Dashboard: Jun-Sep 2013

Is this Groundhog Day? Like a broken record (anyone remember those) we seem to have skipped back to the beginning of the never-ending circular argument again.

Toyota?

It's been pointed out many times that back in the 3rd year of Prius production in 2000 you could say the same thing about the Prius powertrain platform "one-size-fits-all" approach. There were people back then who said it wouldn't work for larger vehicles. And where was the diversity -- only one Prius model?!

It wasn't until Toyota introduced the 2005 Highlander that they had a 2nd vehicle line using the same basic hybrid system.

The Voltec powertrain architecture is specialized to provide an EREV hybrid driving experience (91% customer satisfaction...) around the improving energy density and cost reduction of automotive battery technology for plugins. It's basic battery-forward design can easily be adapted into a variety of plugin vehicles over the next 10-20 years. It is not, and was never intended to be, a non-plugin non-EREV hybrid design.

I'm not sure that's really true. There are all sorts of business model trade-offs and plenty of other car makers to supply a dizzying array of different vehicle models and designs.

GM could continue to ignore the "traditional" non-plug hybrid passenger car market and balance their CAFE numbers by selling Voltec and battery-only cars. You can make a good case for them focusing their efforts rather than spreading their engineering teams too thinly by developing a one-mode hybrid powertrain.

Ultimately, I suspect they will develop a one-mode transaxle (similar to HSD) for passenger cars but maybe not for another few years.

 

Yup. Same old pretending GM had neither the knowledge nor the experience already.

And since we've been through this before, you know the one-size-fits-all remark is in reference to GM not offering Volt with a smaller battery or without a plug.

 

And Toyota doesn't offer the PPI with a larger battery pack, or offer a plug with the v or c. These are first generation models. Expecting them to be perfect out the gate is short sighted.

I did expect Toyota to be a little more proactive within the segment. They are the big dog with all the hybrid experience after all. Their competitors aren't forcing potential customers to travel to another state for a test drive. Some of them have been on the market shorter.

 

Toyota offers a choice for Prius. No amount of spin will change that.

 

Let me add that HSD is offered in the Lexus models, too. No, they don't offer more range but somebody with money obviously wants the HSD in their favorite Lexus models. I agree with John, if anything the Volt did not hit its target. It has a great market, showing owners that can go for months without going to a gas station. But, I will bet they are charging it overnight, every night.
As the owner of three hybrids, I believe in the HSD system. It works for me, my wife and my daughter. We don't have to worry about "plugging it in" and we are impressed with our fuel economy. Would I buy a total electric? Sure, when they can go three hundred miles on a single charge and cost $30K or less. It just bugs me that the Volt has the biggest battery of them all and can go only forty miles on a single charge. It should be eighty to one hundred miles or more.
Right now, the Plug-in Prius is a great attempt to a niche filler, a go before a fully electric vehicle. The Volt was designed by Generic Motors as an extended range electric vehicle. Isn't that the definition of a regular Prius???

 

Highlander & Camry were the variants that followed... both were middle-market vehicles... in a format quite different from Prius. One was a SUV with AWD and the other a top-selling family sedan.

It's 3 years later. Rather than the next rollout being a variation of Volt configured to reach the masses, we get Cadillac ELR. What the heck?

 

It looks like they (GM) will give us a Cadillac that is suppose to be bigger and better than the Volt( that also means fewer miles on a tank or a charge). We the American Public still own a slice of GM, so I have to ask where is the advance planning and marketing division? I would guess that they got laid off sometime after the first wave in 2008. So from my view here in Indiana, I have seen so many GM facilities sold off, moved to Mexico or Singapore, or simply phased out.
The Japanese love Indiana, Subaru of Indiana Automotive in Lafayette, Honda Auto Assembly in Greensburg, Toyota Assembly in Princeton show me that we must be doing something right. GM truck assembles pickups and HD truck in Ft. Wayne. It would seem to me if the Volt was doing well, they would bring on a second assembly plant, either in the US or Canada. Instead they import the Spark EV.
As I have written in the past, GM will quit making the Volt about the time they get all of the bugs out of it. The difference is that Toyota will only advance when something is better. The advances in power train technology has been quite impressive. The Plug In Prius, while available in some markets, has not made a showing here. We must be on the last to get this one, as we know from the Prius C, they had one to show us but none available.
Should all Prii be pluggable? No, that is why there are different models available. Do we really need an AWD Prius?
Some folks in the Northeast that love their Subaru's might buy it. Here in the flat lands, with the exception of some ice on bridges and freezing rain, why do you really need it. How about a Prius Coupe or Convertible? It could be practical and still have fun.

