Dashboard: Aug-Nov 2013

The goal of PNGV was an affordable family car. The Super Car standard set were very high (80 CAFE MPG $20,000 car). It was unattainable back then.

Prius c really is the PNGV Super Car. It come really close to CAFE MPG (84 MPG in Japanese cycle) and starts at $20k. It even seat 5 people and haul a bunch of stuffs with hatch design. It does not use any exotic materials.

Don't kill the Volt. Make a better plugin hybrid that is efficient, practical, affordable and low in emission.

 

yeah no. It was a 80mpg cafe midsize car by 2003, that would help american companies improve competitiveness. Critisms of the program include that affordability and indeed emissions were not really considered it was all about hitting the mpg goal. It also has been critised for exclusion of toyota, since this was really a governmental plan to help the us auto industry whether they liked it or not. Hence we get the expensive designs that were never designed to sell or make money, that used diesel engines that could not meet epa emissions standards at the time, let alone today. I would argue the program actually hurt american auto companies competitiveness, as instead of building more efficient cars to sell they wasted resources in a don quixote quest for 80mpg diesels.

Ford had requested easier and more acheivable but still agressive goals. Throw out that US only autocompanies crap and toyota mainly hit ford's sugessed targets with the gen II prius in 2003.

I have no idea why you would use the easy japanese cycle, or choose a small car not even mentioned in the program. These were supposed to be mid sized sedans. The prius c doesn't even beat the gen III prius on the tests, so look at the prius gen II as what the goals should have been. It's the exotic material and tech that made them super cars, and that really has been criticised as a reason for the programs failure. We can add the current camry and fusion hybrids, and prius phv and fusion energi as today's qualifiers to what pngv's goals should have been. The volt doesn't get included because it seats 4 not 5 adults, same size problem with the prius c. leaf wouldn't qualify because of limited range. When considering low oil use the plug-ins greatly exceed the original goals, and the hybrids, well these represent where the goals should have been to be achievable in 2003.

Well the volt is already efficient, practical, and low in emissions, so you have that today. It also has the highest consumer reports customer satisfaction short of a tesla. Definitely they can improve the value proposition as well as charge sustain efficiency in the next generation. The gen II may be as different as the prius was between gen I and gen II. I don't know.

 

260 g/mi emission for a compact is Honda Insight (44 MPG) level. Mid size Prius is cleaner at 222 g/mi. PiP is 210.

The real test come when the tax credit is gone. Can you sell it at below $30k, make a profit and mass produce enough to keep up with demand. Prius passed that test already after $1k to $3k tax credit that spanned a few years.

Volt has been on the market for 4 years with $7.5k tax credit. I hope gen2 can pass the test but it is highly unlikely.

A better plugin hybrid would blend like PiP or Energi. That keeps the cost down and maximize interior space. If Volt gen2 does not go that route, it will remain in the niche market.

 

comeon. If you really want low co2 you can buy a volt and solar or wind. You can't say if that is what you care about the volt is dirty. Most buyers don't really care about co2, they often care about oil use, or unhealthy emissions. Certainly if you aren't going to buy renewable and you are in a dirty state and you don't care enough to purchase renewables, then maybe you just don't care about your carbon footprint. you live in ny, right. Doesn't the volt get 190 g/mi there, better than the prius liftback. Aren't you going way off topic if you think the volt sells better than the prius phv because somehow its dirtier in a state you don't live in? This is a thread about sales.

When the tax credit is gone we will have new generations of cars. Yes that is the real question, when the market is much bigger, batteries are less expensive, and automakers will have improved the cars. The gen I prius did not pass your test if the volt doesn't.

That is the question, but before the prius phv and volt were launched did you think the volt would vastly outsell the prius phv in 2013? Or that Tesla S would be the poster boy for the best selling in terms of dollar sales of the plug-ins? I don't know how well the gen II volt, or blue star, or gen II prius phv will be. I know there is a lot of competition and rapid growth in the market. At least 2 companies will get it right. I think one will be telsa. I don't know which will be the other one, or if it will be multiple companies. I hope they all produce great next gen cars.

