Why Can't Other Plug-In Hybrids Copy Chevy Volt's All-Electric Running?

Sure you can, as it illustrates beautifully how it varies depending upon the source of your electricity.
It isn't that complicated. Sure, the Volt isn't as clean as the Leaf, but the pattern still holds.

 

$2.4 bllion was spent to get 1 million EVs on the road by this year. Where are we now? The primary goal was to reduce gasoline consumption. Regular hybrids have cut more gas consumption than plugin cars. It is making progress but for you, as a plugin advocate to criticize FCV that has yet to launch, has no basis.

The other goal was to get BEVs to 300 miles range. We have yet to see 200 miles BEVs.

Mirai will be the first to reach that 300 miles goal (with 100% domestic fuel) and I am surprise there is no applause for it.

I respected your opinion and decision.

I was pointing out that your assessment of PiP was flawed (perhaps Toyota dealer fault). I would've expected you to reassess but instead you got defensive.

 

IIRC gm simply did have enough money to make the engine they wanted for the volt, as they cut costs while heading into bankruptcy. They still managed quite a successful gen I, and got the research they needed for a gen II. The engineers may have started with a design goal of fuel economy, but they simply weren't given the resources. It still is the best fuel economy gm has that isn't a compliance car (spark ev). GM could have bought better engines from a competitor, but that was against their corporate culture.

Chevy looked at its users profiles on on-star and increased battery size so that they would only use the ice on 3% of trips. Now those 3% may be around 30% of miles. That changed the calculation of using a turbo di 3cyclinder like the ford 1L ecoboost. They decided to go with a 1.5 L di 4 cyclinder that can run in atkinson mode along with cooled egr. This is likely a less efficient ice than originally planned on short start up and city driving, but it should mostly be used on long hiwy trips. The choice makes sense given its lower cost and easier to market than a turbo 3. It should have similar efficiency to a toyota hybrid, but remember the gen II volt is heavier, with sticker tires, and less aero dynamic than a prius. The estimate is 41 mpg combined in charge depletion mode, slightly better than the camry hybrid, but my guess is it will use about 35% more gas than the gen IV prius when its in charge depletion mode. Efficiency is one priority, but handling and looks were others. I don't think they did a good job in the looks department on gen II, but it is much better than the leaf.

I think you are underestimating the spending. Federal and state will have spent around $6B by the end of the year. I expect about 420,000 by the end of the year. Or about 42% of a goal that many thought was too aggressive. About another $5B more will be spent to get to 1M in the US. At that point they should be advanced enough to sell unsubsidized in the US.

For Fuel cells the number for state and federal spending is about $3.5B, most of it before much was spent on plug-ins. The comparable goal was tens of thousands by now, and we have hundreds. Fuel cells have reached less than 10% of their goal, and don't seem on track to get to even the reduced goal of 53,000 by end of 2017. I would expect it would take about $100B more to get to 1M vehicles on the road. The Japanese government may spend it. I think it would be foolish for the american government to spend that much, and Japan may be a better less expensive test (higher fuel taxes, shorter driving range so cost of fuel doesn't matter as much, oil imports more of a problem, more concentrated population so fewer fueling stations to server higher percentage of drivers).

Actually the goal was 100 mile range, the fuel cell lobby said you couldn't get a 300 mile range BEV in old epa ratings. Tesla is now shipping the model S 85d, which has a current epa range of 270 miles, far exceeding the 300 mile rating on the old test.

I think the problem for the mirai is the over promise and under deliver. Clarity in 2009 was the proof of concept. The Tucson fuel cell is the first done as a mass production manufacturing, leased at 265 mile range. The mirai's claim to fame is it gets a tiny bit more range than the tucson, in a package much like the clarity. Mirai is supposed to be the first one sold, but even toyota says they expect over 90% to be leased, and they will only build 5700 for the entire world in the first 3 years.

 

We need to remind people of the single-goal approach GM took.

