Edmunds: Hybrid and Electric Owner Loyalty

In the case of the Volt, the preponderance of leases explains a lot.

 

But the Prius still 'sells' more units in a given year, and is near the end of its third generation, so there are more out there to be traded in.

All the article gave us is that more hybrids and electrics are being traded in for SUVs. Not which models, or if they were leased just 3 years ago, or initially bought new during the 2008 gas price hike.

 

^^ If you are saying that the article is crappy, you will get no argument from me.

While the trend data is interesting, it should be put in context. So we see from the data that a person trading in a non-ALT-fuel vehicle is 50% more likely to buy an SUV than a person trading in an ALT-fuel vehicle. Given the low price of fuel these days, that suggests that a strong enviro motivation remains.

 

The first thing I would note is the average car in the US now is over 10 years old. Less than 10% of hybrids are 10 years old, most are less than 7 years old. That leaves a very small population of hybrids being traded in each year. I wouldn't read much at all into statistics of small numbers. If over 95% of trade ins are for conventional cars, and only 55% of hybrid owners trade in for conventional cars, then the problem isn't loyatly, its the take rate for hybrids. We probably are seeing people that traded in an SUV during cash for clunkers, to buy a hybrid, now trading in that hybrid to buy a more efficient than the last trade in SUV.

The only country where tax structure and tastes go majorly gasoline hybrid is Japan. Installed base is growing, but still only about 4M out of 70M cars. The US and China look like they will grow hybrids long term because of regulations, but regulation don't look like they will grow them fast. Europe seems destined to only have a tiny population of hybrid cars.

Well it is true that the US consumes just a little less than 20% of the oil, today, but that percentage is falling slowly. If you look at the top 5% of oil users they probably consume around 40% of the oil, but are spread between countries. If we look out at oil consumption for the next 20 years the amount of growth is really mainly a factor of growth in asia, versus decline in Europe and North America. China will soon surpass the US in oil imports but US leads in use. China is number one in coal imports and use. Japan is number 1 in natural gas imports, number 2 in coal imports, and number 3 in oil imports.

China, Japan, and the US have the most to lose from increased oil use, but right now north american oil production, and lower than expected European and Chinese oil demand have temporarily hurt opec's monopoly pricing. I am sure Saudi wants lower oil prices to lower north american and Russian oil production, and increase world wide oil demand.

 

Prius has a primary market and is sold in >80 countries, can survive low gas prices in the U.S.

Japan March 2015
Toyota Aqua -- 30,414
Toyota Prius -- 18,605

Japan 2014 total sales
2014 toyota aqua – 233,209
2014 toyota prius – 183,614

 

herein lies irony. It takes cheep oil to keep everything humming along - from paint, to fertilizer, transportation, asphalt, chemicals, heat, etc etc. When fossil fuel supplies are tight, and prices are high, the machine sputters - which drops demand. For now, there's surplus fuel. As the sayin goes, "Eat drink & be merry" ....
.

 

I would love to see data broken up by manufacturer, or at the very least, Hybrids and plugin vehicles.
I know of virtually no plugin owners that have gone back to gas.

When they lump the hybrids and electrics together, you minimize the hybrid losses and increase the electric losses.

 

This is from the comments section where they clarified some data.

Note this is incredibly sparse data. 3 year old volts(3915) and leafs(1733) coming off lease in Q1 would have been sold in Q1 2012, of course some of these were sold and not leased, and very few of the 2011 cars would have traded hands in the first quarter. A whole year of sale might be a decent data point, but not a very early quarter. Very few other plug-ins would have traded hands in Q1 2015
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

First I would say the US is much less dependant on oil than in 1973, when OPEC first used oil black mail. It is more dependant than is good for economic or national security. Back then the average car got 12 mpg, and oil was used for a great deal of home heating and electricity.
U.S. vehicle fuel efficiency has increased only 3 mpg in 80 years

The us is dependant on cheap energy, but the growth in energy in the US is natural gas and renewables. Oil and coal are both declining.

World wide coal and oil are still expanding, but these are the slowest fossil fuels, oil because of price, coal because of environmental concerns.

 

Bob, exactly. Most of my cars have been held on to for at least 5 years - and only 2 of them have been financed. This is my first Toyota - coming from a Ford supportive family. Toyota, I have heard, get 250,000-300,000 miles before needing a major repair or breaking down beyond affordable repair. I'm eager to see how long I can get my pretty baby Mystique (Prius) to live. That's what life is all about...making memories.

 

The point is sales. Media attention isn't necessary. In fact, that would be out of the ordinary for high-volume vehicles.

Reaching everyday consumers means competition in a much different manner than early and even secondary adopters.

 

absolutely. you can see them right here, whining that they bought the wrong car, because they thought they'd save money. but they're upside down now and can't crawl out from under to get to the suv dealer.

 

To be honest I am struggling with sticking with a hybrid let alone move to a plugin. I don't just want high MPG(e)s, I want a very well balanced car at reasonable value.
I am bitterly disappointed with the Camry / hybrid as it would seem to be a natural step up for this 6'2" guy, but is so NOT going to happen with this generation.

 

bitterly disappointed is a strong emotion.

 

Lot of people like big vehicles. Some moviegoers see the big Black CIA type Suburbans roll up to take over the scene and probably think, ah man I just want one of those. Lot of people want to sit up higher in their vehicle and have a better view all around, they get an SUV. Parents with young children want a bigger, safer vehicle in case of an accident. Commuting solo in such a vehicle is wasteful.

I don't expect families to squash themselves into a liftback or put up with the tepid power of a Prius v.
I'm very interested to see the Rav4 Hybrid come out. It will have a lot more power and pickup than Prius (and AWD!) and IMO, the new Rav4s just look ace, inside and out. But they will be pricey. Rav4 XLE's are in the 26 to $27k range so the hybri$version will be about $30k to start. Rav4 FWDs get 26 combined and the AWD is 25 mpg. Hybrid hopefully comes in at 35 for FWD and 34 for AWD. Tough sell for $3.5k more.

I pulled in garage after work with 59.x mpg for the day, 67F , dry.

Wait til next year with the uncertainty of a new administration, presidential election. Gas prices will be UP.

 

I don't even like pumping 20 gallons into a vehicle and I have to do it sometimes. Don't like hanging around the gas station very long. 9.x gallons to fill is ok for now.

 

.... personally I am thinking a lot of new Plug_in "buyers" since 2012 debut of Plug_ins went with 3-yr Leases to hedge on it. So we are getting close to when some of those leases are up.

 

I'll be buying a second vehicle, 2015 F150.

I do a lot of city driving for work, but if that changes I wouldn't mind switching to a non hybrid with good highway millage.

 

Plugins made their debut at the end of 2010.
Many leases have already made their way to the used market.
You can buy used Volts and Leafs between $10k and $20k.

 

can i have your screen name when you leave?

 

Ha ha ha Gollum.