Idaho National Lab: Volt vs EVs

"In the Chevy Volt’s early days, GM caught flak for declaring it an “extended-range electric vehicle” and not simply a plug-in hybrid, but this week the Idaho National Laboratory verified real-world drivers annually traveled 94-percent as far gas-free as did Nissan Leaf drivers."

AND a whole lot of non EV miles, too.

Best not to read too much into the statement. Different groups of owners who self-select based on their own driving patterns. I am not surprised though to hear that on average 50% of the LEAF battery is under-utilized. I also have to wonder whether the '~ 40 miles between charges' is an artefact. Imagine someone who takes 10 mile trips. It would not surprise me to learn that these owners charge up when the battery is half full. Either way, people are paying for a lot of battery 'just in case.' This is a true Achilles heel of BEV compared to plug-ins.

The same can be said for big engines in conventional cars too, or the ICE in a plug-in, but the costs are quite a bit less. This is why I am most partial to the BMW approach: big enough battery to cover 90%+ of days, small and cheap ICE to cover the difference. If electricity was clean, this is a great path towards massive reduction of fossil fuel use in cars.

 

That's why the WHO question was so important.

The true competition is the rest of the automaker's product-line, not other plug-in vehicles.

 

Again with this question John? None of us on this forum work for gm. You need to ask that somewhere else.

But we can say from surveys, sales, all the information, that the EVER message was confusing, but the idea of having a adequately powered pure ev mode and a conveniently refueled hybrid mode is highly desired. In fact the best information was people were willing to pay for even more range, and the next gen volt added that and better handling. The general car design on the delta II platform may be more of the a problem than the gen II voltec formula 50 mile epa ev range with a driver selectable hybrid mode that operates on longer trips. I almost think a higher powered sport mode might help, as might better aerodynamics and battery packaging. Voltec power technology could be put in another larger car that may sell better.

The small battery message for "efficiency" is even more confusing, and a worse marketing fail. Now some of this looks like botched pr, bad advertising messaging, and poor dealer training. We have heard about problems with all these things, but ... The toyota team has said that message is a hard sell. I don't think other manufacturers will try to go down this route unless they see toyota find a way to make it successful. We have heard from toyota that they are ending production in June, and not starting again until the car is redesigned. I think they will do better with that one, but I bet we will see a more capable ev mode.

The leaf probably is the most disappointing in terms of sales. Nissan did do refreshes to make it sell better, but they had the highest expectations and investment. Different looks and longer range are what nissan is hearing they need to change.

Yep absolutely, but how do you measure how successful it has been at replacing other cars. If a car doesn't sell no one is trading in oil on cars for it. On paper that camry hybrid or accord hybrid look more like the american market but more people trade in for prii than these cars.

The volt until the announcement of the gen II was the best selling plug-in in the US. That means more people got out of their regular ice cars to get into one. Owner satisfaction is very high, higher than any other car in its price range.

World wide, in Japan and Europe the best selling plug-in is the leaf. Note this has a bigger not a smaller battery than the volt ;-) this has the most japanese and europeans getting out of their oil powered cars.

Japan and europe's surprise success is the 12 kwh eAWD outlander phev. Perhaps GM would be more successful if they added a voltec powered eAWD crossover.

The most successful plug-in car, selling $940M in the first quarter with a 27% profit margin is the Tesla Model S. This is the most popular plug-in in the US this year. The more market centric model 3 is planned for the end of 2017, but I'm not expecting it until 2018. That seems to be the product the market is demanding. In the meantime we should get the X luxury SUV with eAWD.

 

I don't know. It looks like paid content and I don't subscribe or wish to pay for consumer reports opinions. CR certainly hasn't issued press releases hating on the volt as they have on the prius c.

JD powers, Edmunds, and Consumer reports have all reported on the high user satisfaction of the Tesla S (highest) and volt (highest except for luxury and sport cars. The prius and leaf also have high user satisfaction, but volt is higher than prius which is higher than the leaf. User satisfaction are quite different than reliability, and prius reliability would top this list.

 

No one is asking. We already have the answer. The mistake of misunderstanding audience was a lesson learned the hard way by GM.

 

Avoiding the need to clearance inventory is good business.

As for doing better, that's like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow. We already know there are battery, motor, controller, and software improvements on the way.

Again, focus should be on what was learned from the WHO question.

 

Thanks for clarifying.
You have to remember the Wagoner Lutz team that ran gm and came up with the volt, are no longer with the company. In 20/20 hindsight they could have done better, but it is one of the best things they did at gm. If there worst mistake was expectations on the volt they would probably both still be at the company.

How does it compare

a) bankrupted the company
b) crushed ev-1 (both admitted this was bad mistake)
c) Underinvested in hybrids (both admitted this was a bad mistake)
d) Threw billions down the fuel cell rat hole.(lutz claims this was all wagoner's fault)
e) kept huge dealership network that forced them to maintain too many divisions to bleed money (bankruptcy court)
f) Incompetent running of european operations that still bleed billions.

