Dashboard Feb-May 2013

So, if PIP had a battery size similar to C-Max or Fusion Energi, the sales numbers would have been better than the Fords?

 

I would think so. The 2 energis have 866 sales in may, and they still are working out production kinks, the prius phv 678. Now the prius liftback has sales of 15330, while the ford hybrids only sell 6596. That represents a much higher take rate for plug-ins on the newer less popular ford hybrids. Now Ford never claimed to have optimized the c-max energi to be a plug in, what they did was take a tall european model and make a hybrid of it for america. This was cheaper than doing a clean sheet design, and it shows but isn't too bad. If they would have designed it as a plug-in, as john claims the Gen III plug-in was, they would have made the front more aerodynamic, and the vehicle longer to hold more batteries and give higher cargo volume. I think ford went a little cheap on R&D for the c-max, but Ford does not have deep pockets. The ford energis are also hurt by an awful marketing campaign touting unreachable epa mpg.

From the prius phv's prototype, the prius phv could have held about 50% more batteries, but toyota chose to reduce them further, targeting some really short range drivers, that we don't appear to have in america. It was a worse disappointment in Japan, where the vehicle appears to have been targeted. If toyota had a bigger battery, with more of an ev experience, then I have no doubt the prius phv would be selling better. Certainly you would expect at least 1000/month. I expect them to have a better vehicle in the redesign, with a larger battery and more of an ev experience.

 

Any reason why the 2 Energi are added? They are 2 different vehicles; Fusion Energi: 450; C-Max Energi:416. Let's not singled out PIP when all plug-ins including those with bigger batteries, available nationwide are also not selling well.

 

one R&D project to add the plug in capacity to the same ford hybrid interface. I was looking at the take rates also for the newest plug-ins. But if you want to claim 4th place instead of 5th place for the prius phv, that is fine with me. You asked if toyota phevs would outsell fords, I didn't even realize you were being sarcastic. I don't think toyota was shooting to be number 4. My response on this thread is mainly a response to those that said the prius battery pack was the perfect size. I'm sure you aren't confused like that. It is a compromise that is too small for the american market. The pundits on this forum, that thought that the prius phv would vastly be outselling the Tesla S, Leaf, and Volt because there batteries were too big, and people would not pay for them, appear to be completely wrong.

I suspect toyota already understands these facts and an improved phv is in the works. Do you think they are going to stick with the 4.4kwh pack that they thought was optimal in 2008? BTW, I also think toyota is completely wrong in there marketing to push future fuel cell cars. Those press releases talking about how batteries are too expensive have to hurt them in the eyes of plug-in buyers that don't believe the hydrogen hype.

 

In total numbers they are selling less than the PiP, but we should consider their non plug in sibling's sales.

Toyota sold over 15,000 liftbacks last month. The PiPs sold during that time is only about 4% of that number. On the other hand, Ford sold only in the low 3,000 of each, the Fusion and C-max hybrids. The Energis' sales are roughly 13% of them. I used some really sloppy and lazy math for that, but splitting or clumping the Ford models numbers for it doesn't lead to differing results since the numbers for the models are close.

Ford is selling a higher ratio of PHVs to hybrids than Toyota. Why is that? EV range and market region are the big difference between the Toyota and the Fords, and the PiP is the one lacking in those areas. It is a reasonable assumption that an improvement in one or both areas should increase its sales in relation to the liftback's. With a 20ish mile EV range and nationwide availablility, a theoretical PiP could be selling twice as many Volts, the PHV sales champ, in a month.

Total sale numbers are still important. The Fords are still new though. The C-max Energi was available in Oct, and the Fusion in Feb. The Fusion numbers have only been climbing since then. The C-max might be leveling off, like PiP, from the past 4 months of sales. Perhaps there is a newness influence driving more sales than the PiP. The PiP does have the coattails of an established and popular sibling to ride.

Of course, the Volt is handedly whooping them all by nearly a thousand cars sold a month. What was its EV range again?

 

Plug-ins are not selling regardless of battery size. I don't know whether PIP battery size was to keep weight down, cargo space and the HV mpg at 50, because the prototype was about 5.2 kwh or so. I want more range also if weight can be controlled.

