4th generation coming 2015!

Every story has to have a photo to get people's attention, to make people click and read it. The photo has nothing to do with the next Prius, it's from their Photochop Dept..

Better Materials; I don't know the properties of the Bioplastics (Plant-based plastics), less weight? maybe you can't make soft-padded Dash with Bioplastics? I do not expect a Lexus interior, but I think because of Prius c, this Liftback is going to move Upscale and more expensive.

Also, Prius L is really not small imo when you click "Specs"! Compare Side-by-Side

 

In theory it would be behind the grill so not very big of stones would be hitting it. And it would probably need to only be a bit thicker plastic than the grill is with just a thin insulation in the middle of it (I'm envisioning the whole unit about 1/2 to 3/4 inch thick total). Ya, servo failure would be an issue but I assume a high quality one's fail rate is pretty small. Temp sensors are a dime a dozen and they could probably use a few of them to get an average and err on the side of caution in times of uncertainty. This all seems like pretty easy stuff that could be written into their software that would obviously protect the engine if failures happened. Then error codes would point to what is wrong and all of these should be cheap fixes. Regardless, I'm still hoping. (lots of assumptions in my text, but hey, that's all we have at this point anyway)

 

I agree 10mpg is not likely with existing technology, there is only so much you can tune. An extra 10 miles down the road is hard when your already at the pinnacle of what your hardware will do.

But talking about patents, many drugs run out their license to operate under a given name every 7 years in the name of recouping research costs, and so lose the ability to charge high prices.
But they will simply change one tiny chemical component that keeps basic properties and often has none or very little improvement in effects so they can market their product under a new name and again charge high label prices.
Hence "generic" verses brand name.

Sometimes I feel Toyota is doing the same thing.
Where's the new technology?

I agree it's great to make existing even more efficient, but the Atkinson engine can only go so far. Great breakthroughs are being done on the electric side but Toyota feels it's best to stick with the bread and butter as long as it lasts... Even to the point of keeping NiMh batteries just because they own a big factory that makes them and it's not cost effective to attempt to change it to other technology.

He story is that NiMh is "better" for this application....... Better for who?



Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

I suppose it's better for us and the environment if they are able to keep costs down using it thereby making it available more mainstream.

 

I guess it's a matter of priorities. When the prius first came out it took a lot of flak because of the extra cost to get the extra gas mileage. Some did it in the name if being green to feel warm and fuzzy to offset china's gross smog machine that we "used" to be when we were first were entering the age of big industry.

Regardless of the reason... Would you pay "another" 6k to get another 10mpg?
How about 12k to get another 20mpg?
18k to get another 30mpg?

If the answer is no, then how do you justify paying what you do for your prius when there are other non hybrid cars getting 40mpg that aren't bad cars? "thinking of Mazda skyactive" and they are vastly cheaper. Mazda Mazda3 Closeout | Mazda Mazda3 Deals | Car.com

Just saying..... You get what you pay for.

Sure many people can't afford the prius the way it presently is and so will settle for higher gas mileage... That will always be the case as the ante is up'd, but I'm waiting for the next groundbreaker from Toyota.... So what if it cost a little more.

It would be silly to complain about a higher price on groundbreaking technology, just like it was when the original prius came out.

I'm sure they won't get rid of the bread and butter, so those will be an option for dome time.

But I'm just tired of the hype and getting more of the same.

We used to slam American made cars cause they kept putting a new body every year on the same frame and engine and raising the price for the same horse with a different blanket for cover.

Isn't Toyota doing the same now?

Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

I have enjoyed reading all of your comments. In reality, I mentioned "better materials" and "less road noise" as concessions to what others had previously written. I am not at all unhappy with my 2010 (IV) interior, and road noise was mostly eliminated when I installed the Michelin Energy Saver tires. No complaint there.

I have no expectation of a 10 mpg improvement. I have said before that 50 mpg seems to be a number that is very difficult to exceed, else why haven't the other manufacturers been able to do it. I suspect that even 50 mpg requires the precise balance between weight, air drag, rolling resistance, the ICE size, compression ration, CVT .... and cost. I know, for example driving on a wet street, reduced fuel efficiency. I am not even sure if raising the price would do it .... consider that the Lexus at thousands more, or the Camry, have been able to reach 50 mpg.

Ford seems to have raised their fuel efficiency merely by fudging on the EPA test.

I have no interest in an EV or an AWD .... neither fits my vehicle needs, but they may yours, so I have no issues with those being offered.

But as I have said, if the G4 looks at all like the 2 depictions I have seen .... I will be driving a 2014.

 

Tesla looks appealing... But still too expensive for the common man since it doesn't have a backup to keep you going once the battery finally runs out some 300+ miles later. I'm not willing to spend 50k for only 160 mile commute... Not quite enough insurance for me!

It would take the purchase of two cars... One for your commuter, and one for out of town/vacation trips.... Maybe a used car would suffice for the latter.

