2015 Prius plug-in VS 2015 Chevy Volt

yes,yes, we all know how tall you are.

 

I have a few friends/co-workers who are in Volt leases right now. Their residuals are all fairly high.. between $23k-26k if I recall (base vs premium). Its a problem thats discussed on the Volt forum, but everyone in a lease is pretty much forced into returning their Volt and getting a new one (if they want to stay in a Volt).

This has created a huge supply of used Volts (at least here in CA). Someone over on the Volt forum linked an article about auction prices for 3 year old off-lease Volts and they were in the $15k range (average), if I recall correctly. For a $40k car when it was leased (3 years ago), thats pretty bad.

Of course, like you pointed out, different regions had different incentives and that all eventually gets priced in.. but like I said, when Volt 2.0 comes out, its just going to tank Volt 1.0 resale values even further.

 

I completely agree - if you compare it to the 40k some paid way back then...
Similarly the prices on early PiPs before incentives were crazy high. If people are having a hard time getting 21k on a year old PiP its only going to get worse in 2 more years

My friend is ticked that he paid 33k for a 2013 Volt because it was just before MA started a $2500 rebate - and he's at $25,500 net. I bought mine after the state rebate and am therefore at 22.7k net.
Around here the PiPs have dropped at least that much

I admit I don't know anything about Volt 2.0 but wouldn't any drop be similar to a PiP's after PiP 2.0 comes out ?

I'll add that when I bought my 2013 PiP I knew there'd be better cars coming at better prices, think that's going to be the case no matter what you buy these days. For me the tax incentives made these purchases compelling

 

I couldn't get jack for my PIPA so I traded at a loss and rolled it into my Volt loan. So I'm upside down twice! I'll be keeping this car for a while since I owe way more than it's worth. LOL

 

just looked at our area's resale values (black book) :
the 34k PiP - 3 yrs old , 50k miles is fetching 16-17k
same age Volt 37k original price, same miles - 15-16k

rebates are a critical piece though - I got $2500 for the PiP (now 4k including state)
The Volt rebates are now $10,000 making it less expensive and they used to be several thousand more

 

IIRC I guessed ~ $17k years ago. It's not surprising really, it just reflects the effect of subsidy and GM:

1. Start with $40k
2. Deduct $7.5k
3. Presume ~ 50% depreciation over 3 years like many GM cars

0.5 * (40 - 7.5) = $16,250

 

My thinking is, a big reason people go with the PiP, even though it doesnt have much all-electric range is that even when you run out of juice, you can pretty much bet you'll get 50MPG.

For sure Toyota will improve that in the next generation, but by how much? Maybe 10%? That may even been on the high side. Even though the Gen 3 Prius had a much better EPA rating than the Gen 2, the Gen 2s still seemed to hold their value. Of course, I could be wrong and Toyota may come out with a 40 mile AER car that gets 60MPG, in which case the value of Gen3 will drop substantially, I would think.

But Toyota doesnt seem to be a big fan of electric much less the Plug-In.. and they've been very tight lipped about whats coming in the future.

Chevy, on the other hand, looks to be building the plug-in that most people seem to say they want.. essentially a Nissan Leaf with a range extender (Volt 2.0 rumors seem to be pointing to a 20kWh battery with a 1.5L range extender).. and they've had no issues leaking teasers to the press about whats coming next year.

 

actually, they've been leaking since years before the car ever came out.

 

Yep!

Those same vocal people also say, when pressed, that the car has to be "affordable."

 

and yet, they sell more leafs than volts.

 

He was referring to Volt 2.0. The lack of the 5th seat crippled sales IMO.

 

$16-$17k for 2012 a PiP sounds like a steal. I was seeing 19-20k (at 35-40k miles) a few week ago, nationwide.

I am wondering if the huge supply of used Volts also applies to some extent to all hybrids/PiPs and may explain why we are seeing a dip in new hybrid/PHEV sales (whereas overall new+used may be on upswing). do not know, we always focus here on new car sales, not sure how to factor-in used cars. But seems to me there will be a boomerang effect 3 yrs after a sales boom.

 

"Fuel" cost wise the PiP generally wins if your typical drive between charging is <18 miles or >70 miles. If your short commute is aggressive and/or high speed, the Volt's advantage range shifts further down. High local electric rates will narrow the Volt's advantage range. A "dirty" local power grid can make the regular Prius the greenest choice.