 

Gen IV prius liftback is rumored to be 150 lbs lighter than the gen III. The larger pack in the ford energis add about 250lbs to the hybrids, so if the new gen IV prius phv gains similar range it will weigh about 100 lbs more than the gen III prius liftback (3050 -150 +250). That is a little less than my girlfriend, and I don't think carrying her with me adversely affects my fuel efficiency or the cars handling.

The marketing material toyota put out was mainly about batteries being expensive, so they wanted it to be smaller than you would use in a trip. You don't want to waste batteries. The buyers of these things on the other hand want to stay in the battery, and not waste oil. The number toyota gave CM for their phev study, partially funded by toytota, was $1200/kwh. Critisims of that study were wide, and many focused on battery costs going down, DOE thinks down to $300/kwh, and people wanting an ev experience. So would you pay $500 more after tax credits, for a car that got 80% more electric range, could stay in ev with higher acceleration, but dropped CD mpg by 1 mpg?

I don't think 32K sales in 5 months or a 129% growth rate is bad at all for the plug in market. Many just last summer were predicting a total bust. Its lower than the presidents goal, but not very many of us believed that at the time. We will be at a million in 2017 or 2018 not 2015.

I also would not throw out data and just skew it to california. What good does that do? The only reason I can think of throwing away 2/3 of the sales and 49 states is if you want to draw the wrong conclusions. I'm sure there is a NYT reporter that would like to prove plug-ins can't work in the cold, but Norway is also a big market.

 

Toyota has been overwhelmingly clear that is not the purpose of a plug-in hybrid.

They focused on need, not want. Significantly boosting MPG and reducing emissions is that need. A pure EV experience is the want.

Don't forget that they'd like to deliver another vehicle with a plug and an engine, a configuration different than Prius.

 

The Tesla numbers I believe are guesses as they don't report monthly sales numbers, unlike most major automakers and some not so major. They only report their deliveries/sales as part of their quarterly financials. And, as w/all companies, there's also lag between end of quarter and their earnings release.

Tesla numbers are also goofy because they still have a huge backlog of orders. It'll be interesting to see when that gets whittled down and what kind of incoming US order rate they can maintain.

 

More cryptic stuff john. Yes its abundantly clear on Toyota's first phev they decided it would sell even if it did not go as far as a commute. Sales figures seem to be saying the market wants something different.

No one needs a hybrid, people do want them. If you don't even need a hybrid why would you need a plug in hybrid? Seems like you don't really understand needs. Ofcourse if you are trying to sell to those folks that want a plug-in hybrid, you may want to ask them about range. I'm sure toyota has had ample feedback that the range is too damn short, and will try to correct it on the next attempt. Or do you think they will really stick with the same size battery because they are serving needs not wants?

Sure, they thought that people wanted a city bev, but were smart enough to kill the IQ in the womb. They seem to think people want fuel cell vehicles, but I have no idea why? Maybe because they can get government money. I hope they are cooking up a 50 mile phev though, and boost the gen IV prius phv with at least 50% more range and power before the ice kicks in.

Add in also that US numbers will go down during the year as they ship to other countries. They were able to increase product last quarter, but not enough to continue US sales at this rate.

 

We have a problem with oil dependency and air pollution. That need is blatant.

Balance has always been a fundamental with the approach to Prius. There has always been an effort to increase efficiency, but not at the expense of making it out of reach for consumers. Each generation delivers improvement.

And what's with the continued one-size-fits-all mindset? Who says there will only be a single choice offered?

How can that conclusion be drawn with such contradictory evidence? Both Ford plug-in hybrids offer greater capacity. They are more widely available, offer a larger tax-credit, yet aren't selling as well.

 

Yeah, the iQ EV apparently exists in very limited numbers but isn't available for sale to consumers. IIRC, some folks have seem them in So Cal.

As for FCVs, well, it's not just Toyota that's been mucking w/this. It seems all the major automakers have some FCV program of one sort of another (e.g. GM, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai/Kia, Honda, Mercedes, etc.) I test drove a few at AltCar Expo last year.

I haven't followed the CA ZEV program closely but the slide deck at Toyota Rav4 EV Forum • View topic - Why did Toyota build Rav4 EV? What happens after 2014 ? might help. It makes a few references. It seems like it'd help w/ZEV compliance.

