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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Oct 4, 2013.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Another awesome effort by Jeff Cobb and team. I'm just assembling their great data into a quarterly review:
    Column 1
    0 [tr][th]model[th]Sep_13[th]Aug_13[th]Jul_13[th]Jun_13
    1 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius Liftback[td2]9033[td2]16157[td2]15252[td2]14066
    2 [tr][td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] -
    3 [tr][td2]Jetta Diesel[td2]3716[td2]5876[td2]4821[td2]3940
    4 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius C[td2]3283[td2]5478[td2]3797[td2]3442
    5 [tr][td2]Toyota Camry Hybrid[td2]3069[td2]4729[td2]4193[td2]3878
    6 [tr][td2]Passat Diesel[td2]2784[td2]4470[td2]3997[td2]3405
    7 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius V[td2]2422[td2]3932[td2]3428[td2]2987
    8 [tr][td2]Ford Fusion Hybrid[td2]2265[td2]3694[td2]2914[td2]3057
    9 [tr][td2]Sonata[td2]2102[td2]2303[td2]2200[td2]2129
    10 [tr][td2]Nissan Leaf[td2]1953[td2]2420[td2]1864[td2]2225
    11 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Volt[td2]1766[td2]3351[td2]1788[td2]2698
    12 [tr][td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] -
    13 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Hybrid[td2]1424[td2]2411[td2]2267[td2]2889
    14 [tr][td2]Kia Optima Hybrid[td2]1272[td2]1601[td2]1241[td2]1100
    15 [tr][td2]ES Hybrid[td2]1223[td2]1600[td2]1324[td2]1239
    16 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius Plug In[td2]1152[td2]1791[td2]817[td2]584
    17 [tr][td2]Avalon Hybrid[td2]1104[td2]1467[td2]1139[td2]1394
    18 [tr][td2]Tesla Model S*[td2]1100[td2]1700[td2]1550[td2]1800
    19 [tr][td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] -
    20 [tr][td2]BMW X5 Diesel[td2]939[td2]488[td2]468[td2]544
    21 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid[td2]887[td2]712[td2]417[td2]438
    22 [tr][td2]Malibu Hybrid[td2]858[td2]1582[td2]1338[td2]1651
    23 [tr][td2]RX 400 / 450 h[td2]815[td2]1116[td2]962[td2]900
    24 [tr][td2]Lexus CT200h[td2]798[td2]1784[td2]1306[td2]1513
    25 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Energi[td2]758[td2]621[td2]433[td2]455
    26 [tr][td2]Fusion Energi[td2]750[td2]600[td2]407[td2]390
    27 [tr][td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] - [td2] -
    28 [tr][td2]MKZ[td2]619[td2]791[td2]646[td2]768
    29 [tr][td2]Golf Diesel[td2]528[td2]803[td2]709[td2]698
    30 [tr][td2]Cruze Diesel[td2]479[td2]430[td2]347[td2]188
    31 [tr][td2]Q5 Diesel[td2]474[td2]490[td2]0[td2]0
    32 [tr][td2]GL-Class Diesel[td2]467[td2]692[td2]185[td2]301
    33 [tr][td2]Cayenne Diesel[td2]447[td2]555[td2]478[td2]560
    34 [tr][td2]Q7 Diesel[td2]424[td2]379[td2]319[td2]310
