Why Can't Other Plug-In Hybrids Copy Chevy Volt's All-Electric Running?

Denial.

 

Huh?

What you post something wrong, I'm guessing accidentally, then when it is pointed out don't even read the article you posted?
The future malibu is a hybrid, not a phev.

 

John lives in an alternate universe, that's all.
Bagdad Bob would be proud

 

I think he's trying to claim that GM is admitting the Volt was a mistake by not making the new Malibu hybrid an EREV. I'm not really sure though.

 

I never said anything about PHEV.

Everytime I post something about mainstream consumers, high-volume profitable sales, and the importance of the showroom floor sales, it's just assumed that I somehow was talking about plugging in.Read what I posted again, carefully this time.btw, the sentiment on the big GM is quite different. No denial or misinterpretation or assumptions there.Goals.

 

Yes, with CARB politics the i3-rex was defeatured in the US with a smaller fuel tank and lack of driver control over the ice. For this CARB gives bmw money in the form of zev credits, but it is worse for the buyers.

The volt does have a hold mode to run in charge sustain mode (hybrid mode) to save electricity for later. I can't remember what year this was added. What the volt doesn't have that the i8 and porsche 918 have are a power mode. That might help sales, but would cost a little more money and of course would probably confuse dealers that already don't quite understand the car. volt's gas tank is too big for it to get the carb credits, so it can have the features in the US ;-)

Huh, I did again and come to the same conclusion. Perhaps you could be more clear in your posts. Reread yiour post, then my post, and explain how your follow up - "Denial" makes any sense at all. This is in a thread about the volt not the malibu after all.

Instead of posting "denial" in response to me, why don't you explain your point if you have one. Obviously if you think my response misunderstands your point, its not denying it. Try to add to understanding instead of these short statements that seemed to me that you thought I was denying that the malibu was a replacement for the volt, well it seems like you don't think so now either. So what do you want us to understand.

GM's old brass - Lutz and Wagoneer, admitted that they underinvested in hybrid technology, before bankrupcy, before the volt shipped to customer one. They concentrated too much on SUV's and hydrogen.

The malibu is not gm's first hybrid, or even their 4th, but none have been successful so far. Perhaps using R&D from the volt project the malibu hybrid will be more successful, but its going up against tough competition, as it is the 5th car in the group, and camry, fusion, and sonata are already on gen II.

The malibu hybrid does not replace the volt. It doesn't spell a new direction. Its just one of the cars that gm can make less expensively and better because of the volt. I really don't expect that it will do all that well. Its a way to use volt tech to help meet cafe requirements.

 

The thread asks the question why. Reasons have been provided. That is on-topic.

It's not all about technical. No matter how much business reason is avoided, it still comes down to that in the end.

No one ever said anything about replacement either.

There will be many choices. Some will get more resources devoted than others. The mainstream (high-volume business-sustaining) vehicles will be those. That's why.

 

Again how is denial an appropriate response.

I really have been trying to treat you with respect, but this rubbish half answers need to stop.

If your point on the thread on phevs is that "the malibu hybrid using some of the tech developed in the volt project will be more mainstream than the gen II volt." Well probably. I don't think anyone is denying that. The fusion and camry hybrids are already mainstream, so even if this malibu sells very few units it will probably be "more mainstream" because it is extremely similar to those two in technology and operating mode. I think the biggest differences are how the motors and ice are hooked to the psd and chevy is using tech elements from both. THe main thing the volt contributed here was chevy figuring out how to do this well without violating ford and toyota patents.

so would a clear response be so hard. I don't think its a wow point, or even controversial, but I hope you understand nothing in my post was trying to pit the volt against the camry hybrid. I also see nothing in your post that supported the malibu hybrid has gm "admitting" to something.

 

Ford was playing fast and loose with the rules. They also had to revise a couple non-hybrids.
I am unaware of any mpg shenanigans on GM's part in regard to the current Volt, or any vehicle recently. The final production version could have tweaks, but I don't see a large difference happening between the released numbers and official ones. the smart thing would be to under estimate the released numbers to not hurt current Volt sales as much.

The upcoming Mitsubishi SUV PHV may also be close.

Didn't the Volt get the hold mode in its second model year in North America? Or do you mean the Europe i3 can be set to default to hybrid mode on start up?
If the i3 was ever under consideration for me, I'd look into whether a BMW tuner could unlock the EU controls.

