First Hyundai now BMW. Ditching Fuel Cell Vehicles

Yes let's include it too. GM had hybrid bus and that pushes timeline way back to 2003. Oh wait how about Toyota Coaster? that was way back in 1997.
Hybrid electric bus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Toyota Coaster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

With respect to oranges it is age old approach to give wrong answer and then define context in which the answer may be true.

This reminds me the story of Platonic definition of what man is. When Plato defined human as a "being on two legs" Socrates (his teacher) turn around and grabbed a rooster. Plato corrected "being on two legs without feather" and Socrates plucked the bird. So you have it now, "Man is an upright, featherless biped with broad, flat nails." I suppose they were missing a schimp to continue discussion.

So we have it:
- electric cars produced in early 20th century do not count b/s it was 100 years ago
- and they were not mass-produced since they gone out before "mass-produced" was defined in 1926
- Trolleys do not count b/c they are buses
- golf carts do not count b/c in some states they cannot be operated on public roads

what else?

 

I think you are trying to debate how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. To be clear -

Electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles both were produced in small quantities in the 19th century. Electric vehicles were more refined but more expensive.

First electric starter in a car was a Cadillac in 1912, while the first hybrid a porsche in 1901, then (diesel electric) was in a locomotive in 1914.

Henry Ford and Thomas Edison wanted to create affordable electric vehicles, but when the electric starter was invented, making cars easier to use, the price differential (about 4x more for a Detroit electric versus a model T) seemed like an insurmountable barrier, especially for ford or what would become gm which wanted to sell as many cars as possible. They worked on improving the gasoline powered automobile.

The modern phev and hybrid vehicles were invented in the 1970s. During the intervening time periods, batteries had improved only a little, but motors, engines, and electronics a great deal. The only thing holding back bevs, phevs, and hybrids at this point were costs. The modern electronics illustrate a break point between earlier hybrids and bevs and the newer designs in the 1970s.

By 1996 electronics and batteries had improved enough for a pre-commercial try at bevs, and gm put out the ev-1. This suffered from cost and range limitations, but the batteries were certainly good enough for phevs. GM produced a phev version the ev1-parallel hybrid that could have been viable as a production car, but gm in order to promote fuel cells, sold the battery patents to texaco. Texaco was bought by chevron, and chevron/Texaco/gm burred the patents, delaying the commercial viability of plug-ins until other battery technology improved.

The first production hybrid was the 1997 prius, which benefited from improved electronics. The car could not have been produced much before this as battery and electronics were not good enough 10 years earlier.

In 2008 the tesla roadster, a pre-commercial bev hit the scene, with cosumer lithium cells. This proved batteries that avoided the ovonics patent were good enough. Inspired by the roadster chevy and nissan released the first modern commercial plug-ins the volt and leaf at the end of 2010. These benefited from work with hybrids and diesel electric locamotives that had been going on, but the most gating item has been the batteries, which could have been available a decade sooner if not for patent encumbrance.

 

And to sum up the almost 200 year old idea of building electric car came to fruition as the battery and electrics had improved.

Electric vehicles had long and rocky history. They were prevailing prior to invention of Otto cycle engines. They out-competed steam powered cars. Then they lost competition to ICE powered cars due to costs, size and range restrictions. They were relegated to niche use, such as golf cart or trolley bus. Almost forgotten for 90 years, they finally making come back at the beginning of 2010 decade due to high gas costs and low ICE efficiency.

People were willing to put up with high costs, low range and long re-charge time due to government provided incentives, especially in locations giving high rebates and granting access to HOV lanes. How long it will last? future will tell.

 

Yep. Then the question we are trying to answer is does anyone want one. Some people say no, some yes. The numbers though for plug-in penetration once commercialization was achieved is faster than hybrids. That should make you mighty skeptical of the No's like congressman Mike Kelly.

All speed records up to 1900 were in electrics and for public transportation where electric lines or rails could be run they were supperior. The big problem for light vehicles were cost. The electric starter in 1912 made this a big problem as gasoline cars were no longer as messy.

Actually the US government put up barriers until recent times and subsidized other car companies. Plug-in subsidies are not very high, but battery costs still need to come down. Fiat and Toyota are still kicking and screaming and fighting the plug-ins as are some politicians. Will batteries come down under $200/kwh and make subsidies not needed? DOE, tesla, nissan, gm, and lg think so.

 

Let me ask you why plug-ins such as Volt, Prius, i3, Energi, etc are being call "electric"? Do they not have gasoline powered engines? Are they not hybrids?

