What's holding back electric car sales?

Absolutely. I cannot open the door and drive away with the Smart Key convinence.

I need to unplug and close the charge lid then hang the EVSE.

That's why wireless charging would make charging more convinence even more so than gas.

 

Yea, but with all that exercise you'll be more buffed than a regular Prius driver.

 

I found charging our PHEV and BEVs far more convenient is it takes less of my time.
It happens in my garage and doesn't require me to stop in the middle of doing something else, nor to fish out my credit card each time.

For someone without a garage, it might not be as convenient.

 

Oopse I didn't realize obama had changed the law. [/QUOTE]

I think that only Congress can change laws, while the President can direct changes in Executive Branch implementing regulations. Not knowing which type of action we're referring to here, I feel free to quibble with the above statement.

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ruling-would-allow-first-shipments-of-unrefined-oil-overseas-1403644494

Executive Branch changed the meaning of the law to allow exports without congress changing the law.

IMHO this is very similar to telling oil companies there will be selective enforcement of the law. They don't really need to refine oil to final produces, as the law had been interpreted, but simply put it through one step. Pollution and export laws have been selectively enforced before by many executive branches before now. I didn't mean to single out this administration. The bush 43 and clinton administrations also had executive actions that selectively interpreted the law.

 

I asked for usb's opinion, and we got it. It is an honest opinion and likely many others share it. Certainly those with phevs still have to visit the gas station, just less often as well as plug and unplug their cars. For many charging at home is more convenient, but not for all.

The good news is that at least 5 companies are working on wireless car chargers, and I expect at least 1 of them to get it right. If that counters the objection of those that don't want to plug and un-plug their cars every day, great then we just need to reduce the cost of phevs and increase selection to provide all the covience and choice of ice cars today. I guess if many charge wirelessly we should call them grid powered instead of plug-in. Ofcourse there will still be many that either have another vehicle or can afford a bev with their range requirements where a bev is a better answer than any car with an ice, even if it is grid fueled most of the time.

 

Here's a much better explanation of the condensate export issue below.

Note that the link text created automatically by the PriusChat text editor is misleading -- it's a straightforward news article and not an opinion rant piece.


RPT-COLUMN-Condensate ruling makes mockery of U.S. oil export ban: Kemp

 

+1

This is the part that makes it opinion

Now this is quite off topic for holding back electric vehicle sales, but is important to energy policy.

Bob Wilson and wjtracy had some good points on why this should not just be done haphazardly.

First do we really believe oil shortages are over in the US. What about china? What about Opec? I don't think they are coming soon but they will come. Allowing the market price and unlimited exports of this light sweet crude will lead to over production and quicker exhaustion of the fields. Right now we are producing the bakkan so fast that much natural gas is just flared off and wasted. Texas has laws against that but eagleford might be produced and depleted much more rapidly and then we are prone to more opec blackmail. The amount exported and length of export contracts should be regulated, otherwise the oil companies will simply pump out short term profits fast, leaving the rest of the country long term problems. The texas railroad commission used to regulate production of texas fields, but in the 1960s the federal government took over. The combination of federal regulations and nixon price controls, lead to over production and consumption.

The other point was that without the light sweet stuff, the east coast refineries won't operate. That leaves us prone to refining shortages like we had after katrina, and we will see the price instability. It is in the countries economic security to have excess refining capacity and for it to be geographically diverse. With the rules forcing us flagged ships to transport the oil, these refineries are at a disadvantage to the Japanese and Chinese that can use any old ship. A solution would be an export tarrif, perhaps around $7/bbl that would make sure US refiners had first choice of this oil. That money could also be used for deficit reduction, and is only a small part of the pure profit oil companies are going to make from exporting this light sweet consolidate.

 

...I have great hopes for the wireless charging. I want it to charge the Hv batt, charge the 12 v Batt, heat the engine block and heat the inside of the car, in that order, before the owner gets in for the morning commute. Oh and cook bacon and eggs...except the last one, I am serious

 

There is an added inefficiency to this type of charging, but those that want it prioritize that lower than conveince.

