Toyota Fuel Cell To Compete With Tesla?

I would love to see it.
I don't see them overcoming the convenience of charging at home, but the more cars taking advantage of the smooth and quiet electric drive train the better!

 

Compete only in Southern Ca, and this is higher pricing than their initial $50k announcement.

 

Wasn't the CA "Hydrogen Highway" a hot topic in the last decade? I didn't think hydrogen cells were chemically safe.

 

The fuel cells themselves are very safe, as I understand it.
Storing hydrogen is a bit trickier. It leaks very easily, and is highly corrosive.
There are a bunch of obstacles to overcome.
And then you also have the fact that EVs and PHEVs are very convenient to fuel up, where stopping for gas/hydrogen in the middle of going somewhere is not.

 

That article has Tesla's take on fuel cell. Here is Toyota's calculation:

 

The real shame is that Toyota has made an electric car, the current Rav4 EV, and it's great. Instead of advertising and actually trying to make people aware of it and trying to sell the car they are making only 2600 to comply with California law. They are pulling the plug on EVs and moving on to hydrogen. Some analyses find that EVs are much more efficient than hydrogen powered cars:


Hydrogen versus plug-in electric vehicles


Besides a lack of fueling stations (whereas we can all plug in our cars at home) the problem is where does the hydrogen come from? Two main sources: fossil fuels or water. If it comes from fossil fuels than there is no possibility of removing yourself from dependence on oil (whereas the EV can be sourced from renewables and hopefully a greater and greater % of our electricity is sourced from alternative energy as time goes by). Hydrogen can also be made from water but that is a very energy intensive process.

 

Majority of hydrogen produced today is from natural gas and it is pretty efficient (see Toyota calculation above). US has plenty of it and our previous Secretary of Energy (Steven Chu) change his stance on hydrogen. He was against it in the beginning and changed his mind and decided not to run for second term.

 

The current Rav4 has a drive train that is designed and made by Tesla.

 

Regardless of where the hydrogen comes from, the big hurdle is shipping it. Pipeline is the most efficient, but its nature means higher price to install and maintain than natural gas lines. Trucking it becomes cost prohibitive at long distances. The fueling stations also cost more than a gasoline one.

Then there other hydrogen storage systems under development that would make any compressed gas or liquidfied hydrogen infrastructure obsolete.

If Toyota truly believes hydrogen gas fuel cells are the future, they should build their own refueling structure like Tesla is doing with the superchargers and swap stations.

 

Here is the article that article was based on, if anyone wants the full one
Toyota Seeks Prius-Like Success With 2015 Fuel-Cell Model - Bloomberg

The key changes from the previous Toyota anouncemens on this.

First early on is a counter to the hype

Next Toyota is backing away from optimistic projections

We should know in 2 years answers to these questions. The promises are at least 10 years old.

I would think making plug-in hybrids for today would be a lower risk strategy for toyota. They seem to put some anti-battery tech spin on each of these fool cell releases, that may hurt them in that. It is not that batteries are not ready, they are,. They are expensive, but not nearly as expensive as fuel cells and fueling infrastructure.

1) Fuel cells are Too expensive for today, and the fuel tanks are big and bulky.

With no refueling outside of small geographical areas, I can't see them selling nearly as well as bevs whoise batteries have been proven and should have lower tco.

 

It's not like natural gas is the only way, or the most efficient way, to generate electricity. Toyota's efficiency chart seems to be incomplete.

I suspect continued fuel cell development has more to do with government grants and mandates than it has to do with sustainable transportation.

 

Maybe Toyota's chart applies to Japan.
Current natural gas power is more efficient than presented.

 

I guess that an hydrogen tank fuel up will cost a lot more than the price to charge an EV

 

Yes I know. I'm driving one. Blast to drive!!

 

If I was a betting man, I would place my bet on the 3rd gen Tesla that is looking like $30k, 200 mile range, and probably more feature rich than the Toyota FCV model will be.

 

39% for NG->electricity is pessimistic.

Today's best combined-cycle NG plants can do close to 60%.....and if you add cogeneration / CHP, you could get upwards of 80%.

Either way, we would have to capture CO2 from the NG power plant or the NG->H2 production facility, if we want to be environmentally friendly about it.

 

I'll keep an eye out for ya. If you get a honk and wave from a white Volt it's me. I live in Woodland.

 

I'd choose an all-electric over hydrogen, and a Tesla over a Toyota, so I'd say there's no way I'll be buying a Toyota FCV, regardless of price.