VW To Be The Biggest Electric Car Maker...

Ok.
Good to know (I had hought NEDC mpg accounted for that )

 

One point about VW & EV's that I don't think anyone has brought up is that VW already has a larger brand-name recognition (or 'mindshare') in the EU and fast-growing markets like China.

Toyota, GM and VW all have the potential to hit 10 million units this year:
VW, Toyota, GM neck and neck in race for world auto leadership | Business News | DW.DE | 26.07.2013

So, correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't a lot of their effort be in convincing people already in the VW family to go EV? (Kind of like Toyota will have to convince us to go FCV )

And also, wouldn't the main components of EV's (motors, batteries) be commoditized by then? Won't VW benefit from the LEAFs and Teslas of the world going first by having lower component costs when (if?) they finally enter the EV market full-steam?

I looked at the federal EV tax credit and determined that any given automaker would actually benefit from holding off on producing EV's until the credit hit an "inversion point".

By this, I mean that battery costs have been, still are, and will continue -for the next few years- to drop faster than inflation is increasing.
In other words, the nominal value of the credit is the same, but its 'real' value is increasing every year, and looks to do so until about 2015-2018 possibly as late as 2020.
At some point, it seems to be automakers would simply be leaving money on the table, so to speak. So the tax credit itself (not to mention CAFE) is itself a reason to become a large EV maker.

 

J.D.Powers' rankings are based on a survey of owners while Warranty Direct rankings reflect claims actually paid out by the extended-warranty firm. Toyota of course ranks well be both surveys, but the relatively high rankings of Chevrolet (Opel?) and Fiat in the Warranty Direct ranking are intriguing, at least to me.

 

Also, a lot of ppl mentioned VW's mechanical problems and reliability issues. I think a lot of that has to do with them getting caught flat-footed when gas prices started to rise and hybrids took off.

VW simply doubled down on diesel tech, but that meant adding DPF, urea tanks, etc. all of which increased complexity of a diesel engine which was already complex.

Assuming motors, batteries, etc. are commoditized, I don't see why VW would be any less unreliable than any other EV (in fact, because EV's are simpler, this might help with reliability).

In other words if, say, a Ford Focus had 'electric gremlins' then I suppose it would be reasonable to assume a Focus EV would too........but that is independent of the drivetrain.

Ditto for a Golf--->Golf PHEV.

I don't think VW has to master any new technology here, they simply have to use existing tech, but make it work reliably. The battery would come from an independent supplier.

What if VW's main challenge is not engineering, but marketing (as in convincing the diesel crowd to go EV)?

 

IMHO vw will be about successful at that as toyota, which means not very.

Not tesla as its using 1850 cells, Mercedes benefits from that. VW could change to buying battery packs from tesla though and get that economy of scale and experience.

It should get the natural drop in heat pumps, and other things helpful to evs. But then you get to the point of the golf phev competing with the volt, and the up ev competing with the smart ed, and vw loses on both those cars. I can do well on other cars in the future though.

IMHO toyota benefited the most from the hybrid tax credit. Tesla is benefiting the most from the plug-in credit. Ford and Toyota may do ok as fast followers. VW is far behind, and credits may expire before they go into the market.

GM and Tesla look poised to make money without the credit. I don't know about those other guys. VW is right to be investing in electrification, but they are late to the party. That means we won't probably see their good designs until 2018. Until then they are playing catch up. They have lots of cash and good engineering, but they have a lot of ground to cover. Mercedes is outsourcing to tesla, which isn't a bad strategy, especially since they own almost 5% of tesla. BMW has been playing for 40 years with plug-ins and could get it right. VW could get some good stuff in the future. 2020 looks like an exciting time for plug-ins. By then battery prices should have dropped, and oil prices gone up.

 

WOW! Fiat is the most reliable Euro car and Skoda is more reliable than VW. Who would have thought?

 

It is my understanding that each make has no time limit to the Fed EV tax credits.
(Clock starts ticking after 200,000 plug-ins have already been put on the road.)

Mercedes and Toyota are smart to partner with Tesla.....hedging their bets.

If Tesla plays its cards right, they could end up being to the EV industry what Intel is to PC's.
Intel Inside Tagline Gives Way to “Tesla Inside”

They have al the right parts of the puzzle in place:

- Nationwide supercharger network
- Sleek, high-power connector
- Standard chargers for cars, stations
- (Nationwide soon?) battery swap stations
- Common Li-Ion cell tech


Tesla could very well set the standard w./ regard to the battery dimensions of the swappable battery by being first-mover.....something that ostensibly has been holding back that approach.

VW still has hope. IMHO, it is the 'diesel mentality' of their customers that is the main thing that will hold them back, not the EV tech.

Oh, well.......... I look forward to them going down with the ship (GM anyone?) and we can sit back and say "Told you so"

 

As the Wall Street Journal points out, VW stated back in 2010 that the electric vehicle ambitions of Nissan and Renault were “sheer lunacy.”
Well, it now finally seems that VW is ready to join the “lunacy.” ‘Bout time.

LOL. Serves them right if they fail! (Wasn't it the Audi CEO who said the Volt was "a car for idiots")?

 

When Do Electric-Car Tax Credits Expire?

Once the first manufacturer hits 200,000 then the credits quickly expire.

 

They only expire for that manufacturer. From the IRS page linked in the article,"The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).
Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period."

It works the same way the hybrid credit did.

Back to VW and EVs, they aren't completely new to the EV game. People are forgetting about the Audi E-trons. There was a test of near 20 cars each for the A1 serial plug in hybrid and the A3 BEV, which shares the platform with the Golf. The A2 E-tron PHV goes on sale next year. VW is starting late in regards to production, but they aren't starting from scratch.

 

Toyota CEO Jim Lentz; http://www.cnbc.com/id/101064011

 

I don't know what that $35 bn means, but toyota motors market cap comes up at $202B, I have to believe the bulk of that is Toyota.

vw group's market cap is $66.9 B, much lower reflecting the poor market in europe.