    35 [tr][td2]Lacrosse Hybrid[td2]423[td2]803[td2]530[td2]619
    36 [tr][td2]3-Series Diesel[td2]421[td2][td2][td2]
    37 [tr][td2]Honda Civic Hybrid[td2]402[td2]697[td2]578[td2]568
    38 [tr][td2]GLK Class Diesel[td2]346[td2]359[td2]344[td2]500
    39 [tr][td2]ML Class Diesel[td2]337[td2]432[td2]265[td2]480
    40 [tr][td2]Highlander Hybrid[td2]325[td2]440[td2]410[td2]550
    41 [tr][td2]Honda Insight[td2]299[td2]438[td2]420[td2]384
    42 [tr][td2]Beetle Diesel[td2]266[td2]372[td2]348[td2]278
    43 [tr][td2]Touareg Diesel[td2]265[td2]366[td2]360[td2]332
    44 [tr][td2]Honda CR-Z[td2]264[td2]483[td2]384[td2]393
    45 [tr][td2]A6 Diesel[td2]216[td2]162[td2]99[td2]0
    46 [tr][td2]Regal Hybrid[td2]185[td2]214[td2]183[td2]227
    47 [tr][td2]E-Class Diesel[td2]182[td2]32[td2]47[td2]98
    48 [tr][td2]Toyota RAV4 EV[td2]167[td2]231[td2]109[td2]44
    49 [tr][td2]forTwo EV[td2]137[td2]182[td2]58[td2]53
    50 [tr][td2]Ford Focus EV[td2]110[td2]175[td2]150[td2]177
    51 [tr][td2]ILX Hybrid[td2]108[td2]125[td2]110[td2]163
    52 [tr][td2]Honda Civic CNG[td2]105[td2]190[td2]190[td2]274
    53 [tr][td2]5-Series Diesel[td2]101[td2][td2][td2]
    54 [tr][td2]Spark[td2]78[td2]102[td2]103[td2]27
    55 [tr][td2]A7 Diesel[td2]73[td2]52[td2]46[td2]0
    56 [tr][td2]Audi Q5 Hybrid[td2]73[td2]73[td2]47[td2]83
    57 [tr][td2]Cayenne Hybrid[td2]67[td2]43[td2]39[td2]62
    58 [tr][td2]Accord Plug In[td2]51[td2]44[td2]54[td2]42
    59 [tr][td2]500E[td2]50[td2]50[td2]0[td2]0
    60 [tr][td2]Fit EV[td2]35[td2]66[td2]63[td2]208
    61 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih)[td2]33[td2]39[td2]44[td2]28
    62 [tr][td2]M Hybrid[td2]33[td2]44[td2]33[td2]47
    63 [tr][td2]Lexus GS 450h[td2]31[td2]69[td2]63[td2]55
    64 [tr][td2]S-Class Diesel[td2]31[td2]40[td2]36[td2]35
    65 [tr][td2]E400H[td2]27[td2]29[td2]26[td2]23
    66 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih)[td2]25[td2]55[td2]84[td2]104
    67 [tr][td2]i[td2]20[td2]30[td2]46[td2]39
    68 [tr][td2]GMC Yukon Hybrid[td2]17[td2]33[td2]18[td2]40
    69 [tr][td2]Cadillac Escalade Hybrid[td2]14[td2]21[td2]19[td2]35
    70 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid[td2]14[td2]29[td2]21[td2]45
    71 [tr][td2]A3 Diesel[td2]7[td2]3[td2]0[td2]0
    72 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid[td2]4[td2]10[td2]6[td2]9
    73 [tr][td2]LS 600h[td2]3[td2]5[td2]6[td2]10
    74 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid[td2]3[td2]7[td2]3[td2]12
    75 [tr][td2]GMC Sierra Hybrid[td2]2[td2]3[td2]4[td2]4
    76 [tr][td2]Porsche Panamera S Hybrid[td2]2[td2][td2][td2]
    77 [tr][td2]7-Series ActiveHybrid[td2]1[td2]1[td2]0[td2]0
    78 [tr][td2]R-Class Diesel[td2]1[td2]1[td2]0[td2]0
    79 [tr][td2]S400HV Hybrid[td2]0[td2]2[td2]8[td2]5
    Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.com (well worth reading!)

