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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Apr 4, 2013.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm still working on the table tags but here is the initial data:
    Column 1
    0 [tr][th]model[th]Mar_13[th]Feb_13[th]Jan_13[th]Dec_12
    1 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius Liftback[td2]13868[td2]11428[td2]9685[td2]12536
    2 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    3 [tr][td2]Toyota Camry Hybrid[td2]4461[td2]4147[td2]3826[td2]4443
    4 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius C[td2]4026[td2]3148[td2]2691[td2]3151
    5 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    6 [tr][td2]Jetta Diesel[td2]3653[td2]3261[td2]2690[td2]3346
    7 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius V[td2]3460[td2]2543[td2]2522[td2]2992
    8 [tr][td2]Fusion Hybrid[td2]3417[td2]3806[td2]3043[td2]3244
    9 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Hybrid[td2]3275[td2]2849[td2]2387[td2]3339
    10 [tr][td2]Passat Diesel[td2]3237[td2]2233[td2]1770[td2]2624
    11 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    12 [tr][td2]Nissan Leaf[td2]2236[td2]653[td2]650[td2]1489
    13 [tr][td2]Tesla Model S*[td2]1950[td2]1400[td2]1000[td2]900
    14 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    15 [tr][td2]Sonata[td2]1623[td2]1441[td2]1192[td2]1874
    16 [tr][td2]Avalon Hybrid[td2]1616[td2]1361[td2]1040[td2]747
    17 [tr][td2]ES Hybrid[td2]1561[td2]1154[td2]1324[td2]1866
    18 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Volt[td2]1478[td2]1626[td2]1140[td2]2633
    19 [tr][td2]Malibu Hybrid[td2]1359[td2]1254[td2]981[td2]1381
    20 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    21 [tr][td2]Lexus CT200h[td2]1062[td2]1182[td2]1001[td2]1598
    22 [tr][td2]GL-Class Diesel[td2]1011[td2]773[td2]578[td2]954
    23 [tr][td2]Kia Optima Hybrid[td2]1001[td2]1215[td2]909[td2]751
    24 [tr][td2]RX 400 / 450 h[td2]925[td2]756[td2]744[td2]1394
    25 [tr][td2]Prius Plug In[td2]786[td2]693[td2]874[td2]1361
    26 [tr][td2]Golf Diesel[td2]754[td2]885[td2]552[td2]664
    27 [tr][td2]Lacrosse Hybrid[td2]717[td2]706[td2]576[td2]819
    28 [tr][td2] [td1]-[td1]-[td1]-[td1]-
    29 [tr][td2]Honda Civic Hybrid[td2]572[td2]433[td2]429[td2]512
    30 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Energi[td2]494[td2]334[td2]338[td2]971
    31 [tr][td2]ML Class Diesel[td2]478[td2]317[td2]279[td2]486
    32 [tr][td2]Highlander Hybrid[td2]477[td2]441[td2]452[td2]588
    33 [tr][td2]BMW X5 Diesel[td2]462[td2]428[td2]382[td2]1022
    34 [tr][td2]Honda Insight[td2]454[td2]388[td2]319[td2]310
    35 [tr][td2]Honda CR-Z[td2]451[td2]381[td2]358[td2]243
    36 [tr][td2]Cayenne Diesel[td2]451[td2]314[td2]396[td2]395
    37 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid[td2]451[td2]272[td2]232[td2]162
    38 [tr][td2]MKZ[td2]446[td2]177[td2]100[td2]321
    39 [tr][td2]Regal Hybrid[td2]387[td2]375[td2]184[td2]181
    40 [tr][td2]Touareg Diesel[td2]375[td2]392[td2]300[td2]487
    41 [tr][td2]Fusion Energi[td2]295[td2]119[td2]0[td2]0
    42 [tr][td2]Beetle Diesel[td2]284[td2]189[td2]174[td2]212
    43 [tr][td2]Q7 Diesel[td2]279[td2]314[td2]192[td2]414
    44 [tr][td2]Ford Focus EV[td2]180[td2]158[td2]0[td2]0
    45 [tr][td2]Honda Civic[td2]167[td2]139[td2]126[td2]235
    46 [tr][td2]ILX Hybrid[td2]145[td2]154[td2]84[td2]119
    47 [tr][td2]RAV4 EV[td2]133[td2]52[td2]25[td2]52
    48 [tr][td2]E-Class Diesel[td2]105[td2]122[td2]156[td2]196
    49 [tr][td2]Audi Q5 Hybrid[td2]84[td2]76[td2]90[td2]122
    50 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih)[td2]78[td2]88[td2]56[td2]144
    51 [tr][td2]M Hybrid[td2]58[td2]46[td2]37[td2]76
    52 [tr][td2]Lexus GS 450h[td2]56[td2]38[td2]34[td2]52
    53 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih)[td2]51[td2]43[td2]18[td2]58
    54 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid[td2]48[td2]38[td2]30[td2]69
    55 [tr][td2]Cayenne Hybrid[td2]46[td2]32[td2]60[td2]84
    56 [tr][td2]S-Class Diesel[td2]45[td2]35[td2]38[td2]38
    57 [tr][td2]Cadillac Escalade Hybrid[td2]35[td2]30[td2]44[td2]90
    58 [tr][td2]i[td2]31[td2]337[td2]257[td2]77
    59 [tr][td2]A3 Diesel[td2]28[td2]107[td2]90[td2]211
    60 [tr][td2]GMC Yukon Hybrid[td2]26[td2]23[td2]23[td2]65
    61 [tr][td2]Accord Plug In[td2]26[td2]17[td2]0[td2]0
    62 [tr][td2]E400H[td2]25[td2]22[td2]22[td2]0
    63 [tr][td2]Fit EV[td2]23[td2]15[td2]8[td2]19
    64 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid[td2]12[td2]43[td2]21[td2]18
    65 [tr][td2]LS 600h[td2]12[td2]22[td2]14[td2]6
    66 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid[td2]12[td2]14[td2]10[td2]47
    67 [tr][td2]Porsche Panamera S Hybrid[td2]11[td2]5[td2]46[td2]46
    68 [tr][td2]S400HV Hybrid[td2]8[td2]9[td2]12[td2]10
    69 [tr][td2]GMC Sierra Hybrid[td2]6[td2]7[td2]9[td2]145
    70 [tr][td2]7-Series ActiveHybrid[td2]4[td2]2[td2]3[td2]4
    71 [tr][td2]R-Class Diesel[td2]1[td2]4[td2]3[td2]4
    72 [tr][td2]HS 250h[td2]1[td2]1[td2]0[td2]2
    Source: Hybrid Dashboard Report
    • Prius c - great gains, 'in your face Consumer Reports!'
    • Prius v, Leaf, Tesla - excellent gains
    • Diesel 'wishfulness' is not matched by overall sales
    • Three models dropped off the list