The real hurdle is cost. An EVSE level 2 for a home costs around $1000 installed now. Depends on the model and the amount of electrical work. It can be more, but I've seen quotes of $600 for some. Teslas using the standardized plug for RVs can be even less. A wireless charger is going to add to the cost of the car, and then more to the EVSE cost. A mat or plate type one that just lies on a garage floor may not add much to installation, but it is a big component adding onto the equipment cost.

Those may not work outside, in which case, it means installing it in the pavement, which will add cost. The added costs will likely keep wireless systems from being used at public locations. I admit a wireless option will get more people interested. I think the additional cost for it will just discourage them. Will the cost drop enough to help EV sales in these beginning stages, or will it after plug ins become acceptable to the majority of the public?

 

Resonance wireless charging that Toyota is using is pretty efficient and tolerable for misalignment. It also converts AC to DC that the battery need.

"In high power applications, such as charging of plug-in hybrid vehicles, end-to-end efficiencies (AC input to DC output) greater than 90% have been demonstrated." Source.

That means it is more efficient than the current bundled L1 cable charger with about 85% efficiency.

 

There is still the technology of auto connecting a conducting outlet. Inductive charging is not the only totally automatic way to perform charging. That does not mean it is easy or economical, but it would solve the inefficiency issue mentioned with induction approaches.

 

The line after the WiTricity source is, "Such efficiencies require that each stage in the system have an efficiency at 97-98% or greater. Careful design in each stage is required to minimize losses in order to achieve such performance." In other words, you have to use the most efficient components you can find that are likely more expensive, and the components have to be near ideally connected work well with each other. Probably also perfectly aligned. The onboard charger for the Volt alone is 90% to 92% efficient. Comments on Leaf forums place its charger in the same range.

Because of cost, a wirelessly charged car will use components of efficiency equivalent to that in plug ins. So that 90% will be less in the wireless car when it makes it to market, or the pluggers efficiency will be greater than now.

Level2 EVSE efficiency has been measured at 99%, which those willing to pay to install a wireless system will likely choose. That puts the Volt's overall charge efficiency at 90.8%. Those are lab measurements, which is what WiTricity is likely quoting for their system. The 85% is surveyed from EVs out in the field. So includes the effect of extreme seasonal temps, and possibly even cabin conditioning. There is no reason to suppose that the wireless system efficiency will not drop out in the wild.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/avta/pdfs/phev/efficiency_results_chevy_volt_onboard_charger.pdf

Not to belittle WiTricity's work, their resonance system is likely better than the others like induction for this, but outside a too long cord, a direct connection will be more efficient all else being equal.

Didn't a guy that make his Prius a home generator set such up on his own, or just planning too?
In addition to the magnetic resonance and induction, I also read of a system that simply spun a magnetic bar to spin one on the car, like a lab stir plate, to spin an onboard generator.

 

I plug in my golf car (cart). I don't need anything but a home 120 volt common wall outlet to do it. Convenient and functional because I don't play 2 rounds a day. It gets enough fuel to serve my needs at night when demand/rates are low. (We have a system where high demand power costs more than low demand power with the hours changing by the season. I even have a computer that limits the amount of energy I use during prime times.)

But I notice the golf club just bought 50 gas powered ones. Why, when they already have the infrastructure in place to charge 40 electric carts, would they replace electric with gas? Because when they gas up the cart, they can rent that cart for both a morning and an afternoon round without any pause. Bring it back and it is ready to go in zero time and zero labor expense. And, like the electric cart, it can be refueled at night when demand on personnel services for other tasks will be low.

It occurred to me, when I noticed those carts, that it is the time to charge, not the simple act of plugging in that is the differentiating factor for both carts and cars. And the ubiquity of gas stations. When battery swapping stations are on average located at around 60% of the distance the electric car can run in normal circumstances and refueling takes as long as a bathroom break, then some significant barriers to more common adoption will be lifted for lots of people.

