January 2014 - Dashboard Report

PiP did good with just sold in 15 states.

 

Updated to show the latest numbers, and also Jeff Cobb's data has been released too:
February 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

 

With less of a tax-credit incentive than the other plug-in hybrids...

$7,500 Chevrolet Volt
$4,007 C-Max Energi
$4,007 Ford Fusion Energi
$3,626 Honda Accord Plug-In
$2,500 Prius Plug-In

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Time is running against credits...

What will happen then?

 

We could find out soon. The Ways & Means committee for the House of Representatives is proposing an end to them in 2014, to help with budget shortcomings.

Toyota is in a far better position to deal with that than the other automakers...

 

Wow, hybrids as a whole under 3% share for a couple months or so. Prius liftback, Camry Hybrid, C-Max not doing so well. ... If it takes high gas prices to sell more hybrids, tells me they are not the best value in and of themselves. Toyota needs to do a better job with this 4th gen Prius. They've been out of the top 20 sedans in US this year. I say skip the weirdo futuristic interior or at least take it own a notch or two.

I think conventionals with their CVTs (Altima, Accord 4 cyl, Corolla, etc...) direct injection and more are closing some MPG gap against hybrids. Some very nice conventionals out now. Previous gen Accord was so, so, but this new one is ace, seats, interior, 30 MPG and lots of tech on base car: backup cam, BT, USB ...

I had a 2013 Nissan Altima (#1 in US last month) rental and running MPGs was pegged at 34.7 MPG. Small sample of actual (like 150 miles) came up 39.x MPG at the pump. CVT makes engine stay at lowest RPMs so engine comes off as lugging away from every stop.

but, Altima S, in $23k sticker range has 6-way power seat, push button entry on 3 doors, push button start. Nice convenience features.

Hoping to get hands on an Accord conventional rental and hopefully it blows the Altima away. We'll see.

 

Yes I didn't see that one coming. Unfortunately neither did US intellegence, which makes me quite mad. I still hope we step away from the brink. I think Putin has crimea, and there isn't much we can do to him, that doesn't hurt us more. I think if Russia goes further into Ukrane, it will turn out as bad for them, as going into Iraq has for the US. Certainly Clinton's comparison to Hitler isn't helpful. Here is one, Hillary wears pants, and Hitler wore pants. Oops that's meaningless , nothing about Crimea is like the sudatanland. I think Putin will do what he did in Georgia, and there isn't much that won't result in dead american's that we can do about it. That is if a new cold war doesn't push him into doing something more stupid and thugish.

I hope gas stays under $5/gallon, and that we put a bigger federal tax on it ;-) Things are uncertain now.

 

Well if you believe Tesla and Panasonic, the gigafactory will have battery costs under $200/kwh for tesla and probably close for anyone that buys from that factory. That should mean the DOEs plan worked. Remember toyota was talking about $1200/kwh, just in 2010.

Now these are different than the cells in the prius phv and ford energis, and require liquid conditioning. The other cells are likely to drop too. If they make it down to $300/kwh, the difference in cost between a 8 kwh and a 4 kwh phev will only be $1200, and it should provide over twice the range as part of that battery needs to be in reserve for hybrid use. The bulk of the extra cost for a phev has nothing to do with battery size. That along with California ending HOV stickers for phevs (other than the i3 BEVx) before tax credits run out. IF these costs don't drop, small batteried phevs even have less of a chance as you also need a liquid conditioning cost which won't be very different on size.

This means the next gen prius phv needs to have more range if its going to sell in the US, as its losing market share. This may simply be age of the design though as the volt is losing share also.
February 2014 Plug-In Sales Rise 30% - Ford's EVs Lead Charge Into Spring | Inside EVs
Toyota is the 5th best selling manufacturer of plug-ins in the US. They need to icrease sales of plug-ins, or they will not get the maximum 200,000 , as Nissan, GM, Tesla, and Ford look like they will be there first, and bmw and mercedes are enterning the market. I think toyota will put out a better gen IV plug-in to get more of these credits.

Simply having tesla raise $2B on a bond offer for a battery factory, means the tax credits have worked according to DOE to stimulate demand and manufacturing for plug-ins and batteries.

Plug-ins are the fastest growing segment of the US car market. It is a vastly different then when it was just volt versus leaf versus prius phv. When the credits expire I expect a pause in growth for plug-ins, and then for it to accelerate as these companies get improved redesigns out on the market. The most important design is the Tesla blue star due sometime between lat 2016 and 2018. The first major redesign is expected to be the prius phv, and toyota has more plug-in designs in engineering.