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A 100 year cold record may about to be broken.
Nenana Ice Classic – closing in on all time record latest ice-out | Watts Up With That?

 

A 100 year cold record may about to be broken.
Nenana Ice Classic – closing in on all time record latest ice-out | Watts Up With That?

 

A 100 year cold record may about to be broken.
Nenana Ice Classic – closing in on all time record latest ice-out | Watts Up With That?

 

Same multi-posting thing has happened to me, mojo.

the ice classic web site
Nenana Ice Classic

the historical data
Breakup Database Results

which can be plotted, yielding linear relationship that the ice breakup date is moving earlier at 0.078 days per year. The R2 is 0.138, which is hardly thrilling. But the slope is signif diff from 0 at p=0.05, which is the most common test for such things.

Let us put in a 2013 date of 5/22 just for fun. This reduces the slope to 0.064, and the R2 to 0.087

Variability, ya know? Big weather patterns moving around. earliest in this record is 4/20/1998, a year well known to us all.

But, if someone runs a web site that selectively reports information that will lead the simple minded to ignore long term patterns that include variability, you can bet your boots that that someone is going to have a page on 2013 iceout.

A lot of iceout dates are known for a lot of rivers. There have been review studies. The patterns are clear. Sigh.

 

I always assume all people are good until proven otherwise.

 

The Weather Channel has been showing live coverage of the Oklahoma tornadoes including helicopter coverage. Good thing we're not seeing any unusually severe weather.

Bob Wilson

 

While we had near record late ice out (as note above) in sub arctic Hudson Bay area, and we had a record cold March and April, according to Environment Canada, it was a fairly localized phenomena. At the are time as we were experiencing temps 5-10C lower than normal, temps in the high Canadian Arctic were experiencing temps 5-10C higher than normal. So as has been said before, to equate on seasons local variation as proof of climate change (or proof Tht it is a haox for that matter!) is simply fallacy.

One needs to look at the over all trends, and the consiquential of of the changes. For example it has been suggested that temps are going to rise faster in the high arctic and the consequences of such warming are greatest in such high latitudes. The change in net albedo of the high reticent, coupled with less sea ice, rising annual sea temps, and perhaps most importantly the impact of CO2 release from the same, and if one is not worried, one ought to be, even factoring in late ice out this season.

Just for the record, we have ice out records going back nearly 100 years. our latest ice out ever was, 2013, May 18. The next earliest was 2005, May 15th. Our averqge is May 4th. Up until the yer 2002 we never had an Ice out in April. In that year it went out April 19th. since then we have had three years in very early April, 2012, April 2, April 3' 2010, and April 12 2007.

So it was only a matter of time before someone chimed in with "Whats Up"!

Icarus

 

Severe weather is normal.We have less severe weather today with rising CO2.
Rising CO2 brings less tornadoes, less hurricanes, less drought.
Normal sea surface temps and less water vapor in the atmosphere as well.

 

Yes but when the continental USA gets hot, its a record breaking heatwave and proof of global warming.Localized as well being <2% of the Earths surface.
BS is fun to dish out .But no fun to eat.

 

But keep an eye out for evidence of a mini Ice Age.
Which is predicted by astrophysicists.
Alaska and Europe and the midwest USA are not just local phenomena.

 

Curious physics you live in, the earth gets warmer but there is 'less water vapor.' Water vapor condensation has always been the fuel feeding thunderstorms. Still, 'climate denier science' like 'creation science' remains a curious oxymoron that regardless of semantics has no effect on empirical measurements.

Bob Wilson

 

Show me an instance where increased water vapor or sea surface temps has fueled severe weather.
Hurricane Sandy no way dont bother.You are spewing BS.

 

BTW yes the Earth has supposedly warmed but atmospheric water vapor has lessened.That kind of pokes holes in your severe weather theory.
Get a clue, Trenberth and Hansen are liars.

 

I was wondering earlier this evening where you, Mojo, got your education?

