Toyota negative on batteries because it has more experience than other others on them

You are right in that the process seems complicated but when U make the calculations it -may- still be efficient.

As I have already mentioned, Hydrogen seem to be very energy dense, that's one reason it's good for cars, weight is important. The storage problem have been solved as far as I know, Toyota uses Carbon fiber reinforced tubes.
70 MPascal seem to be a high pressure but U have 30 in a diving tube ;-)

 

That's why they use weight instead of volume but U have a point even if I insist that weight matters.

 

Yes, I do in fact believe this number is rather exaggerated but as you mention, the technology is new and rather untested in cars so I leave it there for now. I have to decode the paper i linked to first ;-)

 

When you are talking energy density in terms of kwh/kg or gge/lb (choose your own units) you need to include the support structure and safety cage not just the energy bearing stuff. Here the hydrogen tanks and cage make it not so ideal, which is why hydrogen vehicles are much heavier than gasoline equivalent vehicles today. The materials are much more expensive also. Batteries and hydrogen are good enough, but much heavier when full system is counted then gasoline or methanol. In terms of volume kwh/l or gge/gallon hydrogen is pretty big, and perhaps takes up more volume for equivellent energy than lithium polymer or other battery choices. Methanol is a possible fuel cell fuel, which has lower costs than 10,000 psi hydrogen and better energy density in terms of weight and volume when the full system is considered. Methanol could also run engines though, can be made from natural gas, or renewably from biomass or electricity.

Cost of the tanks is very high which is anouther problem, but costs should be going down as carbon fiber prices go down. Then again this also drives down prices of a lighter bev+rex like the bmw i3.

 

There is a thread in the GM section on a 2012 Volt that has gone nearly 250k miles. The only non maintenance issue it had was a wheel bearing. I believe is it listed here: Volt Stats! Tracking real world usage of Chevy Volts in the wild.... There are some Volts there with over 100k miles with about half of them being on the battery. Then Hyundai and Ford have been using Li-ion in their hybrids for about 5 years now. Plus their PHVs for Ford. Same with the Prius plug in. Trends for early Li-ion death in PHVs should be apparent by now.

FCEVs are heavy, in part, because of the hydrogen tanks. Even using carbon fiber, a tank that can contain 10,000psi or more is going to be robust. The goal is to get the hydrogen, by mass, the contains to equal 5% of the total package. So a tank that holds 5kg of hydrogen will be 95kg empty. 209lbs is quite a bit more than the plastic tanks and fuel pumps in current ICEs. The Mirai's tanks are less than 5%. This could simlply be because it has two separate tanks. I suspect multiple tanks won't be as weight efficient as a single one, but then a single one would be harder to package in the car. Physics will make tank improvements for weight difficult.

On the subject of tanks, the US DOT requires CNG tanks on road vehicles to be inspected annually. The tanks also have an expiration date based on time of manufacturer. The best, and most expensive, on the market are good for 25 years. The cheap ones are 10 to 15 years. These tanks have to contain only 3500psi, and natural gas is not as aggressive against materials as hydrogen. Replacing the hydrogen tanks on a FCEV will likely be as expensive as replacing the battery on a BEV. Except the BEV doesn't have to have its battery replaced legally at a certain point regardless of its current capacity.

Going to liquid hydrogen will result in a lighter tank. The pressures involved are lower. It will still be bulky from insulation, and the main issue will be hydrogen loss from venting. Enough insulation to not require venting, will just add more weight and bulk. Metal hydrides may be the best bet in order to use hydrogen directly and reduce weight. Car sized systems are still mostly in the lab.

The Mirai could shave some weight be using a Li-ion pack instead of the NiMH it now uses. It is also possible that the Volt has a higher percentage of aluminum in its body, but the number I listed is for the current one. The new Volt has lost over a hundred pounds at least. It is likely closer to 200, and that is mostly weight savings in the battery and hybrid transaxle. So using more aluminum, high strength steel, and carbon fiber will reduce a FCEV's weight, but at increased cost.

It isn't a challenge to them, because it's not their problem beyond token amounts of cash.

The source is simple economics. Reforming natural gas is just cheaper than electrolysis. A Mirai will include three years of hydrogen paid for by Toyota, with a cap of $15,000. How many cars available for sale have an annual fuel cost of $5000? For hydrogen FCEVs to succeed in the market, the cost per mile for fuel can't be higher than gasoline or diesel. FCEVs aren't going to have all the other draws of a plug in car to attract sales. If the cost of hydrogen is higher 2 to 2.5 times higher than gasoline, people won't buy them for the same reasons they don't buy hybrids during time of cheap gas. Renewable based hydrogen will just increase the price at the pump.

Perhaps renewable hydrogen will cost less than reforming natural gas in time. In that time, we might also get renewable gasoline and diesel for PHVs.

Which is probably the time that a FCEV will require new hydrogen tanks, and maybe a fuel cell stack.

The only thing keeping other car companies from using Superchargers is their choice not to buy in. Which is also why Chademo wasn't supported by Ford, GM, or the German manufacturers.

The hydrogen stations being built now cost $2.6 million to build. At $100k per DC charger, and it might be half this, you can install 8 each of Supercharger, Chademo, and the SAE DC standard stations. Well, Tesla is building Superchargers already. Let's say 24 Chademo/SAE combo stations for a little less than one hydrogen station that can dispense 100kg of hydrogen a day(maybe).
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdf

Pulling Back the Veil on EV Charging Station Costs

Toyota is a Japanese company. Switching to FCEVs was to solve to problems for Japan; pollution in cities and energy security. Nothing bad coming out of the tailpipe of a FCEV, so it fixes the first problem, even if the pollution is elsewhere. The second issue is partially solved. Originally, Japan was going to use nuclear power for electrolysis. With the anti-nuclear sentiment, they'll likely make the hydrogen from natural gas or coal. Importing those is better than petroleum from their perspective.

 

Here is a useful synthesis of all the major ways of making and distributing Hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles that analyzes CO2 emissions as well as cost. It came out in March 2013 so it presumably includes any relevant data from the ~2010 wind material you linked to from the same NREL site:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60528.pdf

It shows Hydrogen from wind electrolysis to be substantially more expensive than Hydrogen reformed from natural gas. The price of wind generation has been dropping since then but so have natural gas prices. The blue bars are essentially showing cost per mile for a Mirai.

 

How many kg of hydrogen do you expect this station to do in its lifetime.

What do the grid upgrades ((or if building and trucking liquifying and trucking costs), compressor, chiller, storage tank, electrolyzer cost, and how much profit does the station need to keep its lights on. Even if it only takes 3x as much renewable electricity to go the same number of miles, you have all these added costs. This equipment can be much more expensive than the PV solar panells and wind turbines.

From the slide above, central wind (liquifying, trucking so don't pay the grid upgrade) would cost about 12.5 cents a mile if 15% of cars were hydrogen fuel cells and get 68 mpg. If there are fewer vehicles those other costs go up, and I am talkng about now, where less than 1% of cars are fuel cells. Natural gas hydrogen 7.5 cents a mile, and this can be done at a much lower volume. If the two stations are right next to each other are you going to go to the