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Apr 4, 2013
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  2. JamesBurke

    JamesBurke Senior Member

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    So the Prius Liftback outsells any other manufacture complete Hybrid/Diesel line as does the rest of Toyota/Lexus line without the Liftback.
     
    #2 JamesBurke, Apr 4, 2013
  3. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    Tesla's gains are because they've been able to ramp up their production. They still have a long backlog of orders. What'll be interesting is when/if that backlog dies down and whether they can replace a shrinking US backlog w/international sales.

    It's interesting that GM toppled Honda awhile ago in hybrid sales by marketing their 2nd gen BAS mild hybrids differently (not using the word hybrid).

    The BAS '13 Malibu eAssist gets worse combined mileage than the '13 Altima: Compare Side-by-Side and worse than the '13 Accord 2.4L CVT: Compare Side-by-Side.

    I stumbled across Top 20 Best-Selling Cars In America - March 2013 - GOOD CAR BAD CAR the other day showing the Altima being the top selling car in the US, surprisingly toppling Camry. I wonder how much if that was due to the Altima's styling, interior and FE.
     
    #3 cwerdna, Apr 4, 2013
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  4. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #4 Sergiospl, Apr 4, 2013
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    from what i can see, altima is very popular with young people. also, i saw a ton of rentals in florida.
    amazing sales, even ford looks good. than you bob!
     
    #5 bisco, Apr 4, 2013
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    They have two lists. On the first list they included the verano at last place, and it greatly outsold tesla at 3564 in March. On the second list, where tesla belongs, sales of 1950 would have placed it at number six between the mercedes GL and the cadilac escalade. Tesla does not report monthly numbers so goodcarbadcar doesn't have them in there charts. You may email them, and perhaps they will get estimates from one of the other sites.
     
    #6 austingreen, Apr 4, 2013
  7. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    I'm just not all that impressed with Camry interior. Honda salespeople will emphasize that Hondas are not sold to fleets and rental companies as Toyotas are. Yes, Accord has a coupe model, but Camry has a hybrid model, so considering fleet Camry sales, it would think more end users buy Accords than Camrys. Don't know about Altima.

    anyhoo, Prius sales are a higher than I had hoped. :D
     
    #7 cycledrum, Apr 4, 2013
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    What does nag me a little are the claims that Ford has cannibalized Prius sales. The relative sales number changes suggests this may be the case BUT one should not use a single sample to make such claims. It was AutoLine Daily that made this suggestion. Still, let's speculate this may be the case.

