What's holding back electric car sales?

I agree that most restrictions are lifted with PHEVs, but they are still just hybrids with a battery extender...not an EV. I might consider one next purchase if the costs are reduced and choices increased (not just for the CARB states), but the logistics of charging each leg/trip still remains a restriction for the populous as a whole. I see at them as just an expensive 'tweener for now.

 

That's funny, I would say the exact opposite.
I have far more freedom, time and convenience with my EV than I ever had with any gas car.
The misconceptions you listed are indeed holding EVs back, however they are changing.

 

Wow. I really need a time machine to show most of the posters how the Electric Car market has exploded from a decade ago. I remember all the postings and discussions of how only conversion EVs, glorified golf carts, and leftovers from the CARB mandates (e.g. EV RAV-4) was the ENTIRE EV market. That involved a lot of Prius Chat discussion coverage. It was Telsa Motors that really shook up (and is STILL shaking up) the fossilized auto manufactures. Many statements that battery chemistry and physics made a 200 mile EV impossible was a auto industry consensus until Tesla blew that out of the water.

The EV market is actually taking off like crazy. Don't confuse a relative shift with an absolute shift. I've got the spot in my garage for the next PHEV/EV outlet identified. All that remains is for the 2001 Prius to reach its End Of Life. Between its arrival and eventual departure the EV options have gone from ZERO to almost every manufacturer having an offering.

 

If memory serves me correct you have a Tesla which is leading the change, but still an exception with the restriction of cost and charging infrastructure...for now at least. I have the utmost respect for every pioneer consumer that helps lead to a better solution, we just don't have the golden ring yet. Until the government and industry get together and make this change acceptable to the average John or Jane citizen, most will just keep buying the freedom they already have. I have my fingers crossed though...and I did buy into the Hybrid.

 

It is quite sensible to point out that present (and future) EVs have good fits and unacceptable fits with the huge range of driving needs throughout the country. There is not an actual "average John or Jane citizen". The opposite is the case. The 100+ million John and Jane citizens are spread from extreme to extreme in vehicle needs and wants. Too much of the discussion is presenting the EV acceptability as an all or none issue. The more relevant issue is what factor(s) should be the highest priority returns for future EV design changes.

 

All or nothing as it relates to the freedom we have now. From a Smart car to 1 Ton PU, including Hybrids and plug-in hybrids, they all get you there unrestricted. Whether you work 3 blocks from home or need to drive to grandma's house 2,000 mile away, there is always a gas station and it takes minutes to fill up. This is not the case with EVs, H2, propane or any other option...at present. Select few are willing to give this up this freedom, or norm, otherwise we likely wouldn't be having this discussion. However, that's just my opinion.

 

come up with an ev the size of an suv with 3-400 mile range in winter, and you'll have a winner. and then, on to pick up trucks.

 

Mitsubishi outlander phev arrives end of next year. The question will be price, and I think that will hold it back. My prediction of the next big hit is the tesla model X, which should add 10,000 bevs world wide (rest may take away from other plug-ins), next year while they ramp up, probably half in the US. The real expansion, comes in fits and starts.

2017 should be at least 200,000 US plugin sales versus around 120,000 sales in 2014
in order of appearance
tesla model X
Gen II volt
outlander phev
Gen II leaf
gen II prius phv
tesla model 3 (possibly not until 2018 using gigafactory batteries)
new 150 mile bev nissan (maybe leaf using lg batteries)
new 200 mile aer gm bev (using lg batteries)

2020 is estimated to have 500,000 US plug-in sales but here there are a number of assumptions, it could be much higher or lower.

 

exactly, patience grasshopper.

 

While it is the norm, there are a number of freedoms the ICE vehicles deny you.
You don't have the freedom to travel from the mainland to Hawaii.
You don't have the freedom from having to stop and fuel up while you are traveling.

In the first case, people really don't care, as they either don't ever need to, or have accepted it and don't consider that it is a lack of freedom.
In the second case, again, people are just so used to the limitation, they don't see it as the inconvenience it really is.

 

Alternative fuel vehicles, including the EV don't have these these two freedoms you mentioned either. None of the cars being discussed fly, but the "normal" car takes minutes to fill-up as apposed to several hours with EV...if/when you find a place to plug in. The exception to the last is your Tesla, if you happen to be lucky enough to be near a supercharger and get a 20 minute half charge. Also when talking to Tesla Motors directly, they said it is not advisable to use the supercharger regularly as it will noticeably shorten the life span of the pack...their words, not mine. Tesla is the only one closing in on the travel restriction limitations and I think they have the best direction so far, but it's not here yet and most still will/can not afford a $100,000 car. In fact most, like yourself, that can afford that car, do not have travel restrictions to begin with, what ever choice is taken.