GM's ICEVs have been competitive on mpg within their respective segments. A strong hybrid version of Malibu means they'll finally have something for the mid-size hybrid sedan one that has expanded. A little late, but they may have been waiting on the new family of engines. With the overall hybrid segment being a small percentage of overall sales, not having one up until now doesn't mean GM was ignoring the 'mainstream' market. The ICEV is still the mainstream.

Neither does it mean that GM doesn't think the Volt or an EREV won't be a sales success. It outsold all the Scion models individually last year. Toyota's youth brand doesn't look like it is going 'mainstream' by that metric.

GM's mild hybrid system may come around again as a low cost option when the CAFE targets increase. Shouldn't we be seeing some 48 volt systems on production cars soon?
.

 

No matter how many times HIGH-VOLUME, BUSINESS-SUSTAINING sales are mentioned, there's always someone who believes something else was actually stated.

Fact is, those sales have been lost and steps are being taken to prevent further losses. The showroom floor conquest traditional vehicles like Malibu, Cruze, and Equinox have has been overwhelming.

It has nothing to do with having a plug or battery-size. It's the reality of needing to make a profit.

 

And the hydraulic by Chrysler or the air-hydraulic by Peugeot-Citroen?

 

Once again John, this is meaningless.
No new car is high-volume, business sustaining from day one.
All cars take time to reach that level after being introduced for the first time.

Just how much time that takes can make the difference between a successful and unsuccessful product.
The Volt seems to be on pace to do this in about 5-6 years.
The Prius did it in about 7-8 years.
The Model S reached business sustaining in about 3 years, but not the definition you have for high volume.

The Mirai should hit that in about 25-35 years.

your approach seems to be, if Toyota does it, it is the smartest move ever, if GM does it, it is the absolute worst decision ever.
("It" being any possible idea or product under the sun)

 

Every car company tries to do R&D for future cars. We are in a thread about plug-ins, which looks to be about break even for gm in the second generation. I don't think anyone thinks that today, in 2015, car companies like GM, Ford and Toyota aren't making money hand over fist on Trucks and SUVs. Without their Trucks and SUVs ford couldn't even afford to do any R&D on hybrids. The only company I see making big profits on hybrids today is Toyota, so no the malibu hybrid is not going to be a HIGH-VOLUME BUSINESS-SUSTAINING car for GM. SO FORGIVE US FOR NOT UNDERSTANDING THAT THAT WAS YOUR POINT. It was about as clear as the air in shanghai ;-)

I don't think this, the malibu hybrid, will do it for gm in the near term. In the longer term I see plug-ins being more profitable for them than hybrids, but that is just a mater of opinion. No one knows the future.

GM stated that the volt was getting a high percentage of conquest sales from other brands. We can not expect the malibu hybrid to do that, as GM's main competitors already have hybrids in that space. The volt probably drew higher sales for the cruze and malibu, just as the prius drew more toyota sales for the corolla and camry. GM certainly admitted that they blew it earlier on not investing more R&D in hybrids, but that was before they even released the volt. The volt project did invest some R&D money on hybrids... So I guess good for them?

Again I disagree that malibu hybrid will be the profitable course for gm. While its better than the malibu eco or the two mode, all it does is play catchup to toyota, ford, hydundai, and honda. Everyone else has a hybrid mid size four door sedan, it was time for gm. But that is a future projection.
Thank you for more clearly stating your point though. That was helpful.

 

I certainly feel vindicated since I have been predicting this outcome in spite of GM's recent denials that they were going to make non-plugin hybrids.

This is what I and my co-authors wrote a month ago in the conclusion of our detailed technical description of the new transmission design:

Gen 2 Volt Transmission Operating Modes Explained

The new Malibu hybrid transmission is very likely the same as the new Volt transmission with trivial changes. A small-battery non-plugin hybrid doesn't need the one-way clutch on the first planetary gear set. Also, I would not be surprised if they made some tweaks to the motor windings which GM has said are easy to make given their manufacturing techniques. The Malibu and Volt transmissions will very likely be made on the same factory line in the US.

The new transmission is probably inherently cheaper than the Toyota and Ford transmissions due to the large reduction in rare earth metals in the motors. Sharing the design and essentially all parts between the Malibu and Volt will allow per-unit cost reductions from volume manufacturing. I expect Toyota to make a similar change to reduce rare earth metals as part of their pending 4th generation design.