So why are they included in "electric" tally?

 

Sometimes hybrids like the prius are called electric (hybrid electric vehicles) or electrified. I would say they are electrified but not electric, because their electricity an only be generated from gasoline.

The prius phv, energi, i3-rex, volt, are all electric as they can be powered from electricity fom the wall. They are also all hybrids.

Why are these electrics included and not restrict it to bevs? Well because they are electric, they have large traction batteries (at least 4.4kwh) and can be powered from the wall. They are also included in the attacks by the politicians that don't like electrics. Federal subsidies only care about battery size not if it has an engine. California subsidies do separate these, but I can't say I agree that fcv are over twice as good as bevs as california subsidies seem to be targeted.

 

But you see my point? Why are they included in EV statistic, not hybrid statistic?

If they are electrics, then:
- The Porche hybrid had 4 tons of batteries, so it was not really a hybrid, right?
- Murai uses electricity, so it is electric too?
- Or how about regular Prius in EV mode?
- or should we argue that all car with manual transmission which could be moved by starter have "electric" drive mode?
(luckily in US FHA put end to it, but there is no law on the books in EU)

Isn't this watering down your electric Kool-Aid too?

 

Again phevs are hybrids. The murai is electrified but not electric (it uses electricity but can not obtain it from the plug, it is purely a hydrogen vehicle).

This comes into discussions about poor sales figures. Which were projected to stay bad forever.
Chevy-Dealing Congressman: "There Is No Market" For The Volt - The Truth About Cars
Why Americans Still Don’t Drive Electric Cars | The Fiscal Times
Why Sales of Electric Cars Like the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf Have Yet to Take Off | TIME.com

With predictions that plug-ins were destined to sell in only tiny quantities. Kelly trying to remove incentives saying even with them they wouldn't sell (which makes me believe he was scared they would).

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
sales in 2014 though were 2.3x those in 2012 when those articles were saying no one wants them.

Some people bought prii in the past and converted them to phevs which is what they really wanted. Comparing the slope is about saying people need to be patient. Wait until 2020 (which is like 2007 for the prius) for plug-in cars really to take off. Improvements in phevs should trickle to hybrids, just like hybrid improvements have made phevs and bevs better.

Key improvements for all in 2020 are lower battery prices, lower electric ac prices, better regen brakes and electronic power steering. These should also improve non-plug-in hybrids.

I would say the mirai is still in the pre commercial catagory. It can't grow like plug-ins as a company would need to take a loss on everyone to sell volume. Absolutely though fuel cells should benefit from phev improvements, but they need lower fuel cell costs, and lower hydrogen costs too, before they reach a commercial stage. Plug-ins are currently in the early adopter phase, think 2003 for the prius, when then gen II was just released.

 

So if murai is not electric b/c it is not getting it from the grid, then my 1970s Spitfire sure is, as long as the 12v battery was charged from the plug, correct? it does not have the clutch nanny, and the battery is on a tender.

The biggest improvements have to come from batteries. If you manage to quadruple energy density while reducing price in half, it would be relatively easy task to design a car with quick replace battery. Until we see that and the subscription network of battery replace stations, BEVs will stay what they are: the glorified golf carts.

IMHO if you wanna truly compare BEV and hybrid growth rates, you need to separate dual fuel cars into separate category, and use 2004-2010 hybrid numbers. the pre-2004 numbers are not good indicators, as the prices on gas were still low.

And last but not least statistic is all about framing the category. For example if we were to make a new category for DFI or Turbo powered cars, the growth statistics would have been much much more impressive.

 

Ah, the thread just got interesting.

Pictures of said Spitfire?

 

a better comparison would be to have the oil companies pay for hydrogen infrastructure. California tried to get the oil industry to build it. They refused. Think of it - all that natural gas they could sell ... supply & demand could have easily meant higher prices for their product, yet they refused. That should say volumes about infrastructure costs.
'Hydrogen highway' headed to a dead end? | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

I highly doubt the auto industry would have sued if the government tried to force them into Road building and improvements. After all, that would have still been a likely profitable arrangement, as the auto industry could have built toll roads. But again, the fossil fuel industry doesn't want to touch it with a ten foot pole.
.

 

au contraire on your Prius to Leaf conversion:

Does your guv'ment charges road tax on EVs? How much cheaper to fuel with electricity?

 

lol. Yes it is more electric than the mirai, but that percentage of power had to be small.