I see the EV owners now being driven by some of these:
- high status (Tesla)
- commuter to the station or local workplace (limited use)
- gaining a tax advantage
- HOV access advantage
- green thoughts

But the average Jane or Joe?

 

Can I ask how long you keep your car? Anybody?

I think that's what's holding some sales back. BEVs only came out about 3 years ago and in limited numbers. Only now are they starting to be sold by more manufacturers with less restrictions. They'll be a small market but how many prospective or interested BEV owners still own a decent petrol car and will do for a couple more years?

As more owners replace their petrol car a small but growing proportion will consider a BEV. I will, but I'm not cutting my nose off to spite my face now and lose out monetarily just to have a BEV now.

 

So far most of the posters are like you, quite sensible and reasonable about the limitations and advantages of present EVs. It is the future realities that make today's EVs worth paying attention to. Here are some questions to consider:

1) When does the trade off between the time to charge an EV compared to the cost of gas (vs. kWh) make the charging wait worth it? The answer for a taxi (and your club's golf carts?) will be quite farther in the future than a short daily commuter with two or more cars and a garage. I don't think there will be a clear tipping point for mass EV adoption but a very incremental and continuous shift in what percentage of average Jane and Joe's are on the EV side of the above comparison.
2) Will gas become more expensive than kWh in the future? It is true now for most places (CA being an exception?).
3) Will pollution regulations become looser or stricter?
4) What direction will future tax and other incentives take?


It's sort of fun having to explain what a rotary dial phone is to a young student. (How many of those are still around.) It may be fun for my offspring to explain to the following generation what an "transmission" was. (How many refer the the Prius HSD as a transmission?)

 

The time to charge is really only a hindrance to commercial EV use, like the golf carts. That is when considered rationally. People are irrational though. If they aren't willing or able to figure that a hybrid or even a diesel can save them in fuel costs over a regular gasoline car, why would give a BEV more consideration beyond already held beliefs.

That's why the plug in hybrid will dominate at first. It doesn't have the BEV limits for longer trips, but gives much of the benefits day to day. Once people get a taste of EV driving, they'll be more willing to consider a BEV. Which may still be mostly suitable for local trips, but a positive experience with a PHV or EREV may improve the pros of the BEV over its cons for people.

A BEV capable of taking the family on vacation may never become available for the masses, but range extenders besides the ICE might be closer to market. The Al-air battery has promise without a heavy infrastructure investment. Even a fuel cell one might be available later in time. Younger generations may come to find the extra time of a super charger like network acceptable.

Battery swapping can be a solution for fleets, but it won't work for private cars. It requires a standardization of the pack, which may not be possible considering the design needs of a car. Then the condition of the battery itself plays a big part in the performance of the BEV. Putting in new newer one is more like rebuilding an ICEs engine than simply refueling it. But you might get one worse off than your current one in time. Tesla's solution was going to be to charge for a new pack, minus the worth of old one, if the owner never came back to the swapping station to get their original pack.

 

I don't know. The 2001 Prius is still working perfectly so I cannot answer yet.

 

+1

The average age of a car in the US is around 11 years. My last car was a 1998 my which had an accident in 2009 at 12 years old, and the insurance company totaled it. My 2010 gen III prius was bought in 2009, and I likely will sell it in 2015, but I'm sure it should have a long useful life after I am driving it.

There is enough fear and doubt about the battery longevity and costs that I would not expect the market to take off (>5% of new sales) until these cars have been on the road a decade (2021). Leases can take away a lot of that risk, and lease rates on most cars (not the i3 or model S) is quite reasonable. I still expect rapid growth in the US. Europe seems to have much higher prices for the same cars and this extra premium will probably hold europe back. I would expect before 2020 the chinese will be the biggest market for plug-in vehicles, which bodes well for tesla, gm, and vw to recoup R&D. The Japanese may not do as well in the chinese market given the politics between the countries.

 

There is a lot of inertia behind gasoline. Changing the fueling paradigm, even though the new method is much more convenient for most (commercial uses aside) will take time.

As more people experience it, I believe it will accelerate sales, rather than plateauing at 3-5%.