Why Can't Other Plug-In Hybrids Copy Chevy Volt's All-Electric Running?

5.2 kWh (Prototype)


4.4 kWh (Production)

 

Which won't fix the fact that the current Prius isn't something the typical American wants in a car. Otherwise, sales would have moved up towards C class car territory, and not lingered in the high B area.

The Prius got a $2000 tax deduction before the tax credit. In Japan, Toyota got a direct subsidy equal to half the difference between it and equivalent ICEV since day one, around $6000 to $7000.

And the plugin tax credit has helped lower the price of traction batteries, while their performance has improved, during that time. The non-plugin hybrids that use Li-ion also benefit from this. The credit never specified chemistry; just kWh. NiMH didn't benefit from it because of the patent issue, and Toyota wasn't forced into using it.

The hybrid credit helped in getting some hybrids on the road, but gas prices, mainly in 2008, were probably a bigger push for them. People buying a Prius then weren't doing so because they wanted one, but because of necessity. Some would come to like the car, but generally, buying and driving a car out of necessity sucks, and isn't a good way of growing long term sales.

The hybrid credit didn't really do anything to increase hybrid selection. Admittally, the CARB ZEV program had a big role in forcing some manufacturers to offer something. With hybrids, we didn't start to see real selection until recently. Perhaps because of availability of Li-ion batteries. The cost, and Toyota's and Panasonic's semi-monopoly, of NiMH had them discarding it as an option. I think it might be that semi-monopoly more.

 

This is an interesting graph, not sure why it didn't carry over.. Toyota does not sell the prius phv in ERCT or FRCC. These grids offer lower ghg for plug-ins than the prius familty. ERCOT is #2 and FRCC is #4 in terms of charging infrastructure, and both florida and texas are good markets for hybrids. ERCOT also is very likely to recharge plug-ins with renewable energy.

Instead if we believe the low ghg argument the prius phv is sold in NYLI which is slightly higher if your chart is to believed, but the argument dies in HIMS and HIOA, not only to these two hawaiian grids produce much higher ghg, but make much of the electricity from oil, negating most of the reduce oil use reason. Still although hawaii is one of the worst states to lower ghg or oil use with a plug-in, its still a good state to sell in because of low trip length and high price of gasoline, and increased renewables in the future. But if your argument is toyota plug-ins sells in hawaii not texas because of ghg, it just denying the data. Toyota only sells plug-ins in CARB states. I hope this will change with the gen II phv but toyota seems to be pushing a mainly CARB strategy when it comes to alternatively fueled vehicles in the US. The prius 50 mpg club (liftback, phv, and c) only account for about 1.1% of light vehicle sales in the us.

The other nice thing on this chart is if we look at where plug-ins have been sold over 90% in 46+ mpge(ghg).

As explained before although the $8000 federal fcv expired from failure of the vehicles to sell in the time frame, fcv have $100M/year DOE budget for R&D and commercialization, $220M budget in California for hydrogen stations, $5000/vehicle direct tax credit, 9zev credits (worth approximately $18,000) + hov stickers, this is far higher per vehicle than for plug-ins. It is unlikely renewing the $8000 credit would sell 1 more fcv in the US in the next few years, as toyota is currently planning for exactly 3000, the compliance amount. Subsidies are higher in Japan,so if higher subsidies will sell more cars, I would epect for the short term it to be there.

 

I realize everyone makes their car choices for their own reasons - but still I'm curious. With such a perfectly regular driving pattern as you describe, why not purchase the less expensive (forget that it's roomier) Leaf with its greater than Volt /more efficient ev range .... pocket - the $1,000's price difference ... then just get that once-a-year gasser ride (maybe even the 50mpg Prius) from Dollar rent-a-car. After all - you're only using gas once a year, on that once a year long trip
.

 

I'm not sure about Brian, however in our case we first went to the Volt to cover that "what if" scenario.
After some time, we realized how rarely that situation came up, so now we are an all electric family.

To us, the Volt was our "gateway drug" to pure EV.

 

We used to make 40 mile one way trips up to Concord, hang out at relatives house for a few hours then return, That 80 miles plus maybe running around Concord for dinner pretty much makes Leaf not workable. Can't say I'd want to run around or plan for plugging in when all I want to do is see family for a few hours. Plus, we had to park on the street over there anyway.

Should I have rented a car just to go see family 40 miles away?
No way. But, I just remembered Leafs are likely for the 'more well off' who own multiple cars anyway.

What range can you pick up on some chintzy 110V outlet at a friends house? Probably zilch cause it doesn't have the proper rating.