I really don't understand the drama toyota has instilled that energy density is a problem. A tesla model S 90d should have a 285 mile range, and seating for 5 (+2 jump seats) and 2 trunks. It seems density is not a problem. If they did a redesign the 312 miles that the mirai gets is easy, but why waste R&D on that strange yardstick, when the 70kwh battery should be the major seller with 240 miles of epa range. The volt increased energy density 20% in 5 years, I would think that small amount will be typical and good enough.

Price is a bigger factor. The gigafactory should drop cost to tesla to under $200/kwh, or $14,000 for a 70kwh battery. The goal is to get it down to $100/kwh. Tesla is still charging in the price of the car to build the supercharger network and to do R&D for the model X and 3, but come 2019 these costs will go way down. Nissan, Ford, and GM should have models that go around 200 miles epa with battery prices bellow $350/kwh (probably from lg or tesla) before 2019 too.

I think that the idea of categorizing was for the doubters that thought there would be no customers for plug-ins. Here selecting post gen II period for hybrids is not applicable. If we get 1 M plug-ins on the road in the US, and 500,000 in China before 2020 it will have established the category. Just the fact that the gigafactory is being built and LG is planning to sell batteries to a non-tesla 200 mile plug-in establishes that the incentives have provided manufacturing efficiencies.

 

Car tax on all EVs is free.

It used to be free on all vehicles that emitted less than 100g/km of CO2 and had a sliding scale upwards from that. That meant the Prius was free as it's official rating was about 89g/km. A car emitting 110g/km was about £20 per year up to a Range Rover chugging out 300g/km paid about £500 a year.

Since the new right of center Conservative Government got in they've amended road tax to a flat rate of £140 a year for all cars, including hybrids and plug in hybrids, or Range Rovers or Lambos. The only car that is still free is the EV at 0g/km. Make of that what you will.

My Leaf costs about £2 to fill up. I've done nearly a 1,000 miles in just over 3 weeks which is about 3x more than normal, purely because it's so cheap to run. The chademo fast chargers near me are free to use and I used one of those today. There are also some Pay As You Go chademo's in York which are 15p a kwh. This is ever so slightly lower than my own household rate of 15.4p/kwh so it would be foolish not to take a top up if passing. Another benefit is that the public fast chargers are actually surprisingly sociable - if it's not a case of chatting to the other ev or phev driver next to you, it's some interested Joe Public asking about the car - much more often than ever happened with the Prius. Only negative with some of the fast chargers is the high pitched sound they give out if the battery is really low. Some do it, others never do.

Petrol is still quite expensive despite the fall in oil prices as most of the cost is tax. It's about £1.19 a litre or $6.81 a US gallon. It's such a nice feeling never to have to stop at a petrol station, or even cast an eye over to see what the latest price is when I'm passing.

The Leaf is cheaper to run than the Prius, cheaper to insure - by about £30 a year and is a bit of fun. I've tested the limits of how far it will go and how totally inaccurate the range-o-meter is. I get about 75 miles to a full charge, maybe a little more if I'm careful. The car is second hand and I think there is a small amount of capacity loss in there somewhere, though it still has all battery bars.

I even got a small discount off my electricity company for having an EV. A token £40 and probably because they know they'll make it back with dividends but they are also the ones who provide the free fast charge network that I use so I can't grumble.

Discount For Electric Car Drivers - For The Road - Ecotricity

I do enjoy the traffic light grand prix where I burn off pretty much everything in the 0-40 sprint I just love the look on the face of the Golf GTI driver who tried and failed to burn me off. You can see they just don't believe it and you can tell it really hurts their pride that some nonsense looking electric car showed them who's boss. The Leaf goes like stink. Also remember that average cars here are slower than in the US, so the Leaf stands out. I do lose out once I get to 50 mph though, but that first 0-40 really shocks them

Finally, I'm running the car on 100% renewable electricity at home and the fast chargers I use are mostly the same, with a small exception. It's nice to be driving and not polluting the local air at all. Makes me feel more pious than I ever did in the Prius.

Where's these pics of the Spitfire?

 

Congrats on new (to you) car! It is very good that it works for you and range isn't an issue.

I drive ~2800-2900mi a month, with 150-170mi on some days, no public chargers (there is one free at the library ~5mi from work and another a couple close by home, 4.6mi away).