So I have to commend the new management team for doing as well with the company as they have. Killing the volt project would have been a huge mistake. Most of the money was already invested and this gen II looks like it will turn a profit, but not set the any sales records. Killing it would have left gm with another crushed ev1.If they leverage the tech right they will put it into other hybrids and phevs

Mistakes post bankruptcy management made
1) Allowing this ignition key problem to fester and rot for more years. Its a sign the deadwood is still trying to sink the company.
2) Not killing gm in europe and just taken a loss. They seem to average losing $1B per year there, $1.37 billion last year. Every year they say they can fix it then continue the bleeding. During bankruptcy it would have been easy to just spin it off.
GM fails to reduce European losses
3) Poor marketing and advertising including the "chevy runs deep" and the EVER strategy. They have rid themselves of the man responsible.

I hope they do better, I don't know whether they will. GM and nissan did refreshes and continued to invest. All I have heaerd about the net gen prius phv is that they hear from customers that they want more range and that it has been delayed to the end of 2015. We have no details, but I was trying to be positive.

Toyota seems to be moving both engineering and marketing resources from the prius phv project to the mirai project. The chief engineeer for fuel cells came from that project.

So since you say it is obvious

Who is toyota building the mirai for? I hear the who question from you on the volt, and to a certain extent I agree with you they missed the market. Where I disagree is toyota has done better in this market for alternatively fueled vehicles. Eq cancelled. Rav 4 EV cancelled. prius phv suspending in june for at least a year with clear pr saying fuel cells are the future. Mirai only planned for 5700 total vehicles world wide through 2017. Have toyota learned from the low sales of these 4 vehicles, who they should target?

So yes I hope toyota is serious about rolling out a much better phv that includes dealer training and an embrace of plug-in technology. You keep saying the volt has too big a battery, but all the plug-ins that do better than it have bigger batteries. So I am asking who is toyota targeting with the net generation phy? Will it keep a 4.4kwh battery or will they do what customers are telling them and give it better electric acceleration and more electric range? Will they roll it out across the US or only do it in compliance states? It isn't obvious to me who they are targeting at all.

 

In asking who is the customer you say "Will it keep a 4.4kwh battery or will they do what customers are telling them and give it better electric acceleration and more electric range?". The key definition is who is a potential customer. The ones you have can misdirect you and they have already bought. What do you need to do to acquire conquest sales is the question you have to ask and that is not answered by your current customers who are already sold.

If asked, I'd say I want more of both. But if you probe further, even if you produce that I'm not a buyer in the near term so hearing my wants did you very little good.

 

Take some courses in business & economics. Among the topics covered will be audience, timeline, diversification, and willingness experiment.

GM bet the farm on Volt, hoping for a quick & large payoff. It clearly didn't work. That's why it got so much attention. Thankfully, we are now seeing a change of approach as a result of the lesson learned the hard way.

Toyota is getting attention now with fuel-cell rollout because people don't like multi-faceted approaches and long-term efforts with limited quantity. (It's also a common diversionary tactic used to draw attention away from other topics by those losing debates.)

In an ever-changing market, Toyota has stayed true to the goal of focusing on the masses. They haven't fallen into the trap of sacrificing cost for the sake of niche praise. It's the ordinary mainstream consumers they are striving to deliver competitively affordable & profitable vehicles choices and patience waiting for that is a challenge with each generation.

 

If the Volt is niche, then isn't the Prius v also niche? and the Camry hybrid maybe a little better at niche plus.

With the Volt CUV concept and ELR, I think it was obvious GM was thinking of expanding the technology from the beginning. Refining the technology and lowering the costs first is probably the sensible approach. It appears to be what Toyota did in regards to HSD.

I would think FCVs are the poster child of long term efforts with limited quantities.

 

Niche has a simple definition. It's not selling at mainstream volume and it is not targeted to appeal to mainstream buyers.

 

John's question, with me just playing devil's advocate by detailing gm problems then asking it back about toyota.

The initial adopters of plug ins typically live in (own or rent) a single family home, and makes over $100,000/year household income. They aren't asking for an 11 mile ev, and those low income folks aren't buying plug-ins or hybrids. Plug-in adopters are typically between 30-60 while hybrid owners skew higher in age an mileage, but there is a lot of overlap in buyer profile.

I have both an engineering degree and an MBA. I understand how much money has been wasted by gm, honda, mercedes, hyundai, and toyota in attempting to commercialize Hydrogen fuel cells. For GM it was 2.5B, but toyota over $2B so far. I at least have the education to understand when a company is spreading BS. Toyota has answered the critics recently by saying they have deep pockets ($60B) so they can afford to lose lots of money on it, but they want the tax payers to pay to commercialize now because they claim they are ready. I look at the mirai, and agree with Toyota, they will sell very few, they are not ready.

On the other hand the volt program spent a lot less money. What farm did gm bet. It cost very little money post bankruptcy, and in total much less than the mirai program or even the amount they lost in europe last year. During bankruptcy it was clear that the volt would not be profitable until the second generation. This bet the farm for quick profit is as much bs as the latest mirai commercial. Toyota is not betting the farm on the mirai either, they are spending a lot of money, but it seems that they are using it more to block plug-in adoptions and lobby governments than as a serious car they expect to sell. Nissan was the company with the big bet. Nissan/Renault invested $5B in bevs, and have needed to write down much of that investment as losses.

