Dashboard: Aug-Nov 2013

That and the lack of product for us, ie low day supply of the plugins.

 

The best way to remove auto seasonality is to look at take rate. For hybrids it slipped to 2.91% in november from 3.47% in July. There are a number of factors that can be used to help explain the drop, but price of gasoline dropped greatly from june to november. Fuel costs seem to drive an additional seasonality factor for hybrids and plug ins.

The other factor is the strong growth of plug-ins. Perhaps we should not be looking at the hybrid take rate, but the hybrid + plug-in rate. When plug-ins are added in there has been much stronger growth of electrified cars than the general car market, and the us automarket has been quite robust this year.

 

It's finally over. The last share of stock has been sold. What a relief. No matter how times we pointed out the importance of delivering a mainstream hybrid, something to directly compete with high-volume traditional cars, the discussion would ultimately get spun into it somehow really being about GM's financial struggle. It never was. The problem remains. There still isn't a choice available for middle-market consumers.

We all see how the other automakers are targeting their own production, offering high-efficiency vehicles similar to and the same as existing inventory. Had GM also done that, while including Volt as a choice, the situation would be quite different. Instead, it's the one-size-fits-all approach. Why isn't the market as a whole addressed? How come is there continued refusal to acknowledge strong sales of traditional cars? Shouldn't that be a concern? When will something actually competitive be offered?

Needless to say, it's nice that the government ownership excuse is gone. Having that used as a distraction from the true problem got quite annoying. There's even time still available for something able to achieve business-sustaining profits to be delivered. After all, isn't that the point?

 

If you found that being used as a distraction so annoying... why distract from the topic with this off topic bit of information?

 

Calling it out to get back on topic is totally reasonable.

Why no answer to the question?

That is topic.

 

Toyota needs to ramp up the production of 2014 PiPs!

 

TOO LITTLE, TOO SLOWLY is very much on the topic of sales. The distraction was claiming purpose wasn't that.

Today's shake up at the top supports the situation too. Not having any profitable high-efficiency vehicle to offer middle-market and relying heavily on trucks instead is clear evidence of not having advanced forward. In fact, it's basically a reset to where GM was prior to the financial collapse.

Selling something competitive is required. Status quo is not enough.

How much longer must we wait?

 

John it is most transparent your little distraction. Since you obviously don't use it to apply equally to car makers. If you did you might get less flack. Say what you mean, and make it clear.
What I get from you is toyota's phv sales of 11,169 ytd and 1100 last month is great. Fantastic, incredible, but the volt sales of 20,702 ytd and 1920 last month is awful.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

When I commented that one problem for both in november was not getting enough cars to the dealer, you went off on an anti-gm rant. Give us a break. One problem is poor supply to the dealers as diane, a dealer has confirmed. Anouther problem with the prius phv sales was toyota set the price too high, something they seem to be correcting. Other problems are marketing and roll out. Toyota doesn't seem to really want to sell the car. It is my hope that they get behind the next generation.

Since we are talking hybrid and plug-in market, I don't think that the malibu versus the camry is really on topic, but yes you like going way off topic and I understand. When you get set right, you want to wander off, because you want to have a different conversation. Toyota also doesn't do well with trucks compared to ford, does that make any difference to the hybrid conversation? No it does not.

I hope toyota will bring a much better next generation prius phv. It does not appear to be competitive according to the numbers. I also want ford, gm, nissan, and tesla to bring out better vehicles in the next generation. You are right the status quo is not enough. 11 miles in range is not where the market is heading.

do you have a mouse in your pocket? I thought you were happy with your prius phv, and would rather shoot yourself in the leg than even test drive a gm product. Plug-ins are good enough to drive today, they simply can get better and grow more market share.

 

Sales is the topic. GM offers zero high-efficiency choices for the mainstream. Notice how that isn't the case for Toyota, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, VW, and Nissan?

We all see those numbers for hybrids from those other automakers.

Keep playing the game all you want. It won't change that reality.

 

Will the new GM CEO continue to champion the Volt? The real cost of it cannot sustain.

The investment in next gen Volt battery (Envia) didn't go as planned. Therefore the cost will not come down as planned. Interesting times ahead.

PiP is a really balanced plugin that is ultra efficient with either fuel in a practical package. The realistic approach should pay off. I think PiP sales will take off when it is available national wide and more in stock. Owner experiences are well documented here.

