December 2013 - Dashboard Report

I suspect gas prices do play a large part.
I also agree that incentives are not playing a part in the last few year's trend as I don't believe hybrid incentives have been around for a number of years (although I certainly could be wrong, please correct me if I am).

Competition is also definitely taking a bite. But as a whole, the hybrid market is continuing to grow which is a very good thing

 

They are starting at a low level but non-prius family hybrids went in 2012 to 2013 from
210,689 to 273,485 or a 30% growth rate

If you include plug-ins then
251,331 to 357,999 or a 42% growth rate.

Toyota captured part of this growth by extending the camry hybrid platform to the lexus ES hybrid and avalon hybrid. They are moving production of the Lexus hybrid to the US, and should be able to cut prices when they do to get more market share. The other two winners in 2013 in terms of new volume were the fusion hybrid and c-max hybrid. For plug-ins add the tesla S and leaf. This product introductions go in chunks. In 2012 the extension of the prius family was the big growth motivator in the hybrid market.

 

Keep in mind many of the conventional's compbined MPGs are increasing. 2011 Accord sedan 4 cyl was 27 combined, but the 2013 w/ DI and CVT is 30 MPG combined. Nissan Altima is 31 MPG combined.

IMO, if Toyota makes the 4th Gen Prius liftback slightly smaller and goes for, say, 55 MPG combined, they might lose some market share. If they make it slightly larger (fraction of inch wider, etc...) and make it a 'nicer' car with, IDK, 52 MPG, I think it might sell better ....

Tough choices cause they are designing 4th Gen for the plugin Prius also. Probably why it takes 6 years to see a new Prius.

Seems most people just want a nice comfortable car at lower price that drives well and are willing to sacrifice a 15 to 25 MPGs to get it.

 

3rd Gen included plug-in support right from the start (notice only the battery-pack changed). 3rd Gen took 5.5 years for replacement. Fall of 2015 for the 4th would match that approach & schedule.

 

2010 Prius went on sale in May 2009. So, 2004 Prius must have been released for sale here November 2003.

 

The unofficial explanation from toyota egineers that seemed officially leaked to the press was they are waiting for a new platform that will reduce costs and weight.
Toyota's new platform to make its debut on 2015 Prius - Telegraph

Toyota wants TNGA platform to close gap with VW, Hyundai

Much of the hsd is also coming off patents, which means toyota is putting a large effort into redesigning for better efficiency and/or performance which can be protected with some of the new patents they have been issued.

I would think they would be redesigning it with some of the lessons they have learned from both the prius phv, and its competitors. I agree this would not likely have slowed the release.

 

"Introduced by Mitsuhisa Kato, member of the Toyota board

Kato also says that TNGA will help lower the centre of gravity of Toyota cars, which has been getting lower across the industry. He admits that Toyota cars had been lagging in this respect,with subsequent detrimental effects on handling.

“TNGA will set performance targets,” he says, citing a need to make Toyota cars “ride, turn, and stop” better."

Good to hear they will improve handling. I don't like what I feel when taking a turn in bit of a hurry in Prius: Feels like it has high center of gravity.

 

January 2014 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

 

To leave inter company squables please take a test drive of a Lexus IS - f and compare it to the prius. You will notice much less body roll, and much more direct feel from the steering. I understand you like the way the prius handles now but it is behind for many of us than many cars. Now the IS-f is much more expensive, heavier, and rear wheel drive, so you won't do everything, but it does show that some engineers in toyota get it.

We can hope that the next gen improves the suspension. That "might" impact real world mpg as the car will feel better going faster Now that the prius c is here though, with its shortage of hp, those that want the car to complain with speed can choose that. IIRC the main layout of the suspension was designed for the 1997 gen I, and although it is been modified for the added weight, it really has not changed much with improved technology since then. This may add a little cost, but is unlikely to increase weight.