The reason why is your posts lack original thought showing any engineering, chemistry, physics, or science in your posts. It is as if you have no basic understanding of high school or college chemistry and physics or math enough to evaluate whether the stuff you cut-and-paste has any credibility. For example, I have:

• high school chemistry - 1966
• high school physics - 1966-67
• undergraduate chemistry - 1968-69
• undergraduate physics - 1968-69
• undergraduate thermodynamics - 1970
• undergraduate statistics, probability, calculus through differential equations - 1968-1993
• pilot's license which includes a lot of aviation weather - 1976-80

The ignorance of your latest posting, makes me wonder how your education could have been so neglected:

Source: Mojo nonsense

Your posting history suggests we'll have to start with elementary and junior high school training. For example, every single thunderstorm begins with:

Source: Dangerous Weather

These thunderstorms are the precursors to severe storms that eventually lead to tornadoes and hurricanes:

Source: ibid

Now if you had studied chemistry, you would understand the 'heat of vaporization" which is released when the water condenses:

Source: Enthalpy of vaporization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
These are metric units so one "j" Joule is 1 Watt second. So a "jK" is a kilowatt second. A "kg" is a kilogram or 2.2 lbs. Do you understand the units?

So lets take 2,260 jK Watt seconds and convert them into kilowatt hours, something you might find on a utility bill . . . you do have one, right?

• 2,260 / (60*60) = .63 kWhr
• 2.2 lbs of water / 8.3 lbs/gal -> 0.26 gallons of water
• .63 kWhr / .26 gal -> 2.42 kWhr per gallon

So the amount of rain from any storm including flooding storms like Sandy and every other hurricane, typhoon, monsoon, tornado storm, down to a small shower, all of them are dumping huge amounts of water releasing megawatts of stored, solar energy captured by evaporating water. This is a test question:

• How much energy is released by 1" of water rain in an circular area of 20 mile diameter?
  • Hint: first calculate the gallons of water and the use the energy per gallon to calculate how many kilowatts of energy.

Ignorance can be cured by going to adult education courses, community college, or any one of hundreds of study courses of which some are online. But ignorant 'cut-and-paste', well 'cry baby' because it has no effect and kinda shows your own lack of education.

So what was your educational background? Home schooling? Oral Roberts? Liberty University? Drop-out?

Bob Wilson

 

I'm very patient with the ignorant. How will they ever get better if we don't address the basic physics, chemistry, and natural sciences that leaves them victim to those who would lead them astray.

Bob Wilson

 

Mojo,

The world must look oh so nice through those rose colored lenses buried so deep in the sand!

I do indeed understand the variability, and indeed that is why I noted that while we were cooler than normal this spring, areas in the far north (continued to be ) were much warmer than normal, and why I noted the average and variable ice outs in recent decades.

One only needs to look at total ice mass in high latitudes, (both north and south) and not just look at ice area, to realize that the predictive models are coming true. The only issue amongst those that truly understand the issues is how large the temperature rise is likely to be and how fast.

Icarus

 

Hi Bob,


Again, if you're talking about tornadoes, you need more than just moisture and instability. Shear is the most important factor in tornado development because that is what induces the "spin" or rotation to the updraft. As a pilot, you must be familiar with shear, especially low-level wind shear (LLWS entry in TAFs, when applicable).

I also don't like the explanation of supercell thunderstorms in your reference. Supercells require shear because they by definition rotate. The main reason why supercells are able to persist typically much longer than any other individual thunderstorm structures is because the shear tilts the updraft preventing the rain core from falling into and collapsing the updraft, which is what happens in, e.g., typical diurnal air mass ("pulse") thunderstorms (lifecycle is typically only 30-45 minutes). Supercells can sometimes persist for hours.

 

Where do I sign up for that job?

 

Yet you have no capability of logic or common sense.
A brain is a terrible thing to waste.'
As well as all that tuition.

 

BTW I recently had a discussion with someone who studied physics and chemistry .They began their argument about why carbon MONOXIDE is dangerous GHG pollutant.
OMFuckingG
And no ,they werent making a slip of the tongue.
They thought Carbon Monoxide was causing global warming.