Toyota Sold 1 Million Hybrids in last 9 Months, 6M since 1997

Toyota Finally Venturing Into Lithium-Ion Batteries, In a Big Way! - The Green Optimistic

All of you nimh fans that think progress has stopped in battery technology. Are you saying toyota is about to make 200,000 crappy failing batteries a year?


I read that interview. Lithium is a better chemistry for high current demands. What the toyota engineers appeared to say was it required a more complicated electronics. That would likely cost more the first couple of years. Obviuosly toyota is putting lithium in high current applications right now. Toyota has the bmw for small nimh down. I don't think there engineers are worse than those at other car companies that are working well with lithium. Its just a question of cost for the better technology. Every year the cost of lithium batteries go down as better technology hits, nimh appear to have stopped falling in price.

 

I'm not sure that the industry has solved the long term "dendrite" formation problem in Lithium Ion batteries. If they eventually fail, that's the reason. It's NOT a question of if. It's more a question of WHEN.

 

Was't that what people were saying about toyota's nimh batteries. That they would only last a few years. Some did die early and they were replaced under waranty. I doubt toyota's lithium batteries will be any different. You can't wait 16 years every time a technology comes out, to prove it will work. So far nimh have failed at a much higer rate than lithium, but there are a lot more nimh batteries out there. Toyota was burned a little by the fud before so they are being a little slow moving into lithium. They are now commited to lithium battery technology. In 10 years I'm sure all you naysayers will be believers.

 

I waited 10 years or more, before I got my first Prius. I can wait that long on the LiION batteries.

 

I did not miss your point. It was a reply to address you missing my point.

I don't consider the usage of a few ounce of platinum in the cat converter exotic. For its function, cost and the mass if it, it was justified and now found in all gas vehicles.

The same goes for the use of aluminum. The use in Prius was justified and in use in all Priuses.

Ditto for Prius usage of Lithium as the cost is not majority of the vehicle overall cost. When the battery pack cost half of the entire plugin hybrid, it becomes exotic, no matter the chemistry.

Oh boy, said the angry Lithium fanboy.

I own a vehicle with Lithium battery. I am not bias against it nor the NiMh. They both are better suited for different applications. NiMh works better in cold weather and provides more tolerance to the amp for regen brakes. Lithium has higher energy density.

If Toyota use more Lithium battery in future Priuses, great. That means the prices have fallen enough and they are ready to pump them out enough to meet demand.

Don't believe the Lithium bias fanboys.

The cost of each cells will be very low. It is the service that will be majority of the cost.

Prius NiMh pack has 168 cells. You can get a module with 6 cells for $30 from ebay. You can even get a brand new pack with all 168 cells for $1,941. That's without service and you have to return your old pack for recycling.

I do not know the actual cost or the nature of those quotes for Volt battery but it doesn't pass the smell test. Volt has a total of 4 modules in T-shape. The cost to replace 3 modules (12kWh) is $4,300? I highly doubt it.

 

Land Rover and Range Rover featured a lot more aluminum panels than just hood and hatch, AG.
Post WWII, long before '97

 

The pictures I've seen are of just 3 modules. The $4300 was just for them. You would still have to remove the pack and disassemble it in order to replace them.

Yeah, because when Land Rover started the scrap aluminum was cheaper than steel during the post war reconstruction. Then it was tradition for a bit. I don't know what the newest Land Rovers use, but Range Rovers went steel when they went monocoupe/unibody construction, and only returned to aluminum with a recent model.

 

Well then I would think you would agree with me that Toyota is not sucessful because it shies away from technology like lithium. It will eventually spread through th eline.

I don't understand your advantages for nimh though. There are a lot of different lithium chemistries. Some like that in the Rav 4 EV and Tesla S is less expensive than nimh but must be conditioned to the correct temperatures. This conditioning system is an added expense, but together the batteries and conditioning system are about the least expensive out there for large packs. Other like in the Sonata operate better in heat and cold than nimh. The pack toyota uses in the alpha has higher tollerance for higher power density, than nimh, but the one chosen for the prius phv has lower power density and was chosen for its energy density. There are lots of choices out there depending on the car.

When toyota first placed a nimh pack in the prius it was a risk. The prius itself is one of the few risky vehicles that toyota has put out there. We should not think that keeping everything the same now is the best way for sales, but choosing the best technology.

Yep, and they have anounced they will use more in future hybrids. The rumors are that some of the next gen prii will be lithium, some nimh, with the majority nimh.

I think gm is keeping their prices low, to keep insurance low. The supplier is probably eating some of the costs. Volume of replacements do to accidents should be very low so it will not cost gm or lg much money. All of the current volt are under waranty. The false amount of huge costs for the battery was obviously bogus for the volt.