    Looks like this market got nuked but less bad:
    • BMW X5 Diesel
    • Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid
    • Ford C-Max Energi
    • Fusion Energi
    • Cruze Diesel
    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Oct 4, 2013
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    thank you bob, and these ev sales are the reason toyota is not interested at this time.
     
    #2 bisco, Oct 4, 2013
  3. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Good thing Toyota didn't take that attitude when hybrids were in their first few years.
     
    #3 Zythryn, Oct 4, 2013
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    they correctly saw that hybrids were the future. will they be correct about ev's?
     
    #4 bisco, Oct 4, 2013
  5. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Well, EVs are selling more over their first 35 months than hybrids did.
    After having the joy of driving an electric drive train I can't ever see going back. I hope Toyota gets on board, but we will see.
     
    #5 Zythryn, Oct 4, 2013
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Many times looking at graphs converts tables of numbers into patterns we can relate:
    [​IMG]
    The elephant in the room is still the Prius hatchback, still over 2x the second place, a diesel, but it has been on a diet. Furthermore, the Prius c is causing Consumer Reports to grumble about their stupid readers . . . (what readers?)

    [​IMG]
    Looking at this chart, the one to envy is Sonata because of the steady sales. If I were in marketing, I would look hard at how the Sonata managed a steady, increasing rate. How'd they do that?

    Bob Wilson
     
    #6 bwilson4web, Oct 4, 2013
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Or did they just not experience the spike like the others. I believe most of them had incentives or other promotions that could have shifted Sept. sales to Aug.

    Then there's this: DETROIT: Ahead of the Bell: September auto sales - Business Breaking News - MiamiHerald.com
    "Labor Day weekend is typically strong for U.S. auto sales, and this year was no exception. But because the holiday came early, the auto industry counted all of that weekend's sales in its August tallies. That means September's sales, coming out Tuesday, will be missing the usual holiday boost."

    Did the Sonata hybrid just not do well during the holiday sales, or could Hyundai have tallied the Labor day sales into Sept instead of August.
     
    #7 Trollbait, Oct 4, 2013
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    One late thought, I've seen more effective Prius ads this past week than I ever remember seeing before:
    • dropped the 'fantasy' crap (sorry, but I don't need people in costumes and too much make-up!)
    • dropped the 'musical' crap (I don't go to a dance theater to buy a car!)
    • dropped the 'crowd' crap (it isn't bodies but ideas and a mob does not sell!)
    The Camry hybrid in the car amusement park is memorable BECAUSE it is a sedan with four people comfortably driving in what could also be a vehicle test track. The amusement park works because unlike a test track, you can actually see the 'hill climb.' I would like to see the amusement park developed a little more with fun stuff that shows off:
    • traction control on something slippery
    • hill hold
    What I want to see are Prius commercials:
    • At the pump
    • At the hardware store
    • Prius and a family
      • Prius c - the young professionals going to their jobs and dating
      • Prius hatch - young couple with a baby carrier
      • Prius v - the soccer Mom with rascals and groceries
      • Prius plug-in - the supervisor, manager who plugs-in to his named parking spot
    Bob Wilson
     
    #8 bwilson4web, Oct 5, 2013
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  9. engerysaver

    engerysaver Real Senior Member

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    I agree with you Bob!! Sometimes I wonder if Toyota does these ads on purpose; to help out their competitors to get out the message about hybrids. The market is out there ..... Toyota could sell lots more vehicles; if their ads were better.
     
    #9 engerysaver, Oct 5, 2013
  10. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    In the VW TDI commercials, they emphasise that the car keeps going on and on with a tank of fuel and also show the torque available, all with a little bit of humor injected. Toyota shows a kumbaya hug. When I drove TDIs, my car was never called a vagina on wheels. Maybe Toyota could try projecting a more different image for hybrids. ;)
     
    #10 El Dobro, Oct 5, 2013
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    couldn't agree with you more. i just believe toy's decision is well thought out. that being said, if they came out with an ev, i wouldn't be against it, i'm sure they would sell a few like everyone else. i just don't think they would be any better off in five years for doing so.
     
    #11 bisco, Oct 5, 2013
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    For some, the complaint isn't that aren't doing EVs, it's that they are pushing FCVs instead, and even dissing plug ins at the same time.
     
    #12 Trollbait, Oct 5, 2013
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  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Let me suggest:
    * * *
    Well, EVs are selling more over their first 35 months than hybrids did. This is understandable.

    After CARB killed the California EV market and GM crushed their EV1, the next year the first Honda Insights and NHW11 Prius showed up. Frustrated EV owners often became hybrid and Prius adopters so they would switch once EVs became available.