The fact that Toyota chose to address several goals all at the same time... cost... emissions... cargo/passenger room... in addition to improved gas consumption... with the most efficient use of electricity included... is often overlooked.

Unfortunately, there's a past of outright dismissal too, in which we had to deal with "vastly superior" claims as a result. That single-mindedness of MPG with no regard for other priorities is something new Volt supporters must now deal with. Their predecessors set a terrible precedent that they have no choice but to address.

 

Well actually shifting unhealthy emissions from cars does reduce the negative health effects. In most states it eliminates the negative effects completely because of the cap and trade of emissions. 28 states are part of the CAIR program, which means emissions are capped independant of power used. As more power is consumed the EPA forces stricter emissions. Texas TCEQ has a similar cap, and EPA is using interstate pollution rules to lower total unhealthy pollution bellow the caps even as texas population grows, bringing it to 29. California went with the long tailpipe, so the unhealthy pollutants are not produced in populated areas of the state, but in low population areas of Utah and Arizona, and the plan is now to stop buying this power in the near future. I'm sure most of the remaining 20 also have such programs.

Again if you look at the graph you posted, and I repeated, you would see that 60% of the population now lives in areas where buying an average plug-in will produce less ghg than the most efficient car sold in the US. Most of the rest can purchase or build power that will produce less ghg than the most efficient car sold in the US. We can also look at history, and say over 90% of plug-in buyers either live in areas that produce lower ghg or purchase green power that produces less ghg in the average plug-in than the most efficient gasoline powered car.

Now I did read your statement in context, which was using the average grid in 2009 a 100 mpge plug-in will produce more ghg than the most efficient 50 mpg car. Now this statement is true, but not very useful, as the assumptions of plug-in cars distributed evenly to the "average" 2009 grid is quite unlikely in the future, and certainly untrue today.

So yes points, I agree with your statement, I just think you need to go beyond simplistic assumptions that make plug-ins look much worse than they are. Again only 1.1% of cars sold in the US last year were 50 mpg (prius liftback, prius c, and prius phv) and most of those were sold to people whose households electricity produced far less ghg than the average US grid.

+1

well at least we agree to something

Actually, I pulled out the context because I wasn't sure. It is average plug-in efficiency as UCS definied it. They used 104 mpge, current leaf is 117 mpge, volt 98mpge, i3-rex 117 mpge, etc. Did you read my post, or just skim it? I adjusted the 104 down to your hypothetical 100. The gen II volt is projected to be 102 mpge, which turns out to be exactly 50 mpg ghg gasoline equivelant in 2013 ercot and florida. Of course the grid is getting cleaner so in charge depletion mode, again over 60% of the population will produce less ghg than a 50 mpg gasoline car.

Let's go with Onstar's average utilization of all volts @62%, epa 98mpge and 37 mpg, and florida and texas ghg profile from UCS.

51 * 98/104 = 48

100 / (62/48+38/37) = 43 miles on the equivelant ghg of a gallon of gasoline.

leaf
51 * 117/104 = 57 miles on the equivelant ghg of a gallon of gasoline.

Next gen volt if we believe 102mpge and 41 mpg with a utilization rate of 70% = 47 miles on the equivalent ghg of a gallon of gasoline.

Not many cars get more than 47 mpg, lets say less than 2% next year, The gen IV prius and leaf and i3 should do much better than a volt, but 47 is pretty good why restrict choices to only the prius family? Toyota makes most of its profit on vehicles that get bellow 31 mpg.

 

First, a correction, the Volt only needs 10hrs to charge from a 15amp outlet. With most people away from home for maybe 10hrs a day for work, that is plenty of time to charge the car for the next day. Long trips it refuels as quickly as any other car.

Next, you are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good, and suffering from the Prius Fallacy. You are benchmarking nearly everything against the Prius. I am not saying we shouldn't push for cars of the Prius' capabilities, but we shouldn't discard those that are an improvement because they aren't as good.