Their estimated 45 mpg combined EPA is very good and is substantially higher than the Toyota and Ford powertrains of similar power used on similar sized vehicles. It will be interesting to see how they price it. I'm guessing they will be a little bit aggressive in order to help grab a significant portion of hybrid sales and avoid the past market failure of the 2-mode.

 

this type of hybrid tranny may do as well as the new hyacc.

 

Of course, since I never said that, nor is it even relevant.

If an automaker is against the technology, there will never be a day one.

The point is that has finally changed, there is now an endorsement for the very thing they not too long ago been strongly opposed to.

 

I don't follow the "inherently cheaper" transmission. Ford and Toyota have brought psd production in house, and amortized the equipment over large volumes of cars. GM I believe are still buying parts from aisin, which both of the other companies moved away from.

So we have the motors.
Rare Earths Fall as Toyota Develops Alternatives: Commodities - Bloomberg Business

I'm sure next gen of prius, camry hybrid, fusion (hybrid/energi), and c-max (hybrid/energi) will use rare earths only where they are cost effective. Engineers at ford and toyota, and their suppliers know how to eliminate them completely, but still find small amounts useful.

 

Technically, they are both are air-hydraulic. liquid can't be compressed, so there is a pocket of nitrogen that acts as a spring to store excess and captured energy as the battery does in an electric hybrid.

I guess they could use a piston with an actual spring, but a gas bubble is lighter and more reliable. A serial hydraulic hybrid could skip the bubble, but then it wouldn't have regen braking or the ability to store excess energy from the engine.

These systems have already been on the work in some delivery vans, and I think the first systems were developed under PNGV. Aside from bulkiness, an issue for consumer level vehicles is noise. The aclimator for the gen2 brake system could be heard inside the cabin by the driver, and that one would be tiny compared to would a hydraulic hybrid would use.

Is Scion a money pit for Toyota then? The Volt sold more than any of the Scion models last here. Being mostly reskinned Toyotas, the Scions don't have to sell has many to reach business-sustaining levels. Two of them are also on their second generation. The Volt is just coming up to its second generation, but R&D costs aside, the first gen was likely sustainable in terms of production costs to price. Factoring in the R&D costs, the second generation will likely get there. Sharing IP and parts with a Malibu hybrid will help that out. The tax credit needs to be considered for future, sustainable sales, but we don't know GM's exact production costs for the battery and car. Based on the first gen Volt's sales, the tax credits will last into the middle of the second's life cycle. Giving time beyond its initial introduction to tackle costs.

My main point though, is that high volume sales aren't needed for a car model to be profitable.

If you want high volume sales in order to have bigger impact on reducing gas consumption, then no hybrid beyond the Prius has achieved this, and some of them are well into their second generations. Then even the Prius only sells at half the rate of the Corolla and Camry ICE. As profit driven corporations, car companies aren't going to focus on reducing gas consumption much more beyond what is needed to meet outside regulations and consumer desire.

How do we know GM was strongly opposed to it, and not 'playing with their cards close to their chest' as a certain other company gets praise for?

 

overt statements by bob klutz.

 

We know that in the mid 2000s the A$$hats in GM's leadership, Rick Wagoner and Bob Lutz opposed hybrids in cars because they thought they were just marketing hype. They thought hybrids would only make money in expensive vehicles that could hide the costs, hence the two-mode Indeed most of the profits that Toyota has made from the hybrid, come from accounting for the prius's enhancing the toyota brand, and driving sales of non hybrid vehicles inside the brand. The lame GM attempts at Fuel Cells and two mode, the crushed ev-1, along with bashing the prius, helped tarnish the gm image. The prius eventually became profitable on its own, not just as a better way to build the toyota brand. Ofcourse Wagoner and Lutz admitted as much before the first volt was ever sold, and neither is still at the company. I'm not sure why wagner's mia culpa was not the celebration point for those with ruffled feathers. Here it is from 2009.
The Rick Wagoner vehicles: Hits and misses - latimes

The new gm post bankrupcy, has not sounded opposed to hybrid at all. They simply have been far behind in development, from underinvestment in R&D. Let's face it the hybrid malibu wouldn't have helped the tarnished gm image anymore than the honda insight was a prius killer. The volt R&D seems to have trickled down to the malibu hybrid though.

Oh and to be sure no one in 2009 thought the volt would be profitable in the short term. Here is mention at the end of the LA times article.