While I applaud your purchase of a Tesla, EV's are still limited use vehicles as compared to gas, diesel, hybrid and plug-in hybrids in the real world. I still have hope for the future though.

 

I disagree that an EV is limited, for all users.
It has had no limitations for us. It has taken us everywhere we wanted to go without the limitation of needing to fuel while on travels in day to day use.

For SOME, it is limited. And it is limited for more people than an ICE is.
It is not inherently limited though, and for many it allows greater freedom than an ICE.

The same holds for the Leaf and others, although the ratio of those that find it meets their needs to those for whom it does not is different.

 

But articles like this one about electric vehicles, really are talking about plug-in vehicles which include PHEV and BEV. Volt drivers on average actually drive more electric miles than leaf drivers in the US, and over 80% of trips do not include an engine start. A phev like the i3 with rex will likely push electric miles even further. No reason to arbitrarily suggest that a phev comes up well short of a zev, unless you are pushing fcv like CARB appears to be doing (you need to eliminate phevs to justify giving fcv any advantage over plug-ins and hence giving them a credit and tax credit advantage).

Audi is predicting that by 2030 40% of luxury cars will be plug-ins. Audi, Lamborghini, Porsche, Ferrari, mercedes are focusing on phev as they have a performance and efficiency advantage over similar ice only cars.

 

Since I don't have an EV because of their present limitations, I certainly cannot claim they are without limitations since there most definitely are. Yet there are some freedoms left out that apply to an EV and are limitations of Fossil fueled vehicles taken for granted. In fairness sake, I listed some of them.
1) Drivetrain reliability. Even at this early stages of commercial EVs, this is a huge advantage. On an EV is there a "check electrons" light?
2) Maintenance. What exactly is there after topping off the windshield wiper fluid tank? I really would enjoy all the garage space recovered by getting rid of all the oil cans, wheel jacks, recycle buckets, sample kits, oil filters, air filters, radiator coolant, etc. I must store to change Prius engine oil. What can leak onto the garage floor other than AC condensate with an EV?
3) Lower fuel cost.
4) Gas fire hazards.
5) Having to stop at gas stations. You are right, there are a lot of these throughout everywhere....except home. You are locked into stopping at them often.

Thanks for staying reasonable. I hope to stay the same way. It's appreciated greatly.

 

Jan of 2013 I remember being in Honda area at SiliconValley Auto Show....

there sat a 2013 Fit EV with a sticker of something like $32k and maybe 80 miles range. ....

5 paces away there was a beautiful Black Accord V6 Touring sedan with sticker of about $32k

No contest.

At that time, I think Focus EVs were about $35k sticker with a cargo area full of battery. Where's the value in that?

Volt, is it $35k or so? You get the smallest back two seats i know of.

I think the biggest reasons EV sales are slow are 1) cost 2) perceived short range (except Tesla) 3) charging challenges (apartments, street parkers, etc...)

Seems so many have garages used for storage, they don't even park in them.

I've seen a few chargepoints (like Blink?) here and there. Couple at a Mcdonalds recently. I don't recall seeing EVs hooked up to them.

 

Ev would certainly need -

tires rotated
Parking brake adjusted
They do have friction brakes, right? Those need inspection.
The electrical system probably has cooling. That would need inspection
Air conditioning would need service

I should be able to find a Leaf maintenance guide

Here 'tis

https://owners.nissanusa.com/content/techpub/ManualsAndGuides/NissanLEAF/2013/2013-NissanLEAF-service-maintenance-guide.pdf

 

Here's a 30k mile 'major service ' for Leaf. Not so much to do.

Replace brake fluid
❑ Replace in-cabin microfilter
❑ Rotate tires
❑ Inspect the following:
__ Axle & suspension parts __ Brake lines & cables __ Brake pads & rotors __ Charging port __ Charging port sealing cap __ Drive shaft boots __ <EV Battery Usage Report>1
__ Front suspension ball joints __ Reduction gear oil __ Steering gear and linkage __ Steering linkage ball joints

 

There are innumerable numbers of parts and service suppliers and shops in auto industry. They like things the way they are. Makes them a living.

Change will be very slow.

 

There are plenty of cars with tighter back seats than the Volt.

As for price, here you go... a new 2014 Volt for $29,595:

Keyes Chevrolet - new 2014 Chevrolet Volt in Van Nuys - Los Angeles CA


That doesn't include title, registration, sales tax etc. but is still $4,600 off MSRP. It also doesn't include the $7,500 federal credit or $1,500 state rebate which would make it only $20,595. That's the same as PiP MSRP without credits and cheaper after credits.

 

OK. I test drove a Volt for kicks in Jan '13 at Silicon Valley auto show. the 6 way manual dr seat was a deal breaker. Rep said a 10 way or even 8 way dr. seat not available in Volt. Not htat it matters much to me, but seems an oversight.