The Prius is an outlier. Other hybrids getting close to it's fuel economy is a recent thing. Its sales are comparable to some ICE cars, but it only really dominates in the hybrid segment. A segment that struggles to get 3% of annual car sales.

Meanwhile, the average new car sold in the US gets 24.1mpg and 480g/mi CO2. Numbers pulled up by the hybrids and plugins sold. Which means 95% or more of the cars sold average worse than that.

Yet you want to remove government supports for plugins, and limit where they are available, because they don't get the fuel economy or emit as little CO2 as the Prius. Even though they are an improvement over what just about everything else people are buying.

You need yo step back, look at the big picture, and reassess what your goals really are.

As for the Mirai, great Toyota has been able to drop the price. It is still $57k+ with leases around $400/month. That alone is why most aren't interested. Being range constrained is why the Tesla has more interest. The numbers where it can be driven will remain small for awhile. That is why there is more activity in the gen4 speculation threads with no info from Toyota than the FCV ones.

Then there is the politics around them which overlooks plugins as a solution until they get to the point where people interested. It's going with the long shot and ignoring the easy fixes. Those fixes may not be ideal but they better than the status quo.

 

Yet, your own over simplistic claims about market are just fine?

The point is that is just one of many aspects of appeal.

Consumers will not... and this has been overwhelmingly confirmed... purchase based on a single strength. Balance is absolutely essential.

 

Folks, lets relax and not get personal.

We want lots of options.

We want green cars, green from power source to power consumption.

Arguing over cars that aren't here yet is futile. Lets wait and see what they are like in the real world, how many are purchased for whatever reason.

I'm sure we would all rather someone purchased a somewhat green car not our personal favorite than they bought one of the 50% of cars bought in 2014 that got less than 20 MPG (Motor Trend yesterday).

I didn't buy the most MPG car available to me at the time I bought, my son did. Different set of needs/wants. Both are 100% better than what we drove before (actually 100% and 250%). The planet wins from both decisions and that they are different is OK.

 

That's what caused problems with the first-generation offerings.

Rather than clearly identifying goals, then addressing them directly, that stance was taken.

Not being proactive welcomes trouble to come. Allowing that same mistake to be repeated is even worse.

 

Can you point out such a past statement, we can analyse how it has done. Please be specific, and if I was wrong, I'll freely admit it. If I have made such a "claim" in the past, it certainly would not invalidate the UCS study or the hybridcars dashboard sales figures.

um, if you read my full comments on this, you would realize that I don't think ghg is one of the big drivers for adoption of plug-ins, nor do I think having lower unhealthy pollution than a hybrid is a driving factor, hybrids are low enough. Certainly if your criteria is ghg though you should do the work to figure out the impact.

well you and I have a difference of opinion of what balance is ;-) and what essential is.

To me the most successful plug-in to date is the Tesla model S. This is a desirable car mainly because it doesn't try to compromise to balance. It's priorities are to use the bev strengths to build a great sports sedan. Acceleration, Range, and handling were the primary requirements, and costs were only considered after they got that right. Efficiency is high, simply because the best handling for the range meant that efficiency was a high priority, but not high enough to have very low rolling resistant tires or low weight. As battery prices decrease, they will build the model 3 that tries to keep all these things high, but will compromise to bring costs down.

The gen II volt seems to be a much better volt than the gen I. GM did its homework and looks like they are increasing range so that 97% of the trips are done on batteries alone. The engine is both more powerful and more efficient. The interior looks much more modern and better. Still as I said in the post you quoted, I don't think the 2+2 will sell well unless it is really fast. The volt is faster, but its no sporty accleration demon. Its fairly ballanced between cost and efficiency, but its not an exciting car. It will increase sales over the gen I and likely be profitable, but GM needs to put the drive in a better car ;-)

The prius phv, well it seems to be focused on low ghg and high gas mileage. Either toyota marketing did a poor job selling it and/or its not what the market is demanding. Most polled want more electric range as they did in the leaf and volt. The gen II has more potential if toyota listens, and markets better, but we don't know much other than it won't be out until the end of next year.