 

I really doubt she will repeat the mistake gm made with the ev1. I know you are rooting for failure, but the gm bleeding is in europe. Killing the volt would harm long term profitability. What real costs are you seeing? The car and its redesign are fairly self sustaining and an investment in gm's future.

I am not quite sure what you are saying here. Battery prices are still projected to decrease by about 7%/year, the same as before. I really doubt gm's $7M investment in envia makes much of a difference. The a123 bankrupcy is a little more damaging as they were using them for the spark ev. Still its important to keep things in perspective.
GM invests $7M in battery startup Envia Systems

Toyota has been investing heavily in fuel cell development and saying batteries are not ready for plug-ins. This may be one reason they haven't rolled out the prius phv to other states. If it is too sucessful then maybe all that marketing bs about fuel cells would look even worse. We are not even in the same ballpark as the investment in envia.

Which brings us back to topic. If toyota had created the volt, and rolled it out nation wide, I expect that would be selling at least 4000/month. As it is they rolled out the prius phv and tried to sell it like it really was better. They need to sell it for what it is, not pretend that it is what it is not. Then owner satisfaction would go up.

I agree with you completely that if toyota at least rolled the prius phv out to even 4 ot 5 more states, you know texas, florida, ohio (they have plants in 2 of those), illonois instead of playing carb politics it would help. Nation wide roll out would help even more but yes roling it out to montana and illonois wouldn't sell many cars. If toyta got dealers trained it would sell much better. Then when toyota brings out the gen II, it would have a better chance of really taking off.

 

I am rooting for a low emission, efficient practical mainstream car from GM. Not the showboat compact 4 seater rated 260 g/mi CO2 that gets associated / marketed / green washed as a zero emission EV. I wish they make a better Prius than Toyota. Ford came close with C-Max (mid size interior) but where is GM's offering? Has all the knowledge from the Precept of PNGV disappeared?

Do you know the real cost of a Volt? I don't but it is no way near $35k (much higher). Nor the replacement battery is $3k as it doesn't pass the smell test.

Why do you think Toyota was selling PiP for what it was not?

It is a plugin hybrid and always marketed as a plugin Prius. From my ownership experience, it is a damn good one. I can even say it is the best plugin car for me.



Regarding the upcoming fuel cell hybrid, it is all about well-to-wheel emission. The current electricity grid mix and lithium battery manufacturing+recycling emission limits the practical battery size compounded further when you have the cleanest 50 MPG engine.

It is very simple for plugin hybrid. 1) Emission from electricity production and propulsion system cannot exceed that of gasoline equivalent. 2) Battery size/weight cannot lower gas engine fuel economy (hybrid mode). Violate either one and you take a step back in the progress of lowering emission. I think you've figured it out that Volt violates both and by that, it takes two steps backward.

FCHV will be a few steps forward with projected 10% cleaner than a plugin. It has potential to be the best electric car with refueling speed of a gas car (best of both worlds).

 

I think we are way out in the weeds here now USB. Even when GM sold a rebadged corola (prism) built in the same plant as toyota, with the same materials and workers, they didn't sell as well. I severly doubt a gm prius would sell today, and we haven't heard any word that gm is even working on such a beast. Honda was the only company to attempt a better prius, and it they failed badly.

I don't think much good at all came out of PNGV, but certainly the volt is worlds ahead of the precept in terms of lower cost to manufacture, emissions, lower oil use, desirability. What do you want back very expensive exotic bodies? BMW has it in the i3. High poluting underpowered efficient diesel engines, epa had rules against that even back then. GM has a cruze diesel.

I really don't know, but what I do know is that the overblown estimates of cost per vehicle all included all the fixed costs and R&D. You cancel the program you eat all those costs anyway.

Lutz last year said that the battery pack, support structure, bms, and labor came to about $11K. I have no idea whether he was lying or not. The rest of the car is pretty proprietary, but yes, I would assume variable costs for the ice, body, etc to be less than $24K. I can't imagine gm is making or losing much per vehicle but say its about $2K (you decide on whether you think its profit or loss), multiplied by say 35,000 per year (elr, ampera, volt) that results in about $70 Million max profit or loss a year depending on where the real numbers sit. Given gm is going to take a hit of about $1B to reorganize europe including shuting down money losing chevrolet europe, and they lost $214 Million in europe just last quarter, the number for the volt is a very small profit or loss. If you ever are going to make a plug-in you don't do something stupid like killing the volt. We all know gm saved tens of millions shutting down the ev1 and probably lost billions in bad pr and lost oportunities. Killing the volt today would be even a bigger blunder.