Driving 30k annual with current prices $2.57/gal, $0.16/kWh, Leaf would save me whooping $100 a year over Prius C. That if it had the range to cover my needs. The Leaf costs ~9-10k more than we paid for C, so you could say that in 90-100 year Leaf would break even and become profitable. That if batteries and I last that long.

From economic point of view it was hard to justify buying C over Mitsu Mirage. The payback period would be ~300k miles. Maybe less if prices on gas go up. But I got one b/c it was a better car and it gives a protection if the prices do go up. Which if you look at Iran deal and what Saudi and Mr. Putin saying isn't gonna happen any time soon.

EDIT: with your affection to Leaf traffic light dash you may enjoy reading this:
The (Nearly) 1.0-g Nissan Leaf: Getting an EV to Grip Like a 911 - Feature - Car and Driver

 

1966 GM Electrovan FCV

 

Let me break it down so it is easier to digest.

Just stepped out and looked at circuit breaker, and the main is 100amp. The A/C is 50amp, so effectively we have ~40amp/230v on tap, or about 9.2kWh. So with 240v charge we'd need ~8hr. Tesla is saying 5mi/hr for 110v and 31mi/hr for 240v. Or 52 and 9.5hr respectively. Close enough.

Tesla supercharges on supercharge equipped Model S can do 300mi in 1hr. Public charge stations give ~22mi/hr. It takes ~5min to pump gas into car, so socially acceptable charge time is 10-15min. This would give you ~50mi on Supercharger, and ~3-4mi on public charger.

For comparison single 5min fill up would give you 3-400mi in regular car, and 6-700mi in hybrid or diesel. And not surprisingly one of the selling points for hybrids (#2) is the fewer gas stops. Going to hours of daily charging and sitting for hours at charge station will require changes to social behavior, a shift which will not happen soon (and probably as long as people own cars. You buy car to save time, not to spend it charging)

So effectively unless you work within throwing stone from supercharger, or you have a public charger, you will be mostly charging at home. And you'd need a different car for travels exceeding range. This limits potential BEV ownership to people who own a house, can charge nightly and also own a regular car. And then there is a premium associated with the price of batteries which drives BEV price up.

The alternative would be to design a car with smaller batteries which could be swapped in 5min. This would solve the issue with charging, but require different packaging with smaller batteries.

Another alternative would be Google style self-driving taxi/cars, which would drop you off and drive to nearest charge station. While this already solved technically, legal part will not happen anytime soon either.

Volt did not increase energy density by 20%. They improved packaging.

And for reference the energy density of gasoline is 15-35 times higher by volume then LiIon batteries.

 

here is the EV Electrovan video:

looks like the EV clock starts at 2010, since it is not a car.

 

The norm is now 200amp for newer homes. My home built in 1910 has it. Upgrading when we bought the house was not a financial hardship.

Why would sit at a charger waiting? Why not go run some errands at nearby businesses, or get a bite to eat? These aren't gasoline pumps in which you are legally required not to leave unattended.
You aren't going to wait by the charging car at home either. You are going to plug it in, like your phone and watch, and forget about it until the next day.
Most people fill up their ICE once a week or so. The amount of time they spend at the gas station in a week is about the same amount of time a plug in owner spends plugging in the car. They just don't have to deal with a gas station. Time isn't the only factor people like the reduced station visits with a hybrid. One such reason not having to get out into the weather.

It will take time for BEVs to fully replace the private ICE car, if it ever does, but they can replace some of them now with positive benefits. Of the millions of households in this country, many do own a home and have more than one car already. For households with one car, there are plug in hybrids.

And higher cost. A swap station will cost more than any public or home charger, which the owner presumably will still need. With needing to keep batteries on hand, there is no savings to the system in using smaller batteries in the car. The capital cost just gets transferred from the car buyer to the station owner. Small battery will mean shorter range, and the need for more swap stations.

Which is why ICEs will be around for a while. But grid electrification of the private fleet doesn't have to replace every ICE car out there to do good.

 

hehehehe

CA Fuel-Cell Car Drivers Say Hydrogen Fuel Unavailable, Stations Don't Work

"While they enjoy driving their cars, early lessees of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in Southern California are complaining that they can't reliably fuel them at the handful of stations now supposedly operating in their region.

The stations are frequently inoperative, they say, closed for days or weeks at a time.

Moreover, when the stations are functioning properly, they sometimes can only fuel one or two cars before an hour-long wait is required--and some stations can only fuel the cars to half-full."

'Buy a Mirai and you'll find the filling stations are just a mirage'
.
... haha I came up with that one.