 

A 110 outlet, wired to code, will get you about 5 miles per hour of being plugged in.
Many Leaf owners are not "more well off", they simply are families that have two cars. Not all that uncommon, however, not universal either.

 

That's confirmation of GM not having understood its audience.

How many others went pure EV after their leases expired?

 

Well, the Prius was my "Gateway drug" to plugins, does that mean Toyota didn't understand their audience?
I don't think so, in either case.

I know of some that replaced their second, gas burning car with a pure EV after getting a Volt.
I know of others that replaced their Volts with BEVs, and others that have two Volts for their family.

 

And how many are waiting for the Bolt?

 

Toyota didn't market a regular Prius as a plugin. It did the opposite, educating people that you don't need to plug it in.

Volt was marketed as an EV with range extender.

Wired to code is not enough. It needs to be 15 amp and dedicated so it is not sharing with a fish tank (wink).

It also must be outdoor because you cannot use extension cord. If it is indoor in the garage, you need someone's permission, well that's either ways.

 

so ... with the bolt and leaf both promising a real world 200 mile range some time real soon - does that mean it's going to be a horse race as to who starts grabbing that market of 200mile reasonably priced ev's first? If so will those vehicles make the PiP & volt passé ?
.

 

For many germans PiP still work well for them to travel on autobahns at highspeed. Volt/Ampera is limited to 100MPH (@mpg?!), physically limited(?!).~
Opel Ampera | Junior Test Driver
Fun comes from praticality.

 

There will definately be a first mover advantage.
That said, a 200 mile BEV won't work for everyone, there will still be plenty of people that prefer a vehicle such as the Volt.

It should lower the prices of short range EVs (70-100 miles) making those competitive without the incentives.

The interesting thing to watch will be to see if GM can get their dealers on board, or if some/many of them are hostile towards electrics. If so, any first mover advantage will quickly evaporate.

 

If I am going to spend the cash to get a car, it's going to cover everything I need it to cover. I'm not spending 25-30K on a car that's not going to do everything I need it to do, then spend more money on a rental whenever I need to go more than 40 miles one way. And, as a side note, the leaf is butt ugly.

For example, my dad lived in Ohio and got sick with cancer and went into emergency operation. If I had a Leaf my departure would have been delayed by a day and I wouldn't have seen my dad before he died. Most of my dad's side of the family lives out of state and it's this very reason why I will not get a pure EV until the range grows to 500+ miles and the reason I want the Volt. So that I have the range when I need it, but don't burn gas unless I have to. The semi sporty electric drive characteristics are a happy plus to getting the Volt.

 

A single car family? We are and love the PiP and what it can do.

 

Mainstream consumers will be attracted to what's practical & affordable, like they always have been.

PiP targets that audience directly.

As nice 200 miles will be, the plug still has some limitations/barriers to overcome to reach ordinary car buyers.

 

Good for you. I don't like it, and don't want it. I've stated my reasons why I don't like it, and why the Volt works for me better than a PIP. Stop trying to convert me it won't work.

 

I remember when my father loss his struggle with cancer. In the event of an emergency, I would have thought nothing of just getting a rental, if I would have had a limited-range EV back then.

The problem with Volt which some people get snippy about is not acknowledging the tradeoffs and representing as a solution for the masses. It isn't, the first-gen clearly proved that. Small & Expensive is not a mainstream vehicle. Sure, it works great for some, but is in no way any competition for the high-volume business-sustaining cars we see on lots today.

Toyota is ultimately striving to reach those ordinary consumers, the ones would otherwise just purchase something else on their showroom floor. That requires careful consideration on priorities, a balance of want & need.

GM focused on want instead. That made it very appealing to a small audience. The rest of their customers just bought a traditional vehicle instead.

 

I was asking if you are keeping your Prius (or will have another gas car), BEV like Leaf would work for you.

In the case of family emergency, just use the Prius.

You have to look at the entire NY state. I doubt Toyota can pick which dealer to sell PiP or not.

Yet, the plugin tax credit has no expiration date. It is good until 200,000 units sold (per manufacturer) and then it starts to phase out by cutting the incentive by half (50%, 25%, 0%).

It is a huge incentive and even the one with dirty gas engine that relies on OPEC, also qualifies.

I think enough is enough. It is time to restructure the incentives. BEVs and FCVs should get higher incentives than PHEVs. The amount shouldn't depend on the battery size because it is picking the winner and is not tech neutral. It should depends on the well-to-wheel emission, including emission to manufacture the vehicle and recycle it at EOL.