The relatively poor own satisfaction surveys, where the phv falls bellow the prius liftback. Bad markes include turning on the engine too easily and short electrical range. That makes me think the dealers are claiming more of an ev experience, and exagerating fuel savings. Toyota needs to sell the stuff they have not pretend most miles will be gas free.

yeah well we can agree to disagree on the first part, and agree with the second.

I got to say, I and most people in california have debunked this one, but it doesn't really matter. The question is in 2015 is the fuel cell going to cell well enough that you keep bad mouthing plug-ins. I mean we are on track to sell almost a hundred thousand plug-ins this year, and have strong growth in each of the next two. In 2015 will they even sell 10,000 fcv? Who is going to buy the beast when you can only refuel it in a small area. Would you pay $20K more than a volt for a simailar toyota fuel cell, that can't be filled up at home, or outside a tiny geographic region. Why does toyota keep promoting that plug-ins are bad? It hurts prius phv sales, and sends an awful message to dealers.

So yes I believe that part of the reason toyota is number 5 in plug-in sales this year is because of promotion of its fuel cell vehicle at expense of rolling out the phv, and marketing to the substitution of electricity for oil, while still allowing the conienience of gas. Toyota seems to be saying in a lot of its press charm offenses, that electricity is dirty and inefficient, and batteries are heavy and expensive. Not good messaging if you actually want to sell plug in cars.
November 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com
Sales unit volume November. If it was dollar volume toyota would look even worse. They own the majority of the hybrid market, but don't seem to want to compete well in this market. I hope that changes.

 

I think you have the right idea but wrong timeline. The prius came out in 1997 for its domestic market, and was replaced in 2003, giving toyota a 6 year cycle. I think we are due for a new volt in 2016 on a new platform, not in 2014. The platform the current volt is on is quite heavy. The volt already has improved the traction battery, but more improvements take more time. The ice will definitely changed in the next generation.

The ELR is mainly an inexpensive way to drive marketing to cadilac showrooms, its not a volume seller.

I am not a minivvan person but there are likely good reasons that toyota does not bring it to the american market. The inexpensive root for a toyota minivan would likely to be to drop a modified camry hybrid system into the sienna. I know people have been asking for this for years, but have no insight to why they haven't done it yet. It may be cost.

 

GM had a vast amount of battery & motor experience by the time Volt was rolled out... EV1, Two-Mode, BAS. Toyota had none of that.

Again, they are not the same. And this time, you are the one bringing up old history.

 

Yes absolutely GM had a lot of experience with batteries and motors, and bought battery patents and sold them to texaco by the time the volt was rolled out. When the prius was rolled out, toyota used its experience with motors and panasonics experience with batteries from MITIs BEV program. So yes toyota had a lot of experience also.

Batteries in the first volt - LG Chems, were definitely better than the batteries in the prius. Technology advances, but the volt is much more dependant on those batteries. The Sanyo developed lithium battery tech in the prius phv is also excellent. Battery tech keeps advancing. Motor tech has also advanced but much more slowly. The big advantage today is electronic control systems are much better.

Actually I was responding to Bob's question and not talking about this. It is definitely out in the weeds. These old line auto companies like gm don't seem to be able to design fast, hence a 6 year cycle for the volt, as it was for the prius. If it was tesla they would have likely had a major change by now, but that has more of a silicon valley mentality. There is a great deal of 20 year old tech that could be used to improve the volt 2.0, if it is deployed well.

Back to the topic -
Plug-ins are the big growth in the electrified car sector, but hsd based small battery hybrids are the volume leaders. Say we get 50% yoy growth in plug-ins for the next 2 years from say around 95K this year. We should be at 215K in 2015. Plug-ins have averaged over 100% growth the last 2 years but now that they have become a real part of the market growth should slow. I would expect a new prius to help grow the regular hybrid market to maybe 600K-650K cars in 2015, and maybe 10,000 fcv. If you want to grow sales, the plug-in market is a place to invest.