    After having the joy of driving an electric drive train I can't ever see going back. They have some nice characteristics: no warm-up; instant power, and; little noise and vibration. They also displace emissions back to the power source(s).

    I hope Toyota gets on board, but we will see. Toyota has been 'on board' for 12 years . . . they not crush their RAV-4 EVs.

    * * *

    The hubris of many EV adopters today, especially those that switched from the Prius, is thinking everyone is just like them . . . frustrated EV owners who had to settle for a Prius. I am not surprised as many can not understand that other people have different requirements.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Oct 5, 2013
  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Actually, Toyota was crushing the ones coming off fleet lease, and likely would have done so will the private leases, if they hadn't caved to public pressure.
    rav4 ev leases - Google Search
     
    #14 Trollbait, Oct 5, 2013
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I wouldn't call that caving to public pressure, it was not willfully doing something extremely stupid for pr. GM has looked back and realized they should have listened to customers and not crushed the ev1s.

    I expect in 2015 people at toyota will look back at their bashing EV strategy and realize that it was not helpful, just as gm has realized its fuel cell push, anti-ev policy was not helpful.
     
    #15 austingreen, Oct 5, 2013
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  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I've read the quotes:
    I do not see 'bashing EV strategy' in:
    Source: Toyota | 2013 Economic Club of Washington, D.C. - Takeshi Uchiyamada

    We can find diesel advocates more than willing to call these same words 'bashing diesel strategy'. If someone wants an EV regardless of EV limitations, buy one and get over it. A Toyota EV with today's technology will have the same performance limitations as any other EV. But fully fleshed out this claim says 'bashing EV strategy . . . and stop making hybrids because we want only EVs.' Sure it is faint but just as faint as this invention, 'bashing EV strategy'.

    I have read Takeshi Uchiyamada's comments and he no more bashes EVs any more than he bashes diesel technology. Toyota chooses to follow the Toyota path. If you want 'bashing,' John1701a has a long collection of real bashing and it is disappointing to see this talking point being raised. Let's not get fooled here folks.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #16 bwilson4web, Oct 5, 2013
  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ... as mentioned by Trollbait, I also heard the August car sales included Labor day weekend for many models. The implication is these monthly sales figures may have some spurious ups and downs unrelated to actual sales velocity. Of course also September people get busy with school etc.

    Re: Takeshi Uchiyamada, somebody probably should have advised him that EV is hyper-sensitive political issue in USA.
     
    #17 wjtracy, Oct 6, 2013
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Toyota actively shops placing anti-ev stories in the media. They have a long power point against them, but I don't want to place it here. You can search. I do not think these things help toyota, but they are really working with others that do not want EVs.
    Insight: Electric cars head toward another dead end| Reuters
    Taken as a one off comment that would not sound so bad, but they seem to be quite active. Here is what the buyer of a rav4 ev thinks.
    Will Toyota Cancel the RAV4 EV?

    since then toyota has taken some baby steps to sell the rav4 because, well the their attempt to change the carb requirements were rejected, but just this last week uchiyamda was at it again, and we have new slides in the power point on why the much higher plug-in sales don't really mean people want plug-ins more than they wanted hybrids back in the day.

    You can choose to belive toyota is not acting in this way. Hell Iran would like us to think they are the best friend to isreal and would never build a nuclear bomb, then again there are all those past statements to contend with.
     
    #18 austingreen, Oct 6, 2013
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    One of the reasons I prefer to look at the last four months is to give everyone a chance to test "common wisdom" about what causes any individual monthly change. You are not alone in this 'holiday hypothesis':
    Take the mid-point between August and September:
    [​IMG]
    Even if you 'split the difference' between August and September, Augember(?), it still shows a drop from July.

    Feel free to cut-and-paste the table into excel and look at the trend lines. But to my eyes, July looks like a local peak except for the lower volume cars.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #19 bwilson4web, Oct 6, 2013
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  20. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Actually, they did. Production was held to a limited volume for the entire first generation.

    Increasing supply to meet demand didn't happen until the second generation.

    That turned out to be a well played decision.
     
    #20 john1701a, Oct 6, 2013
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