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Next voltec, what do you think of the new rumors

Discussion in 'Chevrolet Volt' started by austingreen, Jun 14, 2012.

  1. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    And people are waiting for a Toyota minivan hybrid here.

    Again I'll ask, what would GM, that had gone through a bankruptcy, gain from putting out a full hybrid like the Prius that it wouldn't gain from putting out the Volt?
    GM already made out handsomely: they snagged a healthy taxpayer bailout, which us taxpayers are on the hook for 10 - 12 billion.

    As I have mentioned numerous past posts the Volt was already successful to GM even before the 1st production model was released to the public.

    DBCassidy
     
  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The feds wanted to cancel the Volt with the restructuring. It didn't help GM there.

    This also bypasses the question what good a hybrid would do them.
     
  3. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    GM got what they wanted and more: $$$$ and built the Volt that the feds were against.

    The losers in all this: U.S. taxpayers.

    DBCassidy
     
  4. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    We've been asking for a Volt configured to match needs of mainstream buyers.

    Anything matching middle-market purchase properties would have done the trick.

    GM delivered what they wanted instead.
     
  5. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    John, you hit the nail right on the head!

    Thank you,

    DBCassidy
     
  6. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Reality Check.

    Whether people either never participated in discussions elsewhere or conveniently forgot the past makes no difference. Whatever the case or circumstances, the outcome is clear. We still don't have a vehicle with ordinary consumers from GM, which is the very thing Prius represents. It makes executives, supporters, and enthusiasts crazy. So, they do what they can to distract & delay.

    The rest of us see right through all that. We know that Two-Mode was intended to be the superior technology. We know that fell apart and ended up transforming into what is now Volt. That didn't go so well either. Both attempts stumbled technically for remarkably similar reasons. They were both expensive and not as efficient as hoped. True, they worked, but the goal of replacing traditional vehicles was severely hampered from that engineering barrier.

    If those alone were the only challenges, they could have struggled through. After all, incentives like tax-credits are offered to help overcome initial issues. Sadly, there was the business problem too. GM had sacrificed convenience & comfort for speed & power. That tradeoff doomed the rollout in late 2010. Not appealing to middle-market meant far fewer potential buyers would be available.

    Over 3 years later, that's quite obvious. They could handle making fun of Leaf for having limited range and Prius PHV for having such a small battery-pack in comparison. But when Ford came along offering two hybrids with plugs that featured larger packs, things went from ugly to threatening. The reactions now are that of feeling uncertain & frustrated. Some choose to respond by misrepresenting Prius PHV, making people believe it has less capacity that it actually does and that the plug-supplied electricity isn't used when the engine runs.

    Ultimately, it doesn't matter. If GM chooses to disregard need and builds what they want instead, mainstream consumers will just keep buying their traditional vehicles. It's that simple.
     
  7. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    I can not think of any more business ways to boost sales of the Volt. Tax incentives, price drop, attractive leasing options have not increased overall sales of the Volt.

    The Volt has become a "problem child" in the business world. It will never be a "rising star" as the Prius.

    DBCassidy
     
  8. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Which doesn't answer my question.

    You seem to have wanted GM to put out a hybrid to compete with the Prius. The Prius sells well, but the other hybrids aren't making the other companies fortunes. A GM hybrid would just be another among several.

    As for mainstream, hybrids broke 3% of auto sales last year. Yes, a GM hybrid would help grow that, but corporations are soulless, greedy entities. Growing the segment helps us, but how does that help a company that is a latecomer to it?

    Considering potential sales and profit, the Camaro is a better short term investment than a hybrid. A plug in is a better long term one because being first to a segment has a better chance of being top in it. PHV development also benefits later hybrid products.

    The Ford Energi's might be better all around products for the mainstream, but they need to be counted together to beat the Volt in monthly sales. Despite its shortcomings as a mainstream car, the Volt is the PHV to beat at this point.
     
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  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Or were called trolls on other sites, and have a grudge. Yes completely agree the past posts on fanboi sites should have no part in the discussion. Just the current cars, market, and future market.

    Or anyone else. The cruze is doing much better than expectations, and represents what is probably the first sucessful compact for gm in decades. Honda tried to go straight after the prius, and failed badly. With GMs past, I doubt a "prius competitor" would make them any money. I think the prius sucess drove Lutz crazy, as he hated it, but Lutz thankfully is gone. The volt and cruze are winning conquest sales. That the volt has been the best selling plug-in has driven a lot of gm haters crazy, and hybrid haters as well.