I'm not fan of FCVs, but at least people can get over the slow recharging times of EVs and the cars themselves emit nothing other than water vapor. But, from looking at the hardware on display at Alt Car Expo, it's a hell of a lot more complex than a BEV. You've got not only the EV bits (electric motor, battery for buffer/storage and associated systems) but you've got all these other bits associated w/the fuel cell.

I put up some pics at Picasa Web Albums - cwerdna - Alt Car Expo .... Ignore the last 2, those are for the CHAdeMO tow generator Nissan brought to charge their Leafs.

One of the reps that rode w/me mentioned that one application for exceed electric generation capacity at night was create hydrogen.

edit: Toyota Rav4 EV Forum • View topic - Why did Toyota build Rav4 EV? What happens after 2014 ? and some posts beyond it might have some stuff about the motivation for FCVs.

 

Huh? "Needs and Wants" just sounds like Psycho-Babble trying to justify the wrong decision. Here are my goals:

1) Minimize Pollution. Home solar power of an EV is the ultimate goal. (The EV part can be accomplished with an EV or PHEV with sufficient range. Oak Trees are by biggest solar power limitation.)
2) Minimize fear in the spouse and myself of a completely new technology. (The Prius is reliable, the Volt maybe?)
3) Make sure every purchase is sending the right message to the manufacturer.

Toyota scored a direct hit with the Prius. GM sure did pick a good market with the Volt. The PiP is just flat wimpy as a PHEV. GM has usually bungled most everything they have done previously. These are concrete aspects being evaluated, not some abstract need/want silliness.

 

As you are quite well aware, it takes a long time to collect enough data to show a pattern.

In the past, I provided detail and other owners sounded off stating they saw similar results. It was nice knowing I represented the typical owner fairly well. Of course, I wasn't doing anything special and I had to endure the depths of Minnesota each year. So, that was expected.

But now, even with so much real-world data, having a plug introduces yet another variable. Nonetheless, it is still quite helpful to have something genuine to work with. All those crude estimates we have to deal with sure are frustrating.

The following are the totals, spanning from March 11, 2012 to March 10, 2013:

PHP:

18,477 Total Miles
 6,328 EV Miles (displayed amount)
12,123 HV Miles (displayed amount)
   365 Days (12 months)
   574 Recharges (based on capacity replenished)
 239.9 Total Gallons (measured at the pump)
 1,721 Total kWh (including charging losses)
 1,505 Total kWh (displayed amount)
  77.0 Lifetime MPG
  50.5 MPG (HV)
    27 kWh /100 miles

 

John, you seem to arbitrarily decide what people's needs are.
Needs, beyond food and shelter, are really wants, and not everyone agrees on what those wants are.

The majority of car buyers, buy based on wants.

And many people have mentioned people want the EV driving experience, which translates into more EV miles.
Many people will call this want a 'need' or 'must have'.

So how do you define a want vs a need?

If the PIP meets more people's needs than the Volt does (we are selling ours BTW), why are more Volt's being sold than PIP? And why is Toyota only officially selling them in 15 states?

 

Hmm you say we "need" to reduce gas usage.. but then you "need" a bigger battery as your own data suggests you could greatly reduce gas usage if only you had greater EV range. you are only around 34% EV and while a few days show much longer distances most are greater than 14miles but 80% are < 60miles (so within a charge and a half). I down loaded your year 1 data and did an analysis. Presuming EPA 38 miles per charge and 37mpg, and your listed data on daily miles, charging, etc, a Volt would have approximtely yielded you

PHP:

VOLT APPROXIMATION
18,477 Total Miles
14,742 EV Miles (Estimated amount)
3,735 HV Miles (Estimated amount)
365 Days (12 months)
100.9 Total Gallons (Estimated using 37MPG)
5300 kWh Total kWh (including charging losses using EPA estimate)
183 Lifetime MPG
37 MPG (EPA)
36 kWh /100 miles (EPA)


that is you would have used less than half the gas, had 2.5x much higher lifetime MPG (and saved around another $500 in fuel costs). And if you had driven conservatively (I average 40% better than EPA), would have done even better. Guess you "Need" more than a Prius PHV.

Of course gas MPG alone is not driving vehicles sales or F150's would not be at the top. People have multiple wants (space, hauling, etc) also enter the picture and often dominate MPG or cost considerations.