Toyota obviously has much lower costs, but wants its dealers and itself to make a profit on replacement packs. You can also do it yourself and save money, but it is a different ball game. It has nothing to do with fanbois.

Yes but this was because of a shortage of steel.

When toyota started doing it, it was more expensive. They did not go out to build the lowest priced car, but one that got the best fuel economy as they could while still being big enough to seat 5. The aluminum helped this. It also added to cost. Honda on the insight gen I took more risks for fuel economy, but it wasn't as practicle of a car. The gen II insight cut costs the most, it cut things too much. I think it was a good decission by toyota.

Today the spread between aluminum and steel is smaller, and the cost of gas is larger today. Ford a few years ago followed toyota in aluminum, and made the hood of the F150 aluminum too. Same reason, good risk on toyota's part.

 

2015 Ford F-150 makes radical jump to aluminum body

 

Yes, its a huge risk, and I wonder how well it will work out.

Ford lost a lot of money with Jaguar and Land Rover.

I am more hopeful with the F-series. They appear to have market tested the concept, and are keeping the rogedness of the fully boxed steel frame. Ford's profit margin is so great here, that they can afford to cut into it if buyers aren't ready to pay the additional price for the aluminum parts. They seem to be predicting 3 more mpg if you buy the new smaller 2.7L turbo 6. A lighter base should be easier to eventually add hybrid parts to also.

 

Things like this makes me wonder if you own stocks in Lithium battery company or work for one.

I disagree with your statement. Last I checked, NiMh Prius alpha model outsold the Lithium model.

The Lithium model comes with the 3rd row but it is about $4k more. 3row used to hide lithium premium.

If Toyota were to use Lithium with Gen3 launch, the price would be $1-2k more. It won't fly, especially with the hybrid premium payback calculating customers. Maybe it wouldn't be able to win Intellichoice Best Value Award.

Nissan should buy 6 modules to make 24 kWh pack for $8,600 and sell Leaf for $12,000 then.

They tested NiMh with HV cycles to 180k miles. They also had calendar life data from RAV4 NiMh EV.

Prius was an advancement from BEV because it didnt have the disadvantages of BEV. Otherwise, automotive NiMh would not achieve mainstream success.

 

Why would that be. Lithium battery costs to ford are about $600/kwh for the batteries from panasonic in lithium hybrids, nimh are not free. Lithium in the Tesla S is less than $300/kwh. If the next gen prius were to use a 1.6 kwh lithium battery (35 kw in panasonics hybrid implementation), I belive toyota would pay less than $960 (toyota and panasonic are partners, so I would expect panasonic to give them a better price than ford). Now toyota may mark this up more than a nimh battery, but toyota was talking about nimh batteries costing $400/kwh a couple of years ago. Say that number is still good, for the 27kw prius battery, that is 1.3kwh it would be $520. I really expect panasonic lithium batteries to come down in price to less than nimh by 2020. Their price to ford is already lower. If you know better numbers please provide them. Unless that nimh is free, I doubt the price to the consumer with competition can be lower than lithium for very long.

Now as I said, the toyota whispers are the next gen prius will have both lithium and nimh batteries. Those whispers are that more will use nimh, and those are born out of capacity. Toyota is not building enough capacity to make even 1/3 of the prii lithium. If you look at the difference in price though, toyota's cost for building in Japan is much higher than the US, probably about $1200/car at today's energy, labor, and exchange rate. Hopefully the next generation prius will have some cars built in the US.

I guess you are correct, I do own stock in a lithium battery maker, tesa. Those that own toyota stock also own stock in lithium battery manufacturing and R&D.

I said cost. Don't you think the new rav 4 EV will keep range longer. Its starting with much better acceleartion and range.

I don't quite understand. The tech went lead acid, Nimh, lithium.

Certainly if you look at the first hybrids, phevs, and bevs they used lead acid batteries. Then each tech went further.

TRW did hybrid patents with lead acid way before they were practicle. BEVs were waiting for someone like tesla to invest enough, and to stop listening to the nay sayers. Toyota did the same for hybrids. Nothing magic about nimh. It just was the best thing out in 1995, when toyota started designing the prius.

 

I was not anti-NiMH for several reasons:
- Toyota was only using a narrow range so the battery would never go through a full cycle

- Toyota had driven the NiMH powered car >180,000

- I had NiMH experience in hobbies & it never butst into flames

- I never read any stories of NiMH-powered MP3 players or laptops or airplanes being destroyed/damaged

So I felt NiMH was good (and better) than the formal NiCad tech.