 

Well worth repeating!

Thanks to Prius studies, the real issue is total vehicle drag and inefficiency:

• rolling drag from tires and bearings
• rolling drag from the transmission stirring and torque converters
• aerodynamic drag from poor after-body
• aerodynamic drag from flow separation
• aerodynamic drag from excess cooling air
• engines running in inefficient, thermal dynamic power settings
• engines burning fuel when they should be off
• inefficient air conditioners
• inefficient power steering and brakes

Electricity is the ultimate flex fuel but if the vehicle converts a high proportion to heat instead of transport, it is a waste.

As for Volt 2.0, I prefer to wait for the EPA metrics as there likely to be a lot of 'tweaks' between product announcement and production. After all, the Ford hybrid MPG was revised downward after release.

Bob Wilson

 

As I've posted before - that argument is not only old and worn out, it's dishonestly inaccurate;

Fossil Fuels Are Way More Expensive Than You Think
.
but if the goal is to keep that story going & it's working for you - carry on
Shifting emissions?
.

 

That's called misleading through omission. Some would identify sighting only the extremes as cherry-picking. Nothing in between is a red-flag, a warning of potential bias.

The plug-in Prius is considerably cleaner than the average American car, but that information is conveniently not mentioned. Why wasn't it?

We've seen reports showing emission levels, but never anything with respect to supposed damage. How is that actually quantified? What criteria is taken into consideration? Where is the detail?

In other words, don't take a single vague report at face value. The real story is in the detail... or lack there of.

 

Here is the paper, complete with references and methodology.
The social cost of atmospheric release - Online First - Springer

 

is there another plug in hybrid that comes close to volts battery size?

 

If you consider the i3 with optional range extender a plugin hybrid, that would be a larger battery.
Otherwise, I think the Fords would be the closest.

 

what percent of volt are we talking? and lets take weight/size into consideration.

 

Looks like GM has finally seen the light and will now be following the same path they heavily campaigned against for over a decade.

Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid Derives Technology from Volt

In other words, the large & expensive battery in a small car clearly isn't appealing to a wide audience. That question of "Who?" has overwhelmingly been answered. GM was losing a massive number of customers on the showroom floor and has finally taken a stance to properly address that.

All the nonsense, the rhetoric, the hype, the spin, and the propaganda has been confirmed as not the mainstream solution it was promised to be. Many of us will feel quite vindicated as news of this spreads. We were attacked on the premise this would never happen. The belief that blending was a waste & futile path to follow is now being taken by the most outspoken of opponents.

Irony. Isn't is great?

 

Nope. This is simply a hybrid malibu, using some of the same software and design elements of the volt. Technology transfer. It is very close to the camry hybrid and fusion hybrid in terms of design. Take your midsize 4 door sedan, add 2 motors and a psd type transmission. It has the cooled egr and ehr of the camry and the grill shutters of the fusion. Unfortunately the malibu is not nearly as nice a car to start with as the camry or fusion, but at least gm has a full hybrid to join those two, the sonata, and accord.

Perhaps this is really the death of the gm mild hybrid, and gm could use volt tech in larger vehicles to replace two mode, that again was an absolute failure.

There are supposed to be future gm vehicles that are using phev technology from the launch of the volt, but his is not one of them.

GM is spreading its volt R&D through the product line
ev tech in the spark and future bolt (hate that name)
hybrid tech in the malibu.

We should see more. The old rumors were a cross over vehicle phev. That would be more expensive than a volt, but likely less than an outlander phev.

 

... and the i3 EU version does another one better than volt - i3's programming allows drivers to run it in BLENDED, or gas 1st, besides typical all EV 1st.
.