March 2014 - Hybrid Dashboard Report

John, I think participating in the hybrid market for 14 years has given you tunnel vision and an inability to see that Toyota isn't perfect.

When you referred to it being a wise choice for Toyota to not roll out the PiP nationwide, you mentioned more education needs to be done.
Were you referring to more education of consumers, or more education of Toyota, or more education of someone else?

 

Speaking of tunnel vision...

It is *ALL* of the above.

 

Well good then we are on the same page. Your posts are so crypitic, you sounded like the customers just needed education, not that toyota needs to change the product so it more meets the market needs, and dealers need different training and possibly incentives.

 

That is good, thank you for clarifying, sort of.
So, who exactly is this "someone else"?

I very much appreciate Toyota's leadership in the hybrid market. They still make the best hybrid available.

However, with plugins, especially pure electrics, they seem to be lagging behind, even slowing the education of the public about electric cars.

Would you not agree that both they, and the public, could learn more about the PiP if they made them available nationwide?

 

I'll certainly agree with that. They most definitely would benefit. But yet again, this isn't an either/or issue. It's not a matter of if, it is when. Waiting will provide a much higher payoff.

Look at how limited-market research has provided a massive payoff in the past.

Most people have no clue that there were 20 of the 1999 Prius (Gen-0, commonly referred to as the "Original" model) provided to ordinary consumers an entire year before the rollout of the upgrade we got in the United States. The feedback they provided was priceless. Some of their suggestions were implemented right away... in what we now call the "Classic" model.

Prior to the rollout of PHV, the same thing happened. There were a total of 300 circulated around the world for consumer feedback. Toyota took those suggestions and implemented them right away too. We got the upgrade, not the first.

Seeing how crazy the plug-in market is, especially having witnessed so much fallout with Volt, the decision to stay within the initial 15 states is proving to be a wise one.

What's your next question? I'm really enjoying this discussion.

 

They are so late with a nation wide roll out its probably counter productive to do it now with the next gen coming out next year. You will end up stocking inventory that you have to heavily discount to sell when the next generation comes out. The time for a nation wide roll out was last year. What they could do though is more of the Ford plug-in roll out strategy. Lots of internet only advertising and educational videos. Roll it out to any dealership that wants to sell it, but give incentives to dealers in the good selling plug-in cities like Austin, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas. They really could have served better states with the initial roll out of 15 states if they weren't focused on CARB.


Toyota probably has bought better data than this, and know where they could be selling more, but have decided they don't want roll it out say 20 states instead of 15.
Best Electric Car Cities In US? −
Plug-in electric vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Top fifteen states ranked by number of public charging points
available in the United States (as of December 2013)[19]​

State​

Number
of points​

% Total​

State​

Number
of points​

% Total​

California 5,176 26.6% New York 693 3.6%
Texas 1,599 8.2% Maryland 553 2.8%
Washington 1,325 6.8% Massachusetts 546 2.8%
Florida 996 5.1% Illinois 527 2.7%
Oregon 915 4.7% North Carolina 524 2.7%
Tennessee 866 4.4% Georgia/Virginia 370 1.9%
Michigan 721 3.7% Hawaii 351 1.8%
Arizona 710 3.6% Total U.S. 19,472
Note: The U.S. DoE Alternative Fuels Data Center counts electric charging units or points, or EVSE,
as one for each outlet available, and does not include residential electric charging infrastructure.
Number of public charging points as of as of 25 December 2013.[19]


When they roll out the next generation they should have it available nationwide to start. If tesla can sell nationwide in 2013, toyota should have deep enough pockets to do a full roll out.

 

1%-to-2% of 314-million (50 states) is far better than 1%-to-2% of 45-50-million (15 states).

 

Economics 101. More is not necessarily better.

 

If you hit the top 15 states then you probably hit over 90% of the potential sales. The problem is in its choice of 15, Toyota missed Texas, Florida, Ill, Georgia, and put in some bad states instead, leaving sales on the table. They could pick up most of the untapped market by adding 5 or 6 more states, but it would be better to add 25 cities instead of 6 states For a car like the prius phv, probably over half the sales potential is in California alone, but hopefully they will design the next generation so that it can sell better without a california rebate.

It smacks on top down, bad decision making to not have added at least Texas and Florida (Both predicted to be and actually are in the top 5 selling states) last year, but only kowtow to CARB states. Did this hurt toyota long term? No not really.

 

Economics 101.1: People can't buy what ain't available.

 

Economics 201.

Toyota offers other choices. They diversified, allowing the ability to react to the market. Consumers still have something to buy. With the next generation. Toyota will simply just pick up where they left off. Consumers who were aware of the previous will see the improvements. Consumers who will see a plug-in Prius for the first time will be impressed with how well it matches their purchase priorities.

GM did not take that same approach. They bet the farm on a single offering, hence such bad fallout with and so much backpedaling. There is nothing for them to purchase in the meantime and Volt will undergo a number of modifications, both design & operational. Effort to re-educate will be required having a model so different from the previous. It's a messy situation Toyota was able to avoid.

Think about the business. On-Going profit is needed. Having alternatives is a very big deal. There's only so much risk an automaker can take. Is the rush gamble worth it?

 

So while Toyota took a bold, brave step forward with the Prius when it was unique, you are slamming GM because it is too different from its other offerings?

That is what I don't understand about your position John.

It was wonderful when Toyota did it. But when GM takes the same bold step forward (granted, a decade late) it is bad?

 

Toyota designed a vehicle for the mainstream. It didn't require a massive premium or a plug.

GM clearly didn't do that. It is not the same. Consumers were left without anything at all beyond traditional vehicles. It is Volt or nothing. No plan "B" is showing the consequences.