Batteries can go structurely in the floor. The ford transit connect, tesla S, Rav 4 EV, bmw i3, bmw i8, all go do this, but the volt was developed on an old ev1 t-shaped design, and the prius phv and ford energis simply put them where they would fit. I doubt 16kwh is a problem for a new designed space if tesla can do it with 85kwh. Tesla also argues against going the low cost route, but people expect to see value. Note honda promoted the new insight as a prius killer because it cost less. The lower cost didn't help it sell as people saw the more expensive prius as a better value. If batteries end up being $300/kwh, then a 16kwh battery will only cost $5K. Its not battery costs that will be the problem when tax credits go down.

 

Trailer would do the trick, even though toyota says you can't tow.

I don't think the hsd is really pick up truck ready, and ford/toyota broke off their joint venture. In 2020 the cafe rules give large incentives for hybrid pick ups. I don't think we will see them much before that, but we should be seeing something from at least ford and toyota in 2018.

 

I think I could get a group of about 20 smart people in austin together, and get a tacoma pick up hybrid prototyped with mainly toyota parts. A phv battery pack, plug, charger etc. A couple of highlander motors, the di atkinson version of the 2.5L engine. We probably would need a pankake motor to sit between the ice and transmission, some electronics, etc. Lots of programming, the metal would change, the transmission would get modified, but it would produce a fairly efficient 4wd taco. It wouldn't be hsd, and it might be expensive, but it would tow and haul better than the 4cyl tacoma now.

 

The topic is sales of high-efficiency vehicles for mainstream consumers, not just plug-in vehicles.

 

That's a bit misleading since my car was probably the 3rd car delivered in Northern California and it was delivered on Dec. 21 which is a few days less than 3 years ago.

The first Northern CA car was delivered in front of the media cameras one day before I got mine at the same dealership. The first Volt delivered in the US was a few days before that on the East Coast closer to the Detroit-area factory.

 

Really John, here is the full quote that you cut, which talks about sales of yes hybrids and plug-in sales. The topic was hybrid and plug-in sales in the United States, based on the dashboard report. Read the title of the thread.

You can claim that you are not changing the topic, but ofcourse that is simply untrue. You can claim the prius phv is mainstream and the better selling volt is not, but here you simply are making up your own flawed definition of mainstream, and ofcourse the topic is not mainstream or high efficiency. We are not talking abou the highest efficiency pick up truck and how much it sells compared to the top of the dashboard list. Pick up trucks are off topic, unless it as bob has used it, talking about future hybrid trucks.

 

That's the game. I'm not taking the bait.

Thanks for the quote.

 

Toyota only gives a tow rating to the Highlander and RX hybrids that have AWD. It is still zero for the FWD models.

My suspicion is that they don't want to risk any liability in the remote chance something bad happens while towing with a FWD HSD combined with the non-disable traction control. There was plenty of times when turning onto a street with the gen2 that the TC kicked in, causing a the car to pause. That could have resulted with an accident if anybody was less cautious or attentive in driving. A trailer reduces pressure on the front wheels and the TC becomes more likely to activate.

 

Camry HSD has been listed as 1,000 towing capacity.

 

Any official source for that? Toyota's official webpage doesn't list any tow rating, and the online Camry manual doesn't recommend it.

It appears that past generations of may have had a tow rating. At least for the non-hybrid. It has been posted that a rating was given for the Camry HV in Australia after pressure from Toyota AU. Trailer towing is expected there. Here the car companies want to upsell a crossover or truck to those looking to tow. The Jetta TDI wagon was once rated to tow a ton. Not any more going by the VW site. Volvo might be the last company to provide tow ratings for their cars in the US.