Next with the new platform there will be approximately a 5% drop in weight according to the rumors. That along with better rubber compounds, and perhaps better steering motors and rack could be used for improved steering feel. This is unlikely to add any weight or cost. Perhaps allow a 16" or 17" wheel option with stickier tires that handle firmer without forcing people to upgrade to a 5 level of trim.

I expect both to be in the next generation platform, and for them to increase sales.

 

For those interested, January numbers are out (Ford included): January 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

 

Those are awful numbers. Hopefully its just the cold and snow. We should know when the febuary numbers come out. Take rate for hybrids dropped. Gas prices are low, and they may not test drive as well in the cold. I had expected plug-ins to grow around 50%, they were at least up compared to last january, but much less than I expected.

 

Almost deserves its own thread
Toyota Prius Grabs No. 1 Spot in California Vehicle Sales - Businessweek

Conversely, the fewest Prius were sold in Mississippi - where 1 of 5 vehicles sold is a land barge (Pickup) ... just saying ...
.

 

Yeah!! Accord Hybrid sales went up 23.2% while every other hybrid that sold 50 or greater in Jan went down from December.

Go Accord Hybrid !!!

So funny ... Autoguides comparo of 8 midsize sedans for '13/ '14 .... they ranked Camry in 7th place and Accord in 3rd.
Wouldn't be surprised if Accord outsells Camry if you take away all the Camry sales to rental fleets.

 

I think the most surprising is the Panamera.

 

call me intuitive ... and it just a wild guess here, but it sounds like you might just prefer honda over the camry ... just a skoshe ?

Isn't there another reason relating to the increased sales? ... unavailability of the plug in accord? I'm sure plug in accord sold more then 100 last year ... but for example purposes using round numbers - sales could double by simply selling an extra 100. The point being, low sales numbers make for larger / easier sales % increases. Honda and toyota seem to despise selling their own plugin vehicles no matter how great they are because both of them have hardon's to get hydrogen vehicles on the road. They don't want their pet hydrogen projects to fail due to their own (better) alternative mileage champs - which cost a whole lot less - besides having a much cheaper & well established infrastructure.
.

 

This is normal seasonality of hybrids. There is always a drop from December to January, plus there was the snow. The best way to look is January versus January last year. Still hybrids did badly reducing the take rate. The accord had no way to go but up, as there didn't seem to be availability in december, and it was better in January. I hope honda can get take rates as high as the camry and fussion. Only time will tell.

The camry never seems to rate highest by magazines for fun to drive, suspension, or other benchmarks. Reliability and price seem to keep it at the top of the charts though, and all these cars are very close. I have no idea car against car without fleet sales, but does it matter? We are talking about hybrids here, and camry hybrid will vastly outsell the accord hybrid. I like that honda is back in the game though.

 

Probably deserves it's own thread. Its great that many califonian's are buying more efficient cars. We should look at why, and one reason is long commutes in terms of minutes, with the #2 and #3 highest areas in the country (Washington DC is the worst), that is a bad reason. Good reasons seem to be awareness of the problem and desire to help. Then on the I'm not sure line of things, Californians pay some of the highest prices for gasoline in country, both because of taxes and mandates (it costs refiners more, and the state often does things to refiners out of spite, then they create shortages out of spite and to profit more). The lesson here might be higher oil taxes for the rest of the country, but please use the money to decrease other taxes, instead of wasting it on spiteful wars with oil companies.

I wouldn't worry too much about mississippi, they don't really use much of the nations gasoline, nor do they have heavy airpollution from cars. California is number 1 here, followed by Texas, Florida, NY, and Georgia. Add in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Louisiana, and Ohio, and you will find about half of transportation oil use, and include the most polluted cities from refining and air pollution from burning oil. All these states seem to have a lot of prii, but also a lot of low efficiency cars, SUVs, and trucks. In my travels annecdotally Texas and Louisiana could most easily increase mpg of the fleet, but that won't be likely to happen until 2020.