    This suggests the efficient car market is small, ~3%, and closed. It doesn't matter how many models exist if they are all beating on the same, small population.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #8 bwilson4web, Apr 6, 2013
  9. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #9 Sergiospl, Apr 6, 2013
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sorry, I should have shared the source:
    Source: Episode 1106 – BMW Concept X4, Prius Takes it on the Chin, UAW in Deep Talks with VW – Autoline Daily

    Sometimes numbers appear randomly that our human mind interprets as a pattern:
    • -5,800 - Toyota/Lexus down
    • +6,300 - Ford up
    It would not have resonated with me but for the ~3% ceiling in hybrid sales I've noticed for the past 3-4 years. I am used to seeing an "S" adoption curve in technology. But IMHO the early adopter period is long since past.

    Now if the Ford Fusion and CMAX are a break-through, leading to more non-hybrid adopters, I'm a happy camper. It means the ~3% is not a closed set and can expand into other car buyers. But testing this hypothesis would require a pretty sophisticated look at the Dashboard reports going back to 2009.

    Total hybrid adoption has grown a little this past year but not at a rate that I personally would prefer to see. On a broader front, fuel efficiency is showing up in new cars and trucks across the board . . . they are becoming slightly, less terrible.

    Another hypothesis for the plateau is the Prius family is becoming 'long in the tooth.' But I only have to walk out to our 2003 Prius and that hypothesis evaporates. That car is 10 years old and it still gets 52 MPG . . . just like the 3 year old Prius parked next to it.

    The other thing is the 'days of inventory' going the wrong way. A popular vehicle will run less than a 60 day inventory. But a 73 day inventory suggests:
    1. It is becoming a Prius buyer's market - this may lead to better deals for the buyer.
    2. The efficient car market is truly small - 97% of our friends and family think we are totally nuts . . . not that this is a bad thing. <grins>
    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2013
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  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Cannibalized is the wrong term. You can think of prius c canabalizing some prius liftback sales, as some would have undoubtedly bought the liftback if the prius c was not around, but the numbers show it has grown the hybrid market also.

    I don't think there can be much of a doubt that in the short term, some that might have bought toyota hybrids have bought ford hybrids instead.
    I would say more competition, will result in better cars, which will result in more market share for hybrids in the long run. It is difficult to predict march sales for toyota if there wasn't ford.


    Let me give you at least some tools, the prius, and prius family sales.
    Toyota Prius Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
    Toyota Prius Family Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
    This should show you not to look only at any one month.


    Toyota could sell more prii by dropping price. The yen is getting weaker from Japanese government policy. The prius is selling badly in japan compared to a year ago, when there were incentives. I don't think that will help them long term. The aqua is selling well there, so the prius c and prius phv would not be included in any price drop. I don't think its a buyers market, toyota can simply cut back production.
     
    #11 austingreen, Apr 7, 2013
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  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I mentioned the "S" learning curve and would recommend reading the abundant sources on the net. One of the better images:
    [​IMG]
    We have seen this behavior in hybrid and Prius skeptics for years. I wished it would taper off but instead:
    • "Bell the Hybrid" is Federal Law signed two years ago
    • taxes on hybrids to 'make up' for their fuel efficiency, State Laws passed and being passed
    • wide-spread ignorance by non-technical Prius owners about how the Prius works
      • 'I am not getting xx MPG with my Prius! What is wrong?'
      • 'I am not getting yy MPG with my <other hybrid>! What is wrong?'
      • 'MPG is just a question of how you drive it.' - Jeramy Clarkson, Top Gear
    • obvious ignorance by industry design teams about how the Prius achieves high MPG
      • abysmal performance of "Prius killers" . . . two-mode transmission, belt-assisted (BAS), collapse of IMA, Ford's MPG claims, Fisker, e.t.c.
    So there is still hope we are on the "Working Through" part of the "S" curve but "How hard can it be?" (Clarkson.)

    It is my fondest hope that we would see hybrids break-through and grow to 5-6% of the market. The rate of acceleration would then accelerate and finally achieve a stable, significant market share. This is why I keep hoping hybrid technology could expand into light trucks. Hydraulic hybrid is my best guess of the most cost-effective approach for light trucks.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #12 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2013
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thanks,
    My eyes see the two months, Feb 13 - Mar 13, sharing the same malaise. Certainly the Ford hypothesis has some merit based upon the numbers. We're also seeing 'in your face' ads by Ford . . . giving Ford 'rope' based upon CMAX actual performance. I would be happy if the 'less strong' Prius sales are just an advertising bump pending the lawsuits and an EPA investigation. My preferred Prius sales pattern are Nov 12-Jan 13 and the pre-Tsunami data, Jan 10 - Mar 12. With Ford expanding the base, I would be a happy camper.

    I agree, we can't take a single month which is why the table covers four months. If we look at the middle-five, the Passat and Jetta diesels could have sat in for the CMAX and the Prius v.

