bomb SK or Japan. I think if NK does decide to start firing missiles at Seoul, the safest place to be is probably Seoul.

 

Yes, most people don't notice that tiny bit of border. But when Russia was supporting NK until 1989, this was incredibly important for NK.

 

If the generals decide to take matters into their own hands, who would be able to stop them? Let's take a quick tour of history and realize that real dictators kept a couple of different organizations around to ensure one did not hold all the marbles. Hitler had a SS organization to keep the military in check. Stalin had a KGB (NKVD at the time) to keep the military in check. The German military attempted to assassinate Hitler. When Stalin died (or was murdered) Beria attempted climb to power was crushed by Khruschev's arrest, trial and shooting of him.

In NK we have power hungry ruthless military generals and a VERY junior marshmallow raised in luxury. If the generals internally agree on how to divide the spoils after taking over. BANG, it's done. It's just a matter of time.

 

Quite apart from the consequences of NK's implosion, I believe China has other strategic reasons to keep playing NK against the US, tying up and consuming some of our resources. Various Chinese entities understand military strategy and tactics as well as anyone on the planet. They have been practicing it several millenia longer than the rest of us.

But that shouldn't detract from the excellent points you make, concerning issues much more immediate. I've seen much of it elsewhere, but scattered and in less detail.

 

I do not believe NK will attack China. If China offers no help but brokering a peace agreement it will be valuable for NK.

It could give financial or arms assistance. But that may lead to a embargo. China's economy depends on global trade.

If China attacked Japan or Taiwan we have WW4

Most likely since no troops are moving within NK this is similar to Iran, just rhetoric and no substance.

All the troops and arms movements are by the USA. Perhaps the NK and Chinese are nervous of our actions. SK said it will attack if attacked.

 

Nothing really is as we see it. Take this photo of the human eye.