Craving to trade in my PIP for a Tesla Model S

Given a choice of two things, I'd prefer the stock. I'm already a "bit" player with a Prius Plug In.

My wife and I had two Mercedes SLKs at the same time. I sold mine, she still has hers. I swore I'd never own two, same model cars, at the same time. Duplication of effort, and one is under utilized. If I could sell my wife on a Prius, I'd make a exception and have two Prius PIPs.

Smart move. See reply above.

 

We were extremely happy with two Prii and are probably going to be extremely happy with two Model Ss (although one may be their third gen).

We also felt pretty weird about two of the same model. However, the Prius met all of our needs, so it really didn't make sense not to.

 

I believe the depreciation on BEVs (and even PHEVs) will be higher than you anticipate -- I expect it to mirror cars in general (as they define the broader market and are always a possible "replacement".) If one looks at value and TCO one can justify a BEV/PHEV, at least in part, as prepaying for the reduced fuel costs, the degrading battery impacts value more than in an ICE> Battery replacement costs are much higher for a big pack than a ICE engine overhall. There are fewer possible replacement parts. Unlike an engine block, the battery degrades by just sitting there -- its inherent in Li-Ion chemistry in 10-12 years, even if unused, the pack can loose a lot of it usable energy (down to 80% even with no driving), and in 15-18 its probably a must-replace at under 50% and degrading more and more rapidly. The degrade can be lessened with thermal management and active conditioning.. but we'll have to see. The biggest thing impacting value is perception so if even only a handful have problems it will decrease the value for everyone -- just ask leaf owners trying to sell after the Phoenix effect.

But I think the real reason the will depreciate is that better things will come along and many people that can afford a BEV will be trading in for the newest thing. There will be model S owners that want to switch to Model X (or Model Z or F or whatever tesla wants to do next). If you are right about them defining/controlling pre-owned certified, Tesla could help keep the market a bit higher which may be the only way to keep that market value up. (Don't expect any other BEV/PHEV dealer to do that.. free market will drive down the price for used). However, I expect that for Teslas, like other high-end cars, part of the "value" in the initial purchase is the luxury/prestige factor, which does not translate as well to the "used" market -- even for certified pre-owned. I do hope Tesla's and other BEV/PHEVs retain their value better than average but don't agree with your analysis that they will.

 

drinnovation, Tesla offers a "pre-paid" replacement battery, if you are worried about it.
For the 85KW Model S, it's $12,500, with the stipulation that is availble on year 8 and beyond.
They are banking on the fact that battery pricing will come down, and they get your money now.
With that said, many are not getting it, figuring the battery will still work for them for their future needs until 10-12 years, which is beyond the lifetime of most cars anyway, many people don't keep a car that long, but the Model S could prove to be different, as I said, there is nothing else on the market to compare it to, and there may never be.

The Model S will also likely have 3rd party battery pack rebuilding company's by then anyway, who will rebuild/refurbish your pack for less than Teslas replacement pack.

Teslas next vehicle (3rd Gen) will be a lower end car, it won't be in the same class as the Model S, so I don't see many trading "down" to it. Tesla also makes it easy to upgrade to their latest top end Model S for any owner at anytime, just pay the difference between the fancy new model and your car, drive it off. See Elon's service announcement on Friday.

 

another factor worth considering is the secondary market for the the Tesla's battery packs. While an 80% reduced capacity battery pack may not be suitable in a vehicle, it is still very suitable for other applications, say perhaps a nationwide network of fast charging stations.

Also, keep in mind the nature of the Tesla's battery pack, a very large array of individually replaceable cells, resulting in very granular refurbishment methods.

an interesting business for Tesla will be the refurbishment services. replacing worn upholstery, upgrading consumer electronics, etc ...

I really like the 1%/month business model. It lends itself to introduce the "Telsa for life" service. I realized awhile back that most home payments equate to 1%/month by the time insurance, taxes, interest and principle are factored in.

Saw another Model S today as well.

 

I almost put some money in Ballard fuel cells. They did all research and built the fuel cells and found very little demand. Last I heard they were on stand down waiting for demand to pick-up. If ever!

 

I think they are waiting for better storage vessel batteries, larger/cheaper/lighter! Something diffrent?

 

I wonder how the federal tax credit would work if you traded up to the loaner.

I think the people that traded their sportster in for a model s were able to claim the $7500 twice.

 

I wouldn't see why not.
If someone buys a PiP, then trades it in for a new PiP they can claim the credit twice.

 

It probably depends on if the loaner is considered "new" and has not had the $7500 claimed against it's VIN. I know a few of the dealer Volt loaners/demos were not eligible for the federal tax credit because the dealer had purchased the vehicle for use rather than stock.

 

Aha, excellent point!
Not really sure.

 

The Model S looks cool but driving next to one in my PiPA, I was surprised to see how much lower it was...no thanks.

 

You are way off on your 10-12 years...the average age of a car on the road is over 10 years old. This means for every brand new car there is one that is 20 years old.

Average age of cars on U.S. roads rises to record 10.8 years - Los Angeles Times

Perhaps most people that buy "new" cars only keep them for ~10-12 years. But somebody else picks them up used and keeps them for many years after that.

In 10 years, I'd guess that 95% of people with a 2013 Model S will have gotten rid of it and have (and able to afford) something newer with better technology.

Mike

 

I love my plugin. I haven't even had it a year yet (May 9th, it's going to be a year old!) and I already have over 32K miles on it.
Perhaps a Tesla would be a nice 2nd car for some, but methinks I will drive the wheels off this beauty!

 

I haven't been following this thread closely...

Rav4 EV (aka "poor man's Tesla") is EPA rated at a tad over 100 miles of range.

Tony Williams got 130 miles on his rental (My Nissan Leaf Forum • View topic - Official Toyota RAV4 EV Thread) before buying. That included some 85 mph time on the highway.

However, LA to Vegas might be dicey w/the above. I don't think there's much charging infrastructure that would work on non-Tesla between the two points once you leave the LA area.

He did succeed in taking his Leaf from Mexico to Canada (My Nissan Leaf Forum • View topic - Mexico to Canada via Electric Highway June 12-20, 2012). Some fellow Leafers drove his car back the other direction. Unfortunately, Rav4 EV has no CHAdeMO compatibility, which Tony was able to use a few times in CA and to great advantage in OR and WA.

 

No one ever said It's not possible to drive a Leaf extended distances with the availability of Chademo DCFC on the west coast, parts of TX and TN.

The issue is, the Model S is built and designed for long distance usage. Using the SuperCharger does not degrade the pack much at all, it's charging at 1C typically (85KW pack, 90KW SuperCharger, soon to be upgraded to 120KW). The leafs 24KW pack charged at a typical 50KW Chademo rate is 2C, more importantly there is no thermal management on the Leafs pack, as their is on the Model S.

Anyway, the Model S is expense, and not everyone can afford it, but Teslas 3rd gen car will be affordable, and will likely have many of the same pack management features of the Model S. just going to take until 2016/2017 to be availble...

 

The Leaf doesn't get 100 miles, it is EPA rated at 84 as I recall.
The RAV4ev has an EPA range around 100. Reports I have heard is 130 is not uncommon.
Whichever you consider, I would strongly recommend test driving each.

 

From a purely financial standpoint the Leaf is a better option due to price. The Rav4 EV even with incentives is still very pricey. For full electric fun the Leaf and Volt would my my choices. I only added the Volt because of the available rebates which puts it under $28k here in Cali and its electric most of the time.