First Hyundai now BMW. Ditching Fuel Cell Vehicles

This is a welcome blast from the past:

Notable quotes from the article:

• "It just doesn't make environmental or economic sense to try to put an expensive dual-powertrain system into less expensive cars which already get good mileage, Lutz said at the North American International Auto Show." - later he became the Volt salesman.
• "GM started selling its first hybrid vehicles, versions of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups, late last year. So far, they are available only to fleet customers. GM won't start selling the hybrid pickups to retail consumers until the third quarter of this year." - down in the dirt sales.
• "Lutz also argues that it doesn't make economic sense for consumers to pay several thousand dollars more for hybrid cars that get up to 30 percent better fuel economy." - So GM made Belt ASsisted (BAS or Basted if you bought one) that sold for thousands of dollars and gave maybe 3% improved economy.
• "Hybrids are an interesting curiosity and we will do some," he said. "But do they make sense at $1.50 a gallon? No, they do not." - GM went bankrupt and Toyota continued to be profitable.
• "For Toyota, it was a huge, huge, immeasurably valuable PR coup," said Lutz. GM's decision not to pursue a hybrid car "was a mistake from one aspect, and that's public relations and catering to the environmental movement."- this remains the thinking that prefers to live in a different reality free from facts and data.

This article came out in January 2004. It wasn't until October 2005 that we bought our first, 2003 Prius. Within months, I found these same, false claims were still being echoed while the truth was in my hands. No, a Prius is not for everyone but not because of these terribly wrong and inaccurate claims by Bob Lutz, a former GM executive.

Bob Wilson

 

It is easy to laugh at Lutz the clown, but I mostly just see him as a salesdweeb:
GM could not compete with Prius so the mouthpieces spread FUD and BS.

Lottery time: when will we find out who bankrolled the Hummer and nickel FUD ?

 

So now that bob lutz is gone from GM and trying to put v8s in fisker karmas we can compare bob carter's plug-in talk to lutz's hybrid talk.

Here Mr. Carter has taken a page out of the bob lutz book, when he spoke at the detroit auto show a year ago (1/2014). Instead of talking up expensive hybrids like Lutz, here he told us that in a decade the fuel cell vehicle would look like the prius, and that the heads of Nissan, Tesla, and VW were wrong to think plug-ins would be a better tech than hydrogen. Here only a year later Mr. Toyoda has tried to lower expectations from a decade to prius to a century to mainstream, and dropped expectations to 200 mirai leased in the US this year.

In 2007 - 10 years after the prius was introduced toyota sold 281 K in that year alone. I would be shocked if after 10 years in 2025 toyota sells anywhere close to that number of mirai, and toyota is finally pulling back on those hyped predictions.

 

yeah well, the infrastructure was already in place for the prius, wasn't it. now if we're comparing plug ins to fcv sales predictions, at least i have electricity in my home, and it's available most anywhere you want to put a charger.

 

Back to petroleum, as always...

 

Exactly.
There is no way fuel cells can grow as fast as the prius, because someone needs to build infrastructure and right now it is very expensive. That point has been pointed out again and again by people like Chu, Musk, Ghoshen, etc. Toyota's Mr. Carter only a year ago was waiving his hands and saying Fuel Cells could grow as fast as the prius ... but now the reality is setting in, and less than a year later he isn't talking about huge numbers this decade. Toyota though until recently and saying that leaf sales were tiny, and tesla sales were a tiny niche, while the 2 best selling BEVs sold 47K between them in the US alone, which compares to the prius at 28.1K world wide at a similar period. Nissan and Tesla know that they have to build infrastructure and they are helping to build it.

So Mr. Lutz comments can be compared in two ways. He said them against small hybrids in 20-4 while his CEO was investing heavily in fuel cells. Wagner believed fuel cells would kill the hybrid, and spent company resources accordingly. In 2005 just the next year the gen II prius sold over 100,000 vehicles in the US. Hydrogen was going nowhere fast even with lots of government money.

So you could say toyota was right, so they will be right again, or.... You can say both gm and toyota were blinded by hydrogen, and although it might work eventually it will take decades. Toyota's blindness in last year can be compared to the real numbers. BEVs and plug-ins had strong growth, while fuel cell expectations fell again. Its incredible, now you can buy the company that looked to lead fuel cells for less than $500M.

 

Wait, there is more!