In general I consider the PiP a better design (in terms of efficiency, utility, cost benefit) but the current federal tax incentive significantly tipped the scales in the Volt's favor for those that can take full advantage of it.

Rob

 

oops. i wonder what nissan will have when new volt gets here? is the leaf interior size similar to volt?

 

I believe black book values are wholesale, vs. what you are seeing would be retail.

 

The thing with the Volt is, the leasing was/is an extremely attractive option. In fact, even when asked by co-workers and friends, I'd always tell people that leasing a Volt was a good way to go (provided you were ok with 4 seats and the mileage limitation of a lease). The fed tax credit gets factored into the monthly lease cost, but not the residual (at least thats what it looks like from my layman perspective).

But that is exactly why there are many (and soon to be much more) used Chevy Volts. The residual is so high, Volt leasees have no choice but to walk away from their Volt lease. Those who wish to stay in a Volt have found it is cheaper (or around the same cost) to just get into a new Chevy Volt (with more range even!) vs buying out their 3 year old Volt.

Ally doesnt even seem open to the idea of negotiating on lease buyouts. The cars go to auction, get sold at some stupid price because everyone knows they can get a new Volt for about $24k after incentives (at least in CA). So what would someone pay for a used Volt?

As far as I know, Toyota never structured their lease in this fashion. In fact, the residual on a Rav4EV seems low to me (around $17k after 3 years?).

I just dont understand why Ally does this. I would've thought they'd rather sell the car than send it to auction. But someone on the Volt forum mentioned that banks have something called "residual guarantee insurance"? I googled it and it seems there is such an insurance product. So I guess if Ally is guaranteed the residual at the end of a lease, they wouldnt want to sell it for anything less than the residual. I guess that would make sense for Ally.. although who would continue to insure them?? And if this is the case, why doesnt every bank do this??

 

Watch the Godfather. Anything can be insured. However, you may not want to pay the premium.

Joking aside, and specific to your question: IIRC, Ally is a subsidiary of GM. You might as well ask why the pre-BK financing arm of GM went into massive debt handing out loans to sub-prime (and worse) individuals. It's finance games on a broad corporate scale. Oh, and not to be forgotten, somewhere in that landscape of GM garbage some subsidiary is taking a tax deduction on the losses. And as we know, GM are masters at going into debt.

<<political rant>>Obama staved off a major economic depression by handing out mountains of zero interest money, but the truth is that the groundwork for the next credit bubble has been set. </rant>

 

< 11 miles the difference should be minor, probably largely ignorable. Short aggressive/high speed commute would actually favor the volt, not the pip... though both benefit from featherwork, and if it's really that short, there's a good chance a milder route can be found.

As I understand it, there's two ways to pass on the tax credit in leases:
1) lower the lease rates (higher residual, not attractive to buy out)
2) lower the residual (lower residual, maybe more attractive to buy out)

 

That's what I meant. PiP advantage below ~ 18 miles assumes running all EV until battery is depleted. Aggressive or high speed driving will fire up the PiP's ICE sooner, so the Volt fuel cost advantage will cross over sooner. Agreed, its not a huge difference, but the PiP is still cheaper to fuel and (more significantly to me) more energy efficient in this range. Even at the shorter distances, if you do it every day or multiple times per day, it adds up over the years.

Here's an example, using UDDS cycle numbers measured by ANL and assuming 20 miles per day with a recharge and 20c/kWh every day for 5 years.
PiP: 0.179 AC kWh/mi * 20 mi * 365 days/yr * 5 yrs * $0.20/kWh = $1306.70
Volt: 0.266 AC kWh/mi * 20 mi * 365 days/yr * 5 yrs * $0.20/kWh = $1941.80

Diff: $635.10 / 3175.5 kWh

Rob

 

Interestingly, the standard Prius at 50mpg and gas at $3/gallon comes out to $2190 over the same period. So I'd say the PiP savings of $600 over the Volt is significant, compared to the $250 savings of the Volt over the Prius. Again, more expensive gas will tip the advantage toward the plugins, and cheaper electric will reduce the PiPs advantage over the Volt. And this is also for the 20 mile per day with recharge case, which is just about the sweet spot for the PiP.

Rob