Nissan and Renault sell 200k electric vehicles worldwide

I'm not the one to start using 'infrastructure' here.

I acknowledge that there is a next gen Prius PHV. It, however, won't be here for another two years. There are people that would consider buying a PPI now, except it isn't sold in their state. This isn't like the early days of hybrids when the only choices were the Prius, Insight, and Civic. Those potential PPI buyers have other options. Mainly the Volt and Ford Energis, but also a few BEVs. Mitsubishi's PHEV SUV will likely also be an option before the PPI arrives in their state. Two years is a long time to not offer a product when competitors have a product.

With the PPI being a package option, what resources would be diverted from the next gen R&D in order to expand its distribution? What resources were diverted away for the Mirai? The "we want to focus on the next gen" worked when that next gen seems soon, not when it is 2 years off.

 

Now, you are asking about "infrastructure" or whatever the heck we want to call it. Why would Toyota spend time & money training sales staff about the current model knowing the next-gen will require retraining? Remember all the problems we observed in the past about outdated information being passed along by sales staff in the past? At this point, it's best to let the other automakers help with the market expansion. That plataeu cannot be overcome by Toyota alone.

The problem gets worse when stepping back to see what consumers do with that outdated information too. Opening up that can of worms, especially when the profit-margin is razor-thin anyway, makes no sense.

 

"You keep using that word...I do not think it means what you think it means"
The Dread Pirate Roberts
AKA Wesley

 

Only offer it in one state?

 

Letting other makers expand the PHV market is part of the reason that the majority don't understand what Toyota's idea of plug in hybrid is.

GM pushes the Volt as an EREV. Ford lists the longer EV range and higher EV speed as pluses. And maybe half the population can't even see a Prius PHV at the local dealer.

Prius is what people picture when they hear hybrid car. A Toyota isn't what they think of when they hear plug in hybrid.

The only hard data we have is on it being delayed 2 years.

 

Thinking he'd be a total fail - that's kind of what Lutz told Elon Musk, prior to bringing the Model S to market. Musk proved Lutz wrong .... not that Lutz hasn't ever missed the mark on numerous other occasions. But if you think about it - when has ANY auto company started up - and become successful within the past 50 years, other than Tesla. For that matter - last time I read about it, ANY startup business' likelihood of success over a decade is less than 10%.
.

 

And I think Musk would be the first to tell you that there was an incredible amount of "heavy lifting" involved. Idealists who think this stuff is easy don't have a clue.

 

And Musk has done the heavy lifting, and continue to do so with Tesla.

The FCV supporters want the taxpayer to do the heavy lifting in comercialising their product by paying for the infrastructure.

 

The true situation is not competition among other plug-in vehicles. As much as many hope that will be, it simply isn't.
Traditional vehicles will continue to put intense pressure on the plug-in market. No matter how impressive those vehicles taking advantage of batteries and plug-supplied electricity are, the reality is that gas is dirt cheap. So, the majority just plain aren't interested.

Reality bites. Dealing with it first requires acknowledgement of the actual problem.

Start by identifying needs & goals.

What are we trying to accomplish?

 

I like Toyota's approach, where the focus is on fuel economy over electric-range. Most electricity, at least where I live, and throughout most of the US I believe, is generated by burning fossil fuels. Plugging in more is not solving the air-pollution problem as much as making a gasoline-powered car more fuel-efficient, and that's what the Prius is all about.

 

What's comforting is FCV use the same propulsion system (motor & controllers) as EV. So offering a battery-pack instead of a fuel-stack isn't a big deal.

 

What air pollution do you want to reduce? Controlling the traditional emissions, NOx, HCs, CO, etc, are generally not tied to a vehicles fuel economy. At least not in a direct way. There are several non-hybrid cars with average fuel economy that are rated SULEV or PZEV. Some diesels even come close. On the other hand, CO2 emissions are linked directly to fuel economy, and improving economy is the only way of decreasing its emission.

A plug in may be just shifting emissions to a power plant, but where the pollutant is emitted can be just as important as how much. China has strong BEV program in part because it is better to emit harmful pollutants at the power plant than within the population center. The foundation of CARB's ZEV policies was in reducing emissions within their cities, particularly LA with its smog issues. Plug ins move emissions out of the city, and to a central location. This can also be done with FCVs. It is then easier, technically, to clean up and monitor the emissions of a power plant than a large fleet of cars. Switching away from or to different fuels is also easier. Natural gas is still a fossil fuel, but it is cleaner than the old coal plants NG plants are replacing. It may even be cleaner than a gasoline car. It is when burned directly in an ICE.

