extreme weather

(It's still not extreme weather, but) it turns out that people have been looking at projections of upcoming spotlessness.

[1203.1444] Variation in sunspot properties between 1999 and 2011 as observed with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter
Advises us not to extrapolate

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.4285.pdf
doesn't advise us one way or the other, but I invite you to look at their figure 6 in comparison to the NSO-sourced figure above

finally
http://www.noao.edu/staff/mpenn/PennLivingston_preprint.pdf
Which indicates that it was Penn&Livingston 'behind' the orginal extrapolations, that solar cycle 25 is going to be a bust, and that they're still doing it. Don't miss P&L's figure 1, and somebody please tell me how the error bars in the NSO figure got so tiny!

Even if we don't learn a lot about about the solar/climate connection here, I implore you to NOT to extrapolate N years from N yeaars of data. Friends don't let friends 'stat' drunk.

 

I bump this thread just to remind you that monthly sunspot numbers continue to be measured

IPS - Solar Conditions - Monthly Sunspot Numbers

and Penn and Livingston's extrapolation is not wearing well. I am nothing but glad that mojo brought this matter to our attention. Now we can watch the drama unfold.

Heck, IPS site even tells you monthlies through 2019. Cool! Obviously they are extrapolating in some way, and I am not here to defend it. But if you compare the 2012 Dec (71.6, with an e in front of it) with another site

Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction

well, form your own conclusions. I will predict no further than to say that the beginning of the swpc red curve is not gonna pan out.

 

Here is his latest installment: Climate Tribes

"

"Deniers" versus "Warmists"​

"Skeptics" versus "Alarmists"​

They are mirror images of each other in many ways.

Both have close communication among an "in-group" of similarly minded individuals with denigration of the character and intelligence of the "other side." Each has its heroes and incarnations of evil among its opponents. Both see themselves as guarding the sanctity of science and protecting the interests of mankind. In a bizarre sort of way, they need each other.

The climate "debate" is about a technical subject ... and it has become a tribal conflict; a development that one can argue is not helpful for either the science or mankind's efforts to deal with a potential threat. ...

The media, crippled by a reduction in science reporters and unwilling or unable to carefully analyze a technical subject, headlines the most ominous warnings and predictions, which are often based on press releases or material lacking proper peer review. ...

As noted above, in a strange sort of way the extreme sides of the climate debate feed off of each other. Here is an example of how this works. ..."

Full post at: Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Climate Tribes

 

the climate/environment/urbanization issue will be hitting a brick wall soon. just read this article about Phoenix. beginning to look like battery degradation from extreme heat is not the top concern for Phoenix area LEAFers

The least sustainable city: Phoenix as a harbinger for our hot future | Grist

 

Except "one side" of the debate has been shown to be generally and consistently...wrong!

Icarus

 

A decline in solar activity suggest a cooling down of our sun...if this is true then any global warming of the earth might be lessen over the long term (1000's of years) by lower solar output from our sun? In the short term we could bake but anyone that survives the baking might see a permanently colder earth?

 

So eventually - in the very far future ... all of humanity and the earth will get vaporized?

 

This conforms reasonably well with the thread topic. NOAA drought task force has released reports about the 2012 US drought

Drought Task Force Report Page | U.S. Drought Portal

I have only read the 2-page version so far. Tiny excerpt:

"...The central Great Plains drought during May-August of 2012 resulted mostly from natural variations in weather..."

The first news piece on this report I read stated just the opposite. Sorry I forgot where that was but it's weird anyway.

I guess there has been enough extreme weather the other way in the Midwest so that ag. soils are wet again and Mississippi R. traffic is running. Is that the case?

On the solar side, another mid-level CME arrives on earth today. For a sleepy sun, it certainly snores loudly.

 

My Mom called from SouthEastern Kansas, Coffeyville. The last storm front filled the 'upper pond'. She has 100 acres with 20 miniature horses.

Bob Wilson

 

Why would this surprise you DAS? Why anyone would listen/read "the news" for anything important these days is a surprise to me.

 

Yeah gabrie you brilliantly got it.....