Mirai production begins @ 3/day

Excellent! No waiting!

Bob Wilson

 

On the other hand, NRELs recently updated comprehensive well-to-wheels hydrogen pathways study concluded that a generic FCV getting 68 mpgge (miles per kg h2, essentially) would cause emission of just under 250g per mile of CO2 using h2 from natural gas. A non-plug Prius is 222g.

So, roughly about the same as a 50 mpg Prius or a 47-48 mpg CO2 equivalent 2016 Volt (70% Utility Factor with 50 mile EV range) on US average electricity.

If you adjust the Mirai to account for California's renewable requirement you are probably correct that it gets near the CO2 equivalent of a 60 mpg gasoline car but so does a 2016 Volt on the "California" average electricity rate of about 0.88-0.96 lbs per kWh that fueleconomy.gov seems to use when calculating California emissions (they use about 1.4 lbs per kWh for the U.S. average).

That's based on 2010 data in EPA's eGrid when California's renewable mix (excluding big hydro) was about 15-17%. The renewables mix in the power distributed by the big CA utilities is now about 25% and is required to be 33% by 2020.

If you use the existing 2010 era eGrid-derived emissions for California the 2016 Volt would get a gasoline CO2 equivalent of about 60-62 mpg which will only get better in the next few years (in fact, we know it already has more renewables today).

Or, in other words, the 2016 Volt will have about the same EPA estimated California total CO2 emissions as the Mirai using H2 from NG with 33% renewable H2. And the 2016 Volt will have about the same EPA estimated US total CO2 emissions as the Mirai using H2 from NG and the non-plug 2015 Prius using gasoline.

Tell me again why we are putting all of this money, engineering focus, and infrastructure into fuel cell passenger cars?

 

So you don't need to charge overnight, maintain combustion engine and related components and acutally get no tailpipe emissions. Volt still relies on OPEC.

I will have to look at why GREET is showing H2 prod emissions so high.

 

Charging overnight means not having to go to the hydrogen station...

Changing the engine oil every two years is not that big of a deal. I've done it twice with 110,000 miles on the odometer. I'm still using the original factory engine air filter since the dealer service folks said it is clean.

 

So you don't have to??
I won't buy a car that doesn't allow me to.

The convenience of having a full tank every morning is wonderful.

 

Mirai offers a unique blend of advantages of both gasoline and electric vehicles. It refuels as fast as gas but drives and maintenance free like an EV. Anybody who owns a gas car can own a FCV (provided H2 availability at every gas station). Doing so would secure our energy security as FCV is powered with 100% domestic fuel (either fossil or renewable).

Volt needs a dedicated charging station as well as real estate (garage) to allow charging. It also has the noisy vibrating combustion engine (and fuel) that require maintenance. It has two propulsion systems with mechanical clutches.

You asked why and I answered. There is no need to defend as we both have plugin hybrids. I am surprised that not a lot of thoughts are given into why FCV is better.

 

A lot of thought has been given, and FCV has come up lacking for most cases.
Sure, there are a few cases, mainly fleet vehicles with a central refueling station.

For me, I won't put up with the slow gas or FCV refueling just for the privilege of visiting a gas station.

 

It is the fuel, hydrogen, that is the problem. Use a hydrogen reformer so other hydrogen rich fuels like methanol, methane, or ammonia, can be used and I'll be a happy camper.

Hydrogen by itself is really pretty ugly stuff to deal with and a real materials challenge. Even industrial hydrogen users make it 'on site' versus the missing infrastructure of hydrogen pipes running hundreds of miles.

Bob Wilson

 

When the Prius first came out a fair number of open minded, educated and intelligent people bought them as they saw that it was good. A number of these same people turned to the Leaf and Tesla when they were released as they saw their benefits too.

So why are those same people unconvinced by and questioning the Mirai? Either the majority of early adoptors are suddenly stupid overnight OR the Mirai is designed for someone else? I still think the Mirai is a case of the Emperors New Clothes.

 

Brilliant, GC!

 

1) Both the prius and mirai have distinct looks, but more are utterly turned off by the look of the mirai
2) In the Us and Europe, the prius and the clarity came out both were high tech cars. The mirai does not look as high tech as the tesla S, i3, volt or leaf. The volt, leaf, and prius phv will have new generations before many mirai are even available for lease.
3) Those that might be interested in the $499/month lease price, live in southern california where it will be leased, and like the get off oil idea will overwhelmingly own or rent homes where they could plug in. A plug-in simply seems like a more covient option, where you can wake up with a full tank of fuel every day. Now Lexus poked the bear with its add that you can't drive a i3 to vegas (they edited out the fuel door, actually had the rex in the ad where they could have refueled quickly), the Mirai you can drive from LA to Vegas, you just can't drive it home as there isn't a refueling station planned that will get you back.
4) The prius came out as a median priced car with less cost for fuel. The mirai and tucson fcv are simply too expensive for what it is. While the DOE projects that fuel cells will get cheap at quantities of 500,000 in the charts they put out, they have them at $280/kw if quantities of 20,000/year in 2016 (Looks like toyota will do a 5000 run then). For the mirai 114kw stack that works out to a price of $31,920, and the price of the 2 hydrogen tanks bring it to $35,000. That is about the cost of a 100kwh tesla pack today, and it will cost significantly less when the gigafactory opens. You need to sell these things in the hundreds of thousands a year like plug-ins do to have it make sense, or have breakthroughs to make these smaller quantities of fuel cells less expensive to make. Until then only governments will build fueling stations, and that is a very expensive method to reduce ghg or criteria pollutants, so it is likely in the tens of billions of dollars and not simply billions needed to make these things a sucess.

 

More like a pile driver to crack a nut.

 

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2014/11/importance-bev-hfcev-fact-sheet.pdf

 

Good piece, although I don't agree with it completely.

I especially liked this part,

They should be complimentary technologies. I am surprised at the choice of vehicle Toyota made, and am still sad about the bias CARB is showing.

 

No customers!

 

"PLUG-INS"

 

Toyota Wants FCVs To Be Priced At Diesel-Car Levels

 

Very nice and balanced. I am glad I am not the only voice "defending" the FCVs (as a plugin owner).

I am not joining the pity party but instead wear the "can do" hat.

If someone told me to stuff 8.000 laptop battery cells into a car, I would have said, why bother.

 

Because they downsized it enough to be able to fit into a car.

IMO, CARB bias is not a reason to dismiss a perfectly good technology.

 

Why the about face?
Most of the article is exactly what many people here have been saying?

FCVs work better for larger vehicles and are dramatically limited to specific geographical areas until the infrastructure gets built out.