Found Toyota AU site. Toyota Camry - towing capacity
The hybrid is rated for 300kg.
The ICE is rated 500kg or 1200kg with trailer brakes. Which might be the Sonic/Aveo's rating. Overseas that is. Here it is zero.

 

So it becomes even more niche? Renewable electricity is 3% of all, the last time I checked.

Mass marketable, affordable, clean plugin requires balancing of many criteria. Toyota has done that with PiP but it was not well understood. Fortunately, owner data and ownership experience are revealing the results.

Many assumed that the more EV range, the cleaner, the better, more desirable. In some cases, it maybe true but not most of the cases.

 

It seems you are missing the argument. I'll not confuse it with correcting your number which is quite low. Lowering ghg is not high on the list of the reason people give to buy plug-ins. This was in the surveys in the US, but they were old. Here is anouther recent one.
Survey: UK Shows No Love For Plug-Ins – Respondents Say CO2 Emissions Aren’t Considered When Buying a New Vehicle

Here is the point
1) Most people that buy plug-ins don't really care if its the lowest in ghg. Marketing to that demographic that XYZ is 20% lower than ABC on the national grid is a losing proposition. This is especially true when XYZ is not sold nationally but primarily where only small differences in ghg are to XYZ. It just sounds confused. Most prospective buyers don't care at all. The ghg argument on the national grid is put out there by people that don't want plug-in sales. In most states even a volt will be 50% lower in emissions that your normal ice car. I think this cleanest on a national grid confusses toyota dealers, because if that's what you really are pushing, why would you ever buy a phv instead of a prius liftback. This is especially true when you use the false argument that plug-ins will cause more coal to be burnt.

2) For people that buy plug-ins, and have ghg as a heavy concern, heavy enough to spend money on it, they end up purchasing renewables. In california 39% of plug-in owners have installed solar. A high percentage in colorado and texas have picked wind. The net net is many plug-in owners have much lower ghg footprints than non-plug-in owners, and national grid has nothing to do with that.

3) Yes if nationally 40% of plug-in owners buy renewables, and only 0.7% of the market is plug-ins, then its a small niche - plug-in + renewable. But that doesn't mean selling it is a small niche. A much smaller percentage of non-plug-in owners consume renewables. Plug-ins went from less than 18K cars in 2011 to over 90K in 2013. That is over 100%/year. If in the next 10 years they only grow at 18% (one of the lower estimates) the plug-in market will be at 470,000/year. IMHO it will grow much faster than this. Even at a 7% improvement of batteries per year in 10 years they will have doubled in capacity.

I agree that most of the magazines and toyota dealers do a poor job explaning this.

I don't belive that that was the assumption by most. The hottest button issues appears to be in favor of plug-ins are reduced oil use, fun to drive, high technology. The biggest hurdles appear to be price and fear of fires. Now when we talk about price, its really price versus similar cars. If it were simply a dollar value the imev would do great, its what, $13K in california after tax credits. It's a ballance of price and what is in the car including range and performance. Imev does not do well at all, and that is why the lowest price idea is deeply flawed. Toyota was certainly correct in killing the EQ. That is why the most expensive non-exotic plug-in, the Tesla S, leads in dollar sales. It clearly apears as a good value versus say a bmw M5 and other cars in its class. How a plug-in is priced versus cars in their segment seems to be the issue. Toyota can sell a great many more prius phvs next year simply by a national roll out and better training of the dealers. They already did the price cut to be more competitive. They need to get the dealers educated and motivated to sell. Currently I don't think that is happening except a few cases like diane.

Survey: 42% of Drivers Would Be a Good Fit for Current Generation of Plug-in Cars | PluginCars.com

 

PG&E grid power in Northern California is 19% renewable and that doesn't include the large hydro power and nuclear sources that combine to supply over 50% if power with negligible CO2 emissions. It is required to ramp up on the next few years to over 30%.



Next year there will be a Green Option that will funds local 100% solar renewable for all of the power for consumers who choose that option.

PG and E's Proposed Green Option

I'm looking forward to signing up.