Gasoline Sales Discussion

The lower gasoline price, increased domestic production, refineries going out of business, and push to add taxes to the Prius seemed like disconnected facts and data. Since we are about six weeks into sequestration, I thought to take a look at USA gasoline sales and was surprised to see a 50% reduction in the past six years:

U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners (Thousand Gallons per Day)

There are hypothesis to test:

• too many Prius and fuel efficient cars - need to gather USA fleet miles. The Prius has only been less than 3% of all sales so it doesn't sound like a Prius effect.
• economy still in a tail-spin - driving is being replaced by not going anywhere, public transportation or other.

Looking at diesel fuel sales, I don't see a strong, economic dip:

Curious dip in the June 2010 time frame.

Bob Wilson

 

It had never occurred to me that sales is not equivalent to usage. Regardless, the highest resolution is 'per month' and the 'per year' chart leaves the more recent data out of the graph if I read the legend "US Motor Gasoline Consumption 1950-2010 With Projection 2011." In contrast, the monthly data shows everything up to January 2013.

Bob Wilson

 

This is why I posted the most accurate, high resolution data available. There are other hypothesis:

• high gasoline prices - have folks switched from low MPG to high MPG driving?
• California hybrid penetration - with 1/4th of the US economy, if the Prius has a substantial presence, it might have a disproportionate effect on gasoline savings.

It is a puzzle but the data is consistent with some of the other effects we are seeing.

Bob Wilson

 

Two different numbers:

• "Produced"
• "Retail sales"

I wonder if the difference might be gasoline exports? Need to check the definitions.

Here are the data plotted together:


One possibility would be non-brand, gasoline retailers are taking the difference. We may be seeing the decline of refinery or petroleum company, retail sales as part of the decrease. But looking at the trend line, there has been a reduction in gasoline sales that is not fully understood.

Bob Wilson

 

When I asked Google for "gasoline sales .gov", I got three links and clicked on the first:

U.S. Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes​

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1, 2013 – Beginning January 2007, oxygenated gasoline is included in conventional gasoline. In conjunction with this change, total sales for resale has ...​

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U.S. Total Gasoline All Sales/Deliveries by Prime Supplier ... - EIA​

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s...f=mReferring Pages: Prime Supplier Sales Volumes of Motor Gasoline · Prime Supplier Sales of Motor Gasoline · U.S. Prices, Sales Volumes & Stocks.​

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U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners (Thousand Gallons per ...​

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s...f=mMotor Gasoline Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Sales Volumes · U.S. Motor Gasoline Refiner Sales Volumes · U.S. Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Motor ...​

The first one had a default, yearly summary but I could tell it was not reflecting the most current data. Once I changed the scale to monthly, the 50% reduction was apparent. The second link is the larger number and I hadn't looked at it until iClaudius cited the annual sales. Both came from the same source so there was a conundrum.

The first chart got our total USA gasoline consumption wrong because it is limited to refinery retail sales . . . probably brand-name gasoline. But I suspect those who want to justify a "Prius tax" are more than willing to use this to justify a Prius tax. But the 6% decline also reflects a hard change in gasoline consumption which we still don't have a good model to explain.

In absolute numbers, the production decline is half that of the refinery retail sales. This suggests 'generic' gas picked up more customers. For example, Costco/Sams retail sales may be going up while Exxon/Shell are going down. Given the typical 5% higher pump prices I tend to see at the different stations, this makes sense.

This link from the U.S. Energy Information Agency has a pointer to the stockpile inventory:
Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Energy Information Administration

The inventory looks to be fairly flat, just over 200 million barrels (200,000 'thousand barrels'.) The winter blend often has butane dissolved in it to improve cold-start performance. So I suspect it has a little shorter storage life.

Bob Wilson

 

Serendipity, Google found the very report, published April 20, today:
DOT: Monthly Miles Driven



Also,


There appears to be a recent correlation between decreasing miles driven and the last three peaks and two bottoms of fuel prices. This corresponds to my recent, anecdotal observations.

The biggest gain from this paper are the references to source data.

I am sorry about the thread title, I took the first entry from a Google search not realizing it was specific to the refineries and not the general gasoline market.

Bob Wilson

 

Not the first time and it led to a better understanding of the facts and data. I'm still interested in the data and now it appears we can get monthly data.

I'm looking forward to seeing if my anecdotal observations of lower than expected gas prices, less traffic, and less restaurant/bar activity have empirical data behind them. Sad to say, the three month delay in the monthly data means we may not see credible data about the effects of sequestration until July or August.

Still, if you have a specific set of edits, feel free to propose them. I've learned something and gained insights which is one of the reasons I hang out here. But if you want the thread to go away, to censor our discussion, feel free to use the "report" option. No doubt some members would approve . . . any guesses who?

Bob Wilson