 

Where did I pretend "GM had neither the knowledge nor the experience already."?

We have discussed this before in great detail. Like I mentioned earlier today, the Volt powertrain is specifically designed at a different technology/performance target than a HSD (GM one-mode) design. Obviously, GM knows how to design an HSD-like transaxle and has patents on how to do it. They chose not to to compete in the same exact product space as the HSD and Ford hybrid cars and instead aimed for a stronger EV-centered design that intrinsically requires a minimum battery output power of 100+ kW and with today's battery technology that means a battery with around 15 kWh.

Smaller batteries need an HSD-oriented blending design that has a less-EV centered driving experience. It makes no sense to use a smaller plugin battery with the Voltec-style transaxle. That would need a different transaxle and it wouldn't make sense to brand it as a Volt.

As you know, 3 years after the Prius began production in 1997 we had another 3 years with only modest tweaks for the US version of the 1st gen car in 2000. Then about 6 years after the first Prius we got the 2nd gen iconic liftback. Then another year or two beyond that until the Highlander came out. The Voltec design is just getting started.

 

A 2006 Highlander AWD hybrid was $40,000 in today's terms ($34,430 in 2006 dollars). That's $5,000 more than a Volt before any tax credits or state rebates.

That Highlander is $12,500 more expensive if you count the Volt's $7,500 federal tax credit. The 2-wheel drive version was $38,362 ($33,030 in 2006 dollars) making it about $11,000 more expensive than a Volt after credits.

I guess the Volt is now well under your middle-market pricing.

 

Now you're trying to draw similarity between an all-wheel-drive SUV and a compact car ?!?

They aren't even remotely in the same category... which was the point of my post.

 

So, does GM lose money on every Volt they sell?

 

The CEO said that was the case back in the spring, before the $5000 price reduction.

 

The price more than likely covers the materials and labor for the car. If you factor in the cost of the R&D, then it is losing money. However, the R&D money is already spent, and is a fixed amount. Not an ongoing cost like labor. Which means for every Volt, Ampera, and upcoming ELR sold, the amount of the R&D gets spread out over more cars, lowering its cost per car. Eventually, the R&D investment will be covered by sales.

Which is what the GM CEO meant when he said the Volt was losing money, and that the second generation will be profitable. The Prius wasn't profitable for Toyota until the second generation also.

The price reduction could covered by several things.
1) GM is just eating the loss until the second generation to keep the Volt's presence up with the lowered prices from the other plug ins.
2) GM is just forgoing the profit that would be accounted against the R&D investment.
3) Cost reduction in production or materials.

 

Check out the price of ELR. Many here forget the true cost of the big battery pack and redundant powertrain in EREV implementation (or an atempt to).

 

Disastified PiP owners appear to have driving condition not suitable. For example, acceleration onto a long big hill from a dead stop or 100 miles commute.

In addition to the driving conditions, the desire to run pure EV or seeing big MPG number display lead to disastification.

 

Not true, Toyota Estima was lauched in 2001 for JDM.

Toyota Previa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

"... used a single electric motor and a mechanical CVT in its transmission..."

Sounds like Honda's IMA. While it carried the HSD name, so does Toyota's FCEV, it isn't an expansion of their two motor, full hybrid system.

 

It is a Cadillac.
We aren't going to learn how much of the price covers the drivetrain, luxury extras, or just the name any time soon.

 

Yes, in fact, it was 4WD hybrid, a bit more complicated than that...

Estima Hybrid-Gleaming Example of Automotive Evolution

The clean and futuristic-looking Estima Hybrid gives users greater on-the-road freedom with its power-generating and other convenience-enhancing features. It also combines three key power-management technologies unprecedented on a production vehicle. These are: THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT*1), featuring a gasoline engine, CVT and electric motor for front-wheel power; E-Four, which regulates a rear-mounted, rear-wheel-propelling electric motor and coordinates electric power distribution to all four wheels; and ECB (Electronically Controlled Brake system), for efficient wheel-by-wheel brake control and optimum management of the vehicle's regenerative brake system.

 

Estima uses HSD, like all the other Toyota hybrids and has for years.

It started out as an assist type because Toyota was making an effort to offer choice right away. Crown (the Japanese version of Camry) started out that way too.