While the most I care to drive on one day is maybe 500 miles, I don't want to be dependent upon lodging where power hookups are as that may be out of my way since I avoid big cities.

But it won't be long before that's practical as more and more charge stations are getting setup and technology is getting cheaper.... Or maybe not cheaper but at least your getting more bang for your money.

I'm starting to enjoy my prius now that I haven't been driving my wife's avalon all week..... I can't tell if i need new shocks now in my 2010 or if I just got spoiled with the avalons ride.

If my income was double I would get a tesla just for the fun of it, but until then I will gravitate towards a "better" ride for the money.
I don't think I could stomach the "non hybrid" mpg of the standard avalon though... Even though it's cheaper.

I'm still thinking it would be pretty easy to get 70mpg if Toyota would give it a decent size lithium bank combined with existing technology. Lithium is much lighter and more of the battery can be exercised without risk of premature loss of life expectancy.....
The competition is already pushing that envelope.... That's the only reason they are a risk to Toyota.... And they don't have the technology Toyota is using! ...

What if Toyota gets more aggressive with their batteries too, I wonder what the effect would be?

With our NiMh, we are only able to effectively use a small portion of its capacity, we quite often literally have no place to put our regen energy.... That's wasted power!

With a small battery, it's pretty hard to have a reserve standing by to accept regen while at the same time having enough on board reserve to take a decent load off the gas engine on jack rabbit starts and cruising?

They are reinventing the wheel by making everything smaller and more efficient at a great engineering and retooling expense while ignoring possibly the real bottleneck...... The battery!

Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

Alan, You raise a lot of good points. I agree with your Tesla comments ... I am not in that price bracket either. I do have two vehicles, however. We drive the Prius daily for virtually all of our running, and we have a small SUV that is fair on the highway, but we need it for it's AWD. A necessity here in the mountain west. But we drive the Prius on long X-country trips ... otherwise I could not afford to go.

Whether real or imagined, I have believed that the NiMh battery has a much longer life than the Lithium. I have read the Lithium gradually looses potential over time, whereas the Prius battery last for 100k - 150k. I have not read anything lately, but earlier there were concerns with the Volt battery (fires as well degrading). It will be interesting to see what the battery situation is with Volt and Leaf vehicles after several years.

Here in the west, distances are great. It is 80 miles to visit my daughter (just on the other side of the mountain) and we do that just about every week. So an EV is of no interest to me.

Keep the post coming, I enjoy reading all your post.

 

Ouch!?

I strongly disagree, because the Prius (II and III) design is pretty much the best Toyota has ever done, other than some of their Scion designs.

The rest of the Toyota/Lexus line up is pretty much all made up of tacky "Japanese Oldsmobile" style designs.... (The FJ was different, but over-designed and it has not aged well.)

But yes, this "2015" rendition sucks and I would not buy something that looks like it (plus, I feel that the utility of the "hatchback" needs to be preserved.

 

Want another sketch to argue about, looks futuristic! has nothing to do with Gen IV Prius!

Eric Leong’s Radical 2015 Toyota Prius Design Study | Autohotest.com

 

^ That. I want my "Minority Report" car. Does it also fly by chance? And I won't care as much if it doesn't get 10 more mpg's.

 

I like it. The Eric Leong's depiction that is. But alas, like the two previous renditions, I do not suspect for a moment that the G4 will look like that either.

Isn't it interesting that the two previous artist sketches bear absolutely nothing in common. One is a smooth line from front to back, and the other has that abrupt transition from hood to windshield.

I know these are all just sketches, but I could easily learn to love the looks of the just mentioned smooth transition design, but to include the rear of the Leong design. The cabin roof will be much more conventional that Loeng's depiction.

Personally, I like the sculptured side panels as depicted in all of the sketches. Hopefully over the next 8-10 months, Toyota will release a few teasers and we will have a better idea. Or possibly, even disguised models will be seen in their final road test. It should be interesting.

One thing I am certain of: Toyota has been the "leader of the pack" with the Prius. Now, most everyone is right on their tail, nipping at their heels. Toyota will need to come up with something rather special in terms of design or fuel efficiency to maintain the lead.

 

I agree that's the argument, but of course I'm skeptical due to constant bombardment of skewed media. You have to realize I also study and watch Wallstreet. Seems almost in one breath they twist the news to motivate folks their direction so they can be in a point of advantage when the move happens.
So I always try to read between the lines.

Seems interpreting news is similar to solving a murder case... First you have to see who has a motive to have such news.

At any rate, enough rambling, all I know is every lithium cell I've ever had in my home far outlast as well as outperforms any NiMh cell I've ever had.

While it's true, the lithium may lose a tad total capacity over time, but all the other benefits outweigh NiMh Imo simply because of energy density..... even after its aged.

There is good reason why virtually every device and tool is moving away from NiMh. Customers get more for the buck.