 

Lithium made a 3rd row possible.
The gen3 came out 5 years ago. Prices for batteries have changed since then. In part due to the federal incentives.

The cells GM uses may not be robust enough to be used without an active thermal management system.
Or GM is just willing to sell replacements at a lost for the few cases that wouldn't be covered by the warranty at this point. Most of those cases are likely just opting for the refurbished pack and case to save a grand. Which is likely less loss to GM than the new modules.

 

If I read that correctly, you are saying Lithium would cost about double that of NiMh.

I don't know the real cost as I don't work in automotive or battery industry. Retail prices are usually 2x the production cost. A brand new NiMh pack retail price is about $2,500 so your estimate of $520 is way off.

You are quoting these numbers regardless of they are for cell level, module level, or the entire pack with structural (protection for collision), cooling/heating, BMS, warranty, etc.

Also, you cannot assume $/kWh figure is the same for EV cells and HV cells. Since EV cells are tuned for energy density, they'll cost less per kWh.

Important NiMh patents are expiring this year. That will make it more attractive in price and more reason to include it in the mainstream models.

Another benefit of NiMh is that it emit less carbon to produce and recycle it. Lithium has more carbon debt to break even and more complex BMS.

Having said that, if Toyota offer Lithium in Gen4 Prius, that means they have worked out all the angles and felt Lithium is better overall. Until that happens, we cannot compare (with limited criteria) both techs and declare one as "obsolete tech" and the other "current tech".

Nothing magical about NiMh. The magic was how it was used in synergy with Atkinson engine in Prius in an elegant package.

 

Price can come down with government incentives, but not the COST. When the incentives go away, there is no guarantee the price will remain low. Attacking the cost would keep the price low.

LG Chem (Volt) battery factory in the US got government incentive/loan so the prices are low.

People don't realize how much incentives Volt has at many layer -- R&D (bailout), production (loans), and retail level (tax credit). I hope GM learn from Volt and build a better plugin hybrid that can reach mainstream.

 

No, what I said is lithium shoud be less than double today for toyota, but in the near future will cost less than a nimh hybrid car battery. We have the real numbers for lithium hybrid batteries for ford in 2013, because they have disclosed them. It costs them $960 for the panasonic cells, other parts of the battery, fixed cost attribution, and labor for a 1.6kwh, 35kw hybrid battery. Ford produced about 14,000 of these batteries last year. I assume because of the tight relationship with panasonic, and Toyota's stated goal to produce 200,000 of these batteries a year, that it would cost toyota less than ford. Ford has stated that buying nimh batteries from panasonic cost them more in 2012, than these lithium batteries did in 2013. Lithium batteries have been falling at about 7% per year, but most analyst estimates are that these batteries will cost less than $300/kwh in 2020. Nimh batteries on the other hand are not dropping in price.

I took a low estimate for the toyota nimh battery that is smaller in power and energy than the ford battery. Its possible that it costs them less, but likely it costs them more. You can't take a spare parts estimate and think its a cost. Toyota is tight lipped about its nimh prices.

No I was quoting ford's cost for a battery similar to one in the toyota alpha. As I said for a tesla battery prices are much lower. The cost for a tesla cell is very low.

I was not including bracing for collisions, bms, active cooling for either. It is likely control electronics are more for litium for a few years, but these follow moore's law. The expensive lithium I picked does not have active cooling in the toyota alpha, or the ford hybrids.

No assumption, I gave you the real prices for each.

Since panasonic with their aquisition of sanyo along with PEV has a monopoly for nimh car batteries, and nimh are no longer used in most electronics, the patents are now worthless. Toyota is the only customer, and Toyota owns a majority of PEV. Toyota is not going to buy nimh from a different battery company, and no one else wants them.

I have no idea if that is true or not. A hybrid battery can't be much of the carbon footprint of the car, no matter what those prius haters said way back when.

I think toyota has pretty much agreed that lithium is the future when anouncing their plans. As I said those 200,000 batteries a year are unlikely to go inthe prius liftback. They are releasing it next year, and don't have lithium battery capacity, and have stated they want to be vertically integrated. I also didn't say nimh was obsolete, I said it was not as good. I expect toyota will be using more lithium in the future, but when they designed the gen IV prius it appears they were using numbers that were more expensive than the current price.

Yep. It was the experimental better tech in 1995 when toyota designed the gen IV. It was a risk versus lead acid back them, but going with the evolving battery technolgy paid off. There really is not much competition for the prius. Toyota doesn't need to take many risks, and has been able to wait until lithium is cheaper. Toyota was responsable for driving down the price of nimh batteries when the car was new.