Notice how GM is now planning to offer a "lite" version? That's the response to the shortcoming... hence the new chapter we're in now.

I have no idea why that is so hard to understand.

 

No question the technology is different between the Volt and the Gen 1 Prius.
I am not trying to draw a physical similarity between them.

When did the Gen 1 Prius go nationwide in the US?

 

Gen-1 wasn't available on dealer's lots until May 2002.

Prior to that, it was special-order only.

 

Interesting, the info I have found shows a few NW11 sold in 2000 in the US, with full year US sales of over 15,000.

Non-the-less, Toyota took a shot with new Hybrid technology with only one other competitor at the time.
Their solution was better, and sales proved it.

After selling 40-60 thousand in the US, out came an improved Gen 2.

GM is doing something very similar.
They went a different route with a higher price point, sportier, more driver enthusiast's car, but smaller. The technology was different than the Prius, but still as much a step forward as the Prius was in its day.
They will likely sell 60-75 thousand before their second generation Volt comes out.

New tech ---- first gen ---- improved 2nd gen.

Sure, Toyota executed the plan better, but I don't see that much difference in the broad strokes.

 

Pretty much as soon as available.

The Birth of the Prius - March 6, 2006
"The cars had been modified for the U.S. market, with more horsepower and additional emissions equipment, and the battery pack was now lighter. But the team had a hard time figuring out who the car would appeal to.
...
Since no one really knew who might buy these things, Toyota created a special Internet ordering system to ensure Priuses were allocated wherever demand popped up."

 

Sure initial adopters can buy a leaf or volt or ford energi in those other states. Certainly this can be a pull through for other versas and cruises. If Toyota does well on the redesign, it only hurts them for a couple of years. It all depends on what the next prius plug in offers. Nissan, GM, Ford, and Tesla are not standing still. Hopefully they will all do better in the next generation (for tesla this means different segment (blue star)). I am hoping toytota does a great job, but they have to actually listen to the market, not dictate to it as their PR seems to be doing about small batteries being better because they are cheaper and plug-in people really want the car to operate exactly like a hybrid. That was an awful strategy. They need to capitalize on the strength of the plug.

The annual reports seem to say toyota has bet more money this go round on plug-ins and fuel cells, than anyone but Nissan. The EQ, they properly cut the bleeding. The fuel cell we shall see. The Rav4 EV they spent very little on. GM seems to have been more productive with the volt/ampera/spark ev. I don't understand the mess you think gm is in. Its doing great with voltec compared to the Toyota strategy. Its all up to the next generation though. Toyota could do a great next generation or keep trying to dictate that adopters really just want a prius with a 10 mile plug. The volt could get a great transition, or just warm it over. The first gen volt is a lot closer to the market needs than the prius phv, but the next generation is where its really at.

GM was handicapped by the politics with the tea party and fox news going after the volt. Now they have to get through the public reaction to the ignition switch problems, which gm clearly has no excuse for. Still if the engineering is right on the next volt/ampera and the 2 other plug-ins gm is introducing, it will sell. If Toyota listens to potential customers instead of just the fanbois, they can improve the next generation prius phv as well. Toyota has a couple of big corporate advantages over gm, so if the cars themselves are equal, toyota should be able to sell a lot more of them.

I don't think john will ever see the fallacy in his own reasoning there. He has compartmentalized these things.

 

It definitely didn't need a plug. From trollbaits link though
The Birth of the Prius - March 6, 2006

Seems like they made a high tech drivetrain that required a premium price, but hey that is just Wada and Uchiyamada that thought that

I think you probably have some mental block here, so I'll spell out each individual item.
1) When the prius came out toyota buyers could buy the tercel then in 1999 the platz/echo or the larger corolla(all years). The prius had a large premium price to these cars even after the MITI subsidy paid directly to Toyota.

2) Toyota did not have other alternative vehicles, only the prius. GM has the volt/ampera and spark ev.

I don't understand the consequences that are bad for looking forward and making the volt. You seem to be looking backward. Toyota had only one hybrid. Why risk that? Again from the link above.

What Wada decided was he didn't want to just produce another mainstream small car. It had to have superior technology. That seems like the opposite of what toyota did on the phv project.

I have no idea what this "lite" version is. GM would be stupid to make a 11 mile range volt. Perhaps you could point to a link.

 

No matter how much I keep trying to point out how things have changed, how different they are now, you keep telling people otherwise with the hope of getting to debate some more. Whatever. It's just like when no matter what you say, some people only hear "Prius" even though the subject matter had nothing to do with it.

The summaries of how we arrived at this point have been provided, hence dropping detail and being vague. That's how things are concluded. It's still all readily available for those interested in the past.

The next chapter has begun. It will conclude when upgrades are brought to market. Whether you like the decisions or not, they've been made. It's done.

There's no reason not to keep asking the what-if questions though. Maybe someone else will entertain them.

 

Q: What would Toyota have countered with if GM had made an honest marketing attempt with the EV-1?
A: Exactly the same vehicle they already had.

 

Not trying to debate, but when you put out your alternative history, I thought it best to correct it. We should not have a false idea of history. Toyota developed the prius as a premium priced car, not an econobox.

I will quit, correcting you, if you stop making it seem as if the past was quite different. I don't think you really think the prius was first designed to sell in huge numbers in the first generation, or that cost was a bigger consideration than technology.

Excellent! Let us move there, instead of you constantly telling us how the current volt has killed the future. Or that GM is actively trying to make the volt more like the prius phv.

No what if question was asked by me. Perhaps you misread my post. I was posting what car companies need to do for the next generation.