    I am absolutely sure that if GM today, built a factory with Toyota and built prii, but gm called them something else, the prius would greatly outsell the chevy model. GM tried it before the corrola and the prism. The dealers and customers don't work well.

    Two mode and voltec are fundementally different, and if you don't understand that you don't understand the car. Two mode was quite expensive, and gm did not market it well. It looked like a way for lutz to pay lip service to hybrids, but not sell any. Think the hsd in the Lexus LSh and GSh, way to expensive for what you get, and tiny sales. BMW and Mercedes left the fold and built something better while gm was still sticking with it. These are expensive makers that decided two mode was too expensive.

    Voltec really is the child of the phev version of the ev1. The much lower cost hybrid system is quite similar to the one in the prius in terms of parts. The lower hp and not needing to have the strength to tow makes parts much less expensive. The big item is the battery, and as we have seen costs have been coming down. If tesla had the gigafactory running, I wouldn't be suprised if the next gen volt had a 20kwh pack that cost gm $4K. That may be gen 3.


    I guess that is why the prius phv sells much better than the volt. oopsie.

    Initial introduction vehicals like the prius phv don't appeal to the mass market. Many of us have told you that, but you persist in this mythology that the prius business plan of small batteries is working. Read the polls. People are asking for more range not less.

    Or that you still are following mythology. Gen I lays foundation. Gen II greatly increases sales. Toyota was going to be selling the phv accross the country before now, but obviously they decided not to do it. Will they in the next generation? I hope so, but they will likely add a bigger pack, as that is what customers are telling them. Its the toyota dealers that seem to not want the phv, but dealers have been a problem for gm and nissan too.

    You have no idea what changes are being made for gen II, but again you are putting your poor attitude out there.

    Yes if gm doesn't respond to the market the gen II will not be sucessfull. Absolutely agree.

    But if the volt tries to go mainstream as you say it, smaller batter, low cost, then it will fail also. The Gen II prius did not try to be a corrola. The corrola, cruze, focus are mainstream.

    Who knows will we get a focus energi that sells better than the volt? It may happen, but not because ford cut the battery down.

    What are the clues on the next volt? 8 months ago we learned that the platform was delayed for the cruze because it is selling well. We also know batteries have improved. This should mean less weight, and knowing gm, not a cut in power, so better acceleration and handling. The ice choice was done because of lack of resouces during bankrupcy, so we are sure it will be improved. Its not likely a non-di non turbo iron block 1.4 liter, but it may stay 1.4, I hope it at least gets di, akinson or variable lift or turbo, and an aluminum block. The charge depletion mode may get an improved motor that does not need a second motor to clutch in at higher speeds. The lawyers seem to have blessed parellel hybrid, so this likely will get refined. The price is likely to drop anouther $2K (making the low level of the $7K when applied with the past drop of $5K) while the tax credit is active, then drop again maybe by $3K when the tax credit ends. That's raw speculation about prices, as we only have clues. That would mean an increase in price of about $2500 from now after gm gets to 200,000 plug-in sales, until more costs can be removed in the gen III.
     
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  10. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    One reason the Prius sells so well *IS* that GM (and others) has specifically chosen NOT to offer a direct competition vehicle. In doing so, they have all but guaranteed that Toyota will OWN that market for the foreseeable future (and beyond).
     
  11. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    I already did, several times. Here comes the bold & caps....

    GM DIDN'T CONFIGURE VOLT FOR MAINSTREAM BUYERS.

    Get it?

    The battery-pack was grossly oversized, compromising cost, weight, and space. They didn't make engine efficiency a priority either.

    That tradeoffs didn't make sense. Why would you just blow off middle-market purchase-priorities of the masses like that? How did they expect to achieve profitable, non-dependent, high-volume sales?
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Honda Insight, failed miserably. The prius liftback is iconic, and outsells all other hybrids in the US by a large margin. Last year in the US 145K prius liftbacks to the number 2, 44K camry hybrid. Ford is soundly killing honda in US hybrid sales because it does not go directly at the prius, but offers something different. The Japanese have a large competitive advantage in hybrids, as the Japanese domestic market is the largest hybrid market in the world but buys less than 5% of cars from foreign makers. If honda can't do it, ford, gm, and vw are unlikely to do it. VW is going closer with a jetta hybrid, ford with the c-max, but a duplicate would fail worse than the insight 2.