New Toyota, Hino Fuel Cell Bus to Service Route in Toyota City

 

That is a much better use for hydrogen! I applaud Toyota for going that direction. Perhaps all their effort spent on hydrogen won't go to waste.

As for what executives say, I try to not pay attention, but rather to actions.

Perhaps Lutz's comments are the reason he, and GM were so against labeling the Volt a hybrid?

As for hydrogen, there is no way they could expand as quickly as the Prius did. Even if equal in all others ways, the need for infrastructure, as Austin and others have noted, precludes it.

It is rather amazing that electrics are catching on as quickly, or quicker, than hybrids did.

 

"It is rather amazing that electrics are catching on as quickly, or quicker, than hybrids did."

Perhaps the success of hybrids worked as a gateway drug to EV acceptance.

 

the only disagreement i have, is that the future is almost a complete wag. if we have 50 or 100 years of fossil fuels at reasonable prices, it's going to be next to impossible for alternative fuel vehicles to make much of a dent in auto sales. no matter which fuel or all of them pan out. unless you consider 3-5% a huge success.

 

I would disagree.

One of my favorite quotes is "the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones".
Yes, high gas prices will speed adoption of alternatives.

Once alternatives are more convenient, perform better, provide better wanted utility, are cheaper, and are cheaper to fuel, they will completely take over.

Hybrids got the "cheaper to fuel" down pat. That seems to be good enough for about 4% of the market.
As alternatives can win in more of the categories above, they will take over more of the market.

 

Well, having the ability to read and post in PC forums does not qualify one as an expert or to see the future. Either we are PC members or "Ms. Cleo" wannabe! Miss Cleo Commercial - Call Me Now! - YouTube

 

Strangely small battery but fuel cell busses and fuel cell fork lifts make much more sense for commercialization than cars. the infrastructure is much simpler. Toyota also is making fuel cell fork lifts.

Fuel cell busses have proven themselves in north america, but cng busses are much less expensive. Japan does not have access to inexpensive cng, so hydrogen makes more sense. China is the leader for fully electric busses, and austin has a plug in fuel cell buss that gets away with a small 30 kw fuel cell making it less expensive.

 

No fortune telling here, just watching how markets have behaved.

Lower cost, more sales. I don't think anyone would call that an unsafe prediction.

More convenience, more sales. This also has a very safe prediction, we have seen it many times.
It is one of the major reasons electrics had such a large market in the early 1900's.
When the ignition switch took over, increasing convenience and safety, hayburners took over the market quickly.

Less expensive fuel, all else being the same, is pretty much a no brainer.

These are all well established qualities that increase sales. No tea leaves or fortune tellers needed.

 

Well that is the question isn't it. If we at least have methanol (bio or renewable), 10,000 psi fcv doen't make much sense unless we are focused on ghg. If we are focussed on ghg, then phevs and bevs make more sense until prices for fcv and hydrogen drop in some decades.

We have the exxon study that expects at for the next 50 years, at least in the US and Europe we will shift to phevs, but still use a great deal of liquid fuels. China the biggest car market wants nothing to do with hydrogen. Have some of those miracles and yes fuel cells start to make sense, and this could happen in 20 or 30 years, or 100, or never.

The question is how fast gas gets more expensive and how fast batteries prices drop?

 

I do not know why or why not, but thought of Lithium instead of Nickel-metal hydride battery on the FC bus.

 

The tanks and lithium batteries are big on our local bus.

The toyota one only has 9.8kw battery, versus 27kw in the prius. If you are doing 27kw or really 50kw which is what I would use I'd use lithium. The fuel cell is 2x110kw which means you don't need as big of a battery for acceleration, but it really is helpful for regen, and batteries in 2015 are much cheaper than fuel cells.

 

Been there, done that. It's a BUSt.

BC Transit's $90M hydrogen bus fleet to be sold off, converted to diesel - British Columbia - CBC News

 

They had to ship hydrogen from Quebec???

Any break out of the operational costs?

Bob Wilson

 

The DOE has a full breakdown of costs for that and the other North American fuel cell bus trials.

The original plan was to demonstrate low ghg busses, and Quebec was to be temporary. They expected by now renewable hydrogen would be cheaper. Alternatively they could build a nat gas reformer which would drop costs of fuel but do nothing for maintenance costs and you would greatly increase the carbon footprint. Other cities continue to try.