    The February and March sales data are not a single month. This is not enough to set one's hair on fire but it is enough to 'find the matches.' <grins>

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2013
  14. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Prius L may decrease as more hybrid models become available, but seems like month-to-month variations.

    Japan January 2013:
    1 Toyota Aqua 22,466
    2 Honda NBOX 20,552
    3 Nissan Note 14,529
    4 Suzuki Wagon R 14,020
    5 Daihatsu Move 12,771
    6 Daihatsu Tanto/Exe 10,967
    7 Daihatsu Mira/Mira Cocoa 10,675
    8 Honda N-One 10,192
    9 Toyota Prius 9,899
    Japan February 2013
    1 Toyota Aqua 24,526
    2 Toyota Prius 23,463
    3 Nissan Note 16,497
    4 Honda Fit 12,246
    5 Nissan Serena 11,148
    Japan March 2013:
    1 Toyota Aqua 33,693
    2 Toyota Prius 32,527
    3 Nissan Note 21,336
    4 Honda Fit 20,327
    5 Nissan Serena 12,905
    Best Selling Cars &#8211; Matt&#039;s blog &raquo; Japan March 2013: Toyota Aqua &amp; Nissan Note hit highest volume
     
    #14 Sergiospl, Apr 7, 2013
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    One thing that should screem out to you is year to year sales in the same month have a great deal of noise. The other is the prius liftback just doesn't sell as well as it did in the 2nd generation 2007 and 2008. 2012 was a very good year for the prius liftback and I would expect its sales would fall some months, even if there were not other choices that were not here last year.

    The ford hybrids should be reducing conquests of ford to toyota for hybrids, and appear to be sharing conquests from other brands. I would give the data at least 1 year to materialize though, looking at 1 month gives a distorted picture.

    We do have a little data. The c-max replaces the escape hybrid, in quite a different way. Some conquests are from the prius, but these folks might have gone for another vehicle with high seating position. The other vehicle people are trading in is the honda cr-v. The c-max greatly outsells the escape hybrid and wasn't getting many conquests.
    Compare Side-by-Side
    Even if you think its the small self reported sample, the c-max gets more than 10 mpg better than the cr-v or escape.
     
    #15 austingreen, Apr 7, 2013
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  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Best Selling Cars &#8211; Matt&#039;s blog &raquo; Japan March 2012: Toyota Prius, Aqua &amp; Honda Fit all beat records
    prius was 45K in march 2012 versus 32K in march 2013. That is a major drop. The aqua is doing quite well though this year. Its not that there are extra hybrid models, the japanese government was pumping up the hybrid sales with incentives that are gone. The us is the only place that can absorb some of those japanese losses, if toyota wants to keep the factory running in japan.
     
    #16 austingreen, Apr 7, 2013
  17. spwolf

    spwolf Senior Member

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    yeah, toyota closing down factories in japan...lol.


    Toyota to hike Japan output by 10 pct in Apr-Sept - Nikkei| Reuters

    As to the Prius, those are peak numbers from subsidized sales... Currently Prius liftback sells superbly in Japan, at expensive of other cars such as Corolla and Yaris (in Toyota stable).
     
    #17 spwolf, Apr 7, 2013
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    From your article
    ​
    ​
    Toyota and Nissan to cut Japanese production
    To me if they raise it to 3.3 milliion, that is still a cut from 3.4 million, not a ramp up. They simply are adjusting to currency from plan.

    If you read the article, they are doing this for export, not the domestic market. Will toyota cut the price of the prius to sell more in the US? I do not know. They sold 30K less in the first 3 months in japan. It is businssweek not me, that speculated that toyota may cut US prius prices to keep volume up for their japanese factories. I simply agree that it may happen.
     
    #18 austingreen, Apr 7, 2013
  19. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Not as high as March 2012, but 66,220 between the 2 Prii in March 2013 without incentives and despite a 15.6% overall car sales slump in Japan. There were incentives in February/April 2012 and none for february 2013. I think a"major drop" would be if sale numbers are consistent month to month, or just year-to-date numbers may be most helpful.

    Japan February 2012
    1 Toyota Aqua 21,951
    2 Toyota Prius 21,380

    Japan March 2012:
    1 Toyota Prius 45,496
    2 Toyota Aqua 29,156

    Japan April 2012:
    1 Toyota Prius 21,906
    2 Toyota Aqua 18,481

    Prius L + Prius c
    Japan March 2012 = 74,652
    Japan November 2012 = 38,346
    Japan December 2012 = 36,970
    Japan January 2013 = 33,652
    Japan February 2013 = 47,989
    Japan March 2013 = 66,220
     
    #19 Sergiospl, Apr 7, 2013
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Toyota had the option a couple of years ago to open a Prius assembly line in Mississippi.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #20 bwilson4web, Apr 7, 2013
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