Think about this...
They praise the NiMh, but then don't let you use the top 20 percent nor the bottom 40 percent?.. So it "appears" to not lose capacity over time, but what if the same safety margins were applied to the lithium?

All in all, seems lithium is much more energy dense for the weight and can actually endure "more" punishment not less than NiMh?

It could have to do with quality of battery too.
Tesla. Controls quality by making their own lithium cells as Toyota does their NiMh.
If I remember right even Toyota is using tesla make lithium batteries for them for
The Rav 4.
How To Buy A New Tesla For Half Price Without Having To Wait Forever

Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

The reason Toyota doesn't fully use the NiMh battery capacity in the Prius is that the BMS required to keep the cells balanced costs more than doubling battery capacity (50% utilization delays almost all imbalance failures to after the warranty period). The equation changes with Lithium as there are fewer cells (1.2v/cell for NiMh and 3.6v/cell for Lithium) in series and a full function BMS is then less expensive. Note that our 6.5 amp/hour battery regularly handle 15C-18C currents (100 amps in Gen2 and 130 amps in Gen3) and LiOn must be limited to about 3C currents to avoid degradation so a LiOn battery in our application would need to have 5-6 times the rated capacity.

JeffD

 

I have seen 4.4 kWh PiP Lithium battery put out 41 kW so that's about 9C.

Regen is just a bit better than the 1.31 kWh NiMH.

 

<"I agree 10mpg is not likely with existing technology, there is only so much you can tune. An extra 10 miles down the road is hard when your already at the pinnacle of what your hardware will do." >

I agree with you there except you are referencing 3rd Gen HSD which is the pinnacle and will expire next year. The 4th Gen HSD will introduce a host of advanced new technologies that will make the 3rd Gen HSD technology and patents expendable next year. That is why +10 mpg is not only attainable but more than likely possible in the 4th Gen HSD. The 5th gen HSD is using battery technology less volatile but more importantly, more powerful. Also new more powerful re-generators and continuing innovations in ICE technologies like using DI-4 on Atkinson Engines are part of the 4th gen HSD.

Current Lithium-Ion Battery Technology is still in its infancy and as many consumers have found out, it is very volatile. Tesla and the Chevy-Volt have experienced Bricking issues and fires stemming from their Lithium-Ion Batteries and as Boeing found out in the 787 electrical fires. Laptop and cell phone lithium-ion batteries have been implicated in many consumer fires and even in my Samsung Galaxy S3, when the environment gets too hot, the battery starts a runaway drain process. Many manufacturers have used many cooling technologies to manage the volatility of Lithium Ion Batteries but it will be a constant issue.

Toyota will always be faulted for not jumping the gun and implementing new unproven and unreliable technologies.

 

Ford is using Lithium in their new Fusion hybrid instead of Nimh, and it does not look like there is an advantage in performance, trunk cu. ft. or mpg.

2012 Toyota Camry Hybrid XLE First Test - Motor Trend
0-60 MPH7.2 sec
QUARTER MILE 15.5 sec @ 91.5 mph

 

I agree, but in my previous post I pointed out that the only reason they have a chance to compete "is" the lithium technology.... Remember they don't have the other wonderful hardware and efficiency that Toyota uses.

Add lithium to Toyota "or" add NiMh to Ford and I bet the margin vastly widens!

Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

I agree they play it conservative and that's a good thing, that builds trust and respect.... However, it's been years now... We need a major advancement.

So many technologies we use must be cooled to achieve the efficiency and workload desired.... Ie: engines, transmissions..... all sorts of electrical components from diode bridges, stators, transformers on the telephone pole, computer processors, and compressors to the nuclear reactors that make our power.

That's why tesla bathes their lithium cells in a liquid to maintain perfect temp balance between not too hot nor too cold so max output is achievable with longevity.

Nothing wrong with that... It's a smart move. So many things will run for 20 years if kept cool but will blow up in 20 minutes if not.

The car, plane, and locomotive we enjoy today was not built with one persons idea or tools..... It took all of us working together building on each others enginuity.

True, motivation to invent was to be the first to hit the market to make a buck, while others used cool calculation to make something more reliable than could be trusted and wouldn't fall apart nor cost a fortune and I attribute the latter to Toyota.

But at the same time I'm excited at the competition. It gives Toyota motivation to move on "isn't that part of their slogan?", rather than sit and enjoying the view from the top of he heap.

Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2

 

Considering what Toyota improved(22-26%) with the 2012 Camry hybrid MPG over the 2011 Camry Hybrid using 3rd Gen HSD Ni-Mh technology, I would say Ford's really fudged number of 47/47/MPG/City/combined would have been exceeded if Toyota had used a Li-Ion battery in the 2012 Camry Hybrid. Another thing for all other Hybrid manufacturers who are dancing around patent infringement, it is hard to lead from behind, when you are so far behind the learning curve. Add to that Ford is also perennial cellar dweller and knuckle dragging when it comes to Reliability and Quality. I don't think of Ford is as much competition as Ford likes to think it is.