    Since this is a thread about plug-ins, why are we on this far off topic. GM's volt is their most popular hybrid ever ;-) The smaller car than camry hybrid market is toyota's to lose in the US, no one can compete well other than a Japanese maker, because of access to that large market. On plug-ins it is a much more level playing field. The US and China look to be the big plug-in buyers.
     
  13. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    The EXACT same way Toyota did.
    Build a first gen car to 'test the waters'. Use what you learn from that to build a more popular/better 2nd gen car, then use what you learn from that to build out a "family" of Voltec powered cars.
     
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  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    My question is what benefit was there to GM to make a mainstream hybrid to compete with the Prius at this time?

    As a followup, how much difference would it make to the first question if this hypothetical GM hybrid had a plug and capabilities like the PPI?
     
  15. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    If someone wants a "Volt with a smaller battery pack" they can buy a Ford C-MAX Energi or a Prius Plugin. GM doesn't need to provide that trim level right now in the limited universe of plugin hybrid designs. I don't know anyone who insists that any plugin hybrid they buy must only be made by GM.

    When I bought my Volt in 2010 there was no other option unless I wanted to wait for at least another year. If I were in the market to buy a new car today I would probably buy another Volt.

    Notice that I don't go around proclaiming that the Prius Plugin battery is "grossly undersized" and underpowered even though it is for my own purposes -- it's size and everything else that implies is a fine tradeoff for some other drivers.

    When a cheaper 200+ mile BEV with DC fast charge comes along in a few years I'll probably buy that instead.
     
  16. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    The catch is, GM didn't. The configuration wasn't market driven like Prius. A different path was taken.
     
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Revisionist history. Sure they did.
    How many sales did the Prius have 4 years after its introduction in Japan?

    Update: ok looked it up.

    Using the first partial year may not be fair so I added up the first 3 years of worldwide sales for Prius and the Volt.

    Prius: 52,000 98,99,00
    Volt: 72,000 11,12,13

    US only would be

    Prius: 60,000 01,02,03
    Volt: 50,000 11,12,13

    Sure, things aren't identical, nor is roll out logistics, etc.
    But the numbers are pretty similar.

    They have reached a similar number of people. The Volt was rolled out quicker that the original Prius and much quicker than the PiP.

    But all in all, the market penetration seems similar.
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The Prius was the first modern hybrid sold. It was a compact sedan when introduced. It was expensive compared to traditional cars in its segment. It didn't reach mainstream success until the second generation.

    The Volt is a compact hatchback. It has a cubic foot more passenger volume than the first Prius, and 6 cubic feet more cargo room. It doesn't have a fifth seat, but the usability of a fifth seat in a compact depends on the end user. It to is expensive, but, unlike the Prius, has had its price reduced during the first generation.

    The second generation isn't out, and there are no details from GM on it. Except for reducing the price. A statement which or may not include the price reduction that already happened. The Volt can't be judged mainstream or not until that generation comes out. The current one is the leader among PHVs, and is likely doing better than the Prius did during its first generation.
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Uchiyamada, who headed up the prius project, says the prius was not market driven, and that he did not expect it to sell well.

    Toyota chairman says hybrids will soon have 20% global share

    That certainly doesn't sound like the initial prius was made to be mainstream.


    Now the gm approach was a little more market and government regulation driven than the prius. The volt came out of the idea of correcting defects with the EV1. GM found that people had range anxiety with the ev1, and that they wanted more than 2 seats. GM produced a 4 seat ev1 and an ev1 with a range extender. GM could have built the volt much earlier, and been on gen III by now if they hadn't killed the ev1, something all of those involved now consider a mistake. Now GMs marketing had much to do with considering what they learned from ev1 drivers, and studying the typical commute. The execution was off, but the volt incredibly made it through gm's bankrupcy to score extremely high in customer satisfaction and leading the plug-in pack in sales in 2012 and 2013 in the US.
    Now GM has the on-star data from tens of thousands of volt drivers, polls from many organizations, they should armed with this information, more money and time, make an improved gen II.
    February 2014 Report | CCSE

    The question is will they? I'm hoping all the plug-in companies do great gen IIs. My bet (as in stock market investment) is on tesla doing it the best, but they have the advantage of not having to listen to dealers that don't like plug-ins.
     
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  20. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    That's because we're talking about solutions for the masses.

    Also, it is far easier to add capacity later than it is to scale back after the fact.