November 2014 - Hybrid Dashboard Summary

So the Prius Plug-in has a supply problem or the HOV stickers ran out in CA?

 

Jetta hybrid sales show a true flop. Maybe too much power?...

 

ouch, another big fall from 2013, and december is not going to be any easier with these falling gas prices. 2015 looks like it will be anouther declining year. Hopefully 2016 will turn it around.

given the price and how the volt and ford energis have done, it has to mainly be inventory and dealers not wanting to or perhaps being trained to sell them.
November 2014 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

The prius was #2 behind the leaf in january through july. August through November it has fallen to 7 behind the leaf, volt, model S, fusion energi, c-max energi, and i3. If the problem was simply stickers it would not have dropped this badly. Still its better than 2013.

Unlike hybrids, plug-ins actually grew this november versus last year, and increased market share. This growth is slowed mainly by the prius phv, which I hope will recover some in december, and the volt, which will not recover until the next generation is released next year. That likely speaks for slow plug-in growth in 2015, but perhaps rapid growth in 2016 when the gen II volt, tesla X, and outlander phev will all be shipping in volume.

 

I think it is just too pricy when compared to the diesel and gas one with the new improved engine.

 

Sales of the car are good for the jetta
Volkswagen Jetta Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

With falling gas prices diesel and hybrid take rates have fallen. The diesel has dropped less than the prius liftback, but economics of buyig a jetta hybrid at sub $3 gasoline doesn't make much sense. I don't think people go into the vw dealer thinking hybrid, and that dealer is less likely to even show the car at these gas prices.

2013 Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid vs. Jetta GLI vs. Jetta TDI vs. Jetta 2.5 - Comparison Tests - Page 4

At those prices if you really want a hybrid you will look at a prius, camry, c-max, or fussion, not a vw model. If you want a tdi, vw is the place to go. A jetta hybrid is more than a similarly equiped camry hybrid, but that camry is quicker and more roomy, the only category the jetta hybrid will beat it on is mpg, and gas is cheap.
Compare Side-by-Side

 

dianne has plenty w/stickers, maybe they are struggling with the supply of defective chargers?

 

i can't believe honda sells more civic hybrids than insights.

 

...apparently supply problem of some sort...HOV stickers have been renewed for the short term I believe

 

are gas prices down worldwide? we must be down 30%. any ideas why? i'm still paying $3.60 for heating oil.

 

Not so fast my friend, mpg in the US new vehicle fleet increased 1 mpg in 2012, and 1 mpg in 2013. Mpg will also go up in 2014 unless they sell a lot more cars than predicted in December. What we have here is variability, and yes oil prices have a lot to do with this, but so do seasonal promotions and other factors. 4 months of flat in a multi year rising measure does not mean the upward trend has stopped, it looks like there has just been some regression to the mean, and the mean at $10/gal gas is different than $2/gallon gas, but also cafe rules force a rise now through 2025.

Historical Gas Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

 

refined Heating oil is imported into new england, and must travel on a US flagged ship. Your answer is regulation. In this case the regulation was put in place to preserve union jobs. I don't know if it has been effective at doing that, but it is quite effective in adding to the price of heating oil, which the US taxpayers then subsidize to a large percentage of fuel oil customers.

Refined products often lag oil price changes. The results of the Saudi decision should trickle to home heating oil customers about the time the climate warms up ;-)

 

thanks, you mean i would be paying even more if it wasn't subsidized?

 

With good regulation, instead of the subsidies, if we had started a decade ago, you would be paying less.

If we kill the subdidy this year, you probably would pay more this year, and low income tenants and home owners would pay much more. It is hard to say who benefits from the subsidies, but likely it is the oil distributors in the north east.

 

are the subsidies the same as gasoline?

 

Most of them are the same, but obviously heating oil does not benefit from the $1B exemption from farmers paying tax on gasoline or diesel. It does benefit from from about $500M/year for low income assistance. Heating oil also has soft subsidies. The wealthy landlord benefits from renting oil heated housing to low income people that qualify for assisitance. The heating oil distributors benefit from lack of instrastructure for natural gas that is often blocked as politics from new england states, although that has changed with this fracking boom.

If the market had been allowed to evolve, much less heating oil would be used in the northeast. Then the east coast refineries would have enough heating oil to supply the rest of the customers (getting rid of transport costs and that union requirement). The subsidies and regulations have distorted the market. That probably meant lower bills in the north east in many years, but higher in cold winters.

 

Marketing and sales has conditioned people to think 36 MPG (highway) is really good. One day I asked some dude in a parking lot how his Accord Sport sedan (29 comb EPA) does. He said 'It's great on gas'. I said 'like how great?'. He said 'like 40 MPG'. I didn't say anything more. No way anyone gets 40 combined in an Accord conventional.

Was talking t a Honda sales manager a month ago. He was totally talking up figures like 'Yeah, these Accords get 36 MPG. ' Hogwash. On my commute, I wouldn't get a lick over 31 MPG at the pump ...

I got a 'low' MPG tank due to colder weather : 53 MPG actual. At least it's better than my lifetime of 52.

I don't know why people want some stupid gas engine running while they are buried in traffic. Weird.

 

Key is cafe standards will force the rise
Sustainable Worldwide Transportation - Sales-weighted fuel economy (window sticker)


but if you look at cafe it has even gone up during this window sticker plateau
Sustainable Worldwide Transportation - Sales-weighted unadjusted CAFE


Regulating by cafe instead of oil taxes is indirect, which is likely to reduce oil use less. Higher oil prices mean faster turn over to higher mpg (higher sales) and higher oil prices reduce vmt. Simply mandating higher cafe gives more choice, but it also adds price, now average new vehicle is over $31K.