I still don't understand who would buy a mirai over a gen II volt.The both are 2+2 cars which is what I think was the volts biggest mistake. The volt is heavy, the mirai is heavier. The volt is a little expensive compared to the cruze, the mirai is much more expensive compared to the camry hybrid. The volt can charge in your garage or fill at any gas station, with the mirai you need anouther car to travel outside the small areas there are hydrogen infrastructure, but even with free hydrogen everywhere those mirai specs look like a dog. Maybe that is whey Lexus feels the need to put out misleading anti plug-in advertising.

They hype the beast at every car and high tech show. They are getting attention because they are paying for it. The backlash is against the misleading claims against plug-ins, and the extra government money they have been able to get with that line of bs.

Let's see you have no patience for voltec to move outside the volt, but you expect ordinary mainstream customers to buy the prius phv or mirai. I call that delusional. Stop drinking the kool-aide john. The mirai won't make money for at least 50 years unless governments pay for at least half of every one (current plan in parts of japan).

 

They were so anti-hybrid and anti-EV, it's pointless even bothering to bring up the topic with someone that doesn't remember. Everything was placed on rapid success of Volt. That didn't work out. They have learned the lesson from that mistake and are now diversifying.

There's nothing to understand. They are for totally different purposes. It makes no sense to consider them competition. That's why knowing audience is so important.

 

You probably did not read my response at all from this answer, but lets put a fork in it. They Wagoner and Lutz admitted those mistakes before the volt was even released. These are the guys that bankrupted the company. Current chevy management never made that mistake, so I doubt they learned anything, as they probably always knew. The new head of cadilac was anti-plug-in while at infiniti, but current gm management has him adding plug-ins to the cadillac line.

Some GM dealers like many other auto dealers are anti-hybrid and anti-volt and anti-bev.

well that just is wrong on the face of it. Who the hell is the audience for the mirai.

Both the mirai and second gen volt

A) 2+2 designs which look very similar in internal layout. The gen II volt at least in my and the presses opinion is more attractive on the inside and outside. Both drives could be used in other more popular cars.

B) Claim all electric running and that superior drive train for most daily trips. On road trips the volt will fire up its engine, during its useful life a mirai owner will take another car on trips over 100 miles, as there won't be places to fill up on any long road trip in the next decade. This thread showed that with the new 50 mile range the volt should have more electric miles than a 80 mile bev.

C) Mirai does not need a plug at work or at home, but a very small percentage leaseing such an expensive vehicle won't have access. Its a fake advantage. Meanwhile the volt can be charged at home and refilled at any gas station.

D) Both can use renewable electricity. The volt is probably at least 3x more efficient on renewables.

E) Both say creating the car will push cost of the next generation down. That is probably true. The mirai starts with higher government subsidies and is more expensive after subsidies. I guess the good news for toyota is the volt probably won't be sold in Japan. In the US the volt tech has at least a 15 year head start. I hope fcv get tech breakthroughs, all phevs need is better designs.

Who is the mirai for? It looks like it is for a tiny slice of people that don't like plug-ins, but want to use renewables for fuel. That is a very tiny niche, about 5700 people world wide between now and january 2018 according to toyota, and only reach the tens of thousands a year sometime in the 2020s. More cynically is the mirai being released only to slow plug-in support among politicians. This was the charge against wagoner and his fuel cell push. Then in lutz's book he said wagoner was just delusional and really believed, and the yes men at gm, who knew he was not looking at the costs, let him burn that $2.5B. Some of that may be true at toyota too.

Toyota Plans Slow Release of Hydrogen-Powered Car - WSJ

They even had a painting of him as Don Quixote. Mr. Uchiyamada helped akio toyoda rise to ceo, and Mr. Toyoda has done a much better job than wantanabe running most of the company. Maybe this tilt at the fuel cell windmills is just expensive payback to his chairman of the board. Both the big batteried phev and fcv solve the refuel time problem of bevs. The phev simply is less expensive and ready for commercialization today. The fuel cell vehicle needs a lot more work. Maybe in 20 years, but certainly it won't work this decade.

2016 Toyota Mirai FCV First Drive – Video - HybridCars.com

bolding mine. Note they are talking mirai after subsidies plus an assumed US federal $8000 additional subsidy toyota is pushing for but does not currently exist, and comparing to the 2011 volt without subsidies. The gen II volt is less expensive than the 2011 without subsidies, and with leather and loaded is $11,000 less than a softex mirai after subsidies. If toyota and the fuel cell lobby gets subsidies raised another $8000, that closes the gap in price, but ... there still is the infrastructure and fuel cost problems.

My money is on tesla model 3 and other long range bevs, and phevs in that time scale, but certainly fcv are not ready for prime time this generation. They are pre-commercial. Why pretend plug-ins need to sell so much more in the initial adopter first generation. Sure in 15 years fcv may have technical advacnes that make them viable, and toyota and the governments of Japan and US have deep pockets, but this is trying to solve the same problem the volt and outlander phev are trying to solve.