Then there is the factor of vehicle age. Most cars on the road can be there for over ten years. ICE cars emit more over time as they age and wear. EPA regulations allow for them to get dirtier. In areas with lax emission testing, owners can even defeat the emission controls. A BEV with remain virtually as clean as when new. There is tighter monitoring of the power plants emissions than for individual cars. Plus, many areas that can support plug ins are also pushing for a cleaner grid. So a BEV can get cleaner in time. As we have to shift to more non-conventionial petroleum sources, like tar sands, the pollution to make gasoline or diesel gets dirtier.

 

I think this is a very difficult concept to sell to potential customers, so I am not surprised at all that dealers find it hard. You basically are telling a customer to plug-in but not too much because plugging in is bad too. It is convoluted logic at best, and really directed at saying those other plug-ins are bad, which is an awful way to sell a plug-in car. No wonder dealer complain and fail.

So the plug-in prius could be sold using what is traditionally a straight plug-in sell.

Electric motors make great acceleration at low speeds (also true of regular prius liftback but who cares)
Switching from gas to electricity swaps fuel from opec or the tar sands (know the customer here) to domestic electricity
Fewer trips to the gas station, and less chance of fuel costs going up on the next oil shock, saudi arabia is not going to keep oil cheap forever

I would completely shy away from source of electricity unless asked. In over 90% of the country air pollution is lower with electricity (its capped or low) than gasoline, and this information is different for each dealer how much cleaner. For ghg it really won't make much of a difference unless you use solar or buy wind, its going to be lower in 70% of the states on the grid but by only a few percent. Here again individual dealers by state can be supplied with information. versus the other plug-ins

volt -> Use toyota versus gm, back seat room, cargo room

c-max, fusion -> hwy mpg after the battery runs out, price and cargo room against the fusion which is the bigger competitor.
leaf -> range anxiety, how far can you really go on a cold day, what about that trip

model S -> will never come up, these cars don't compete and prius phv only has price, which is why that model S customer won't really get convinced by a toyota salesman if they want a tesla.

Never insult the grid or the bigger batteries if you want to sell to initial adopters which is the market today. Add more battery, more range, and better accelearion in the next gen. Dropping city mpg doesn't matter in the argument, you are using electric.

Toyota has decided not to roll this out past the carb states and this is their decission. They don't think they will sell many more, so this is self handicapping. A difficult anti-plug-in story makes dealers confused. I think this corporate double speak won't end until 2016 when toyota will have seen how well or badly the mirai does in the press. The clarity got press as a good car simply too expensive, I expect these reviews will be more harsh.

 

I haven't done the math, and I probably couldn't, because I'm not an engineer, but it's a long way from the coal or gas-fired power plant to my car; so it makes sense to me that it's more efficient to burn the fossil fuel in an efficient hybrid like the Prius, than to convert it to electricity and transmit it hundreds of miles first.

 

Which is why I can't understand why Toyota (or other FCV makers) wouldn't build a plug-in FCV. Then, most folks would only need to fill up a couple of times a year greatly reducing the importance on the need for an abundance of hydrogen fueling stations early on.

 

It may seem that way.
If you look at the efficiencies involved though, an electric car is far more efficient.
You need to remember that the Prius engine is, at best 30% efficient.(tank to wheels)
Most EVs are about 90% efficient (tank to wheels).

So while there is some loss in the transmission of that electricity and the charging of the batteries, it is still more efficient overall.
And similar to hydrogen, IF the charging of the car happens when excess renewables are available, it really is a huge win. (Note, that is a goal, not the reality in most places at present).

 

FCHV is what came prior to this generation. Cost and space are obvious issues with that approach.

 

Call me skeptical, but I find it hard to believe the energy conversion from tank-to-wheels is 3-fold less efficient than fuel-to-generator-to power-line-to-cross-country to the home, stepped-down then to charge a battery, then converted to power-to-wheels. That's hogwash, sorry.

 

Sure, and everywhere is different. Like I said for most of the US electricity is more efficient, but I would shy away from the question if trying to sell plug-ins. Typical marginal power that plug-ins use is 42% efficient natural gas ccgt power plants after grid losses. If we multiply that by the leaf's 114 mpg we get 47.8 mpge (based on natural gas). The us is retiring inefficient coal faster than we are building it, and very little goes into marginal car charging, which is mainly natural gas with some wind. That leaf will in most places in the US get more efficient over time. The prius on 84% efficient oil to gasoline gets 42 mpge (based on oil and natural gas), as oil and natural gas are used to refine oil to gasoline. That leaf is more efficient, and the US has a lot more natural gas years than oil.

Your own neighborhood is different canada is a net exporter of oil not an importer. Your calgary grid is also dirty than most of the US with 51% coal and 38% natural gas. Calgary does seem to building more wind and natural gas like the US, but a prius may be more efficient there when you drill down to margin use, and definitely on average use of fuels.

My problem with selling the prius phv on efficiency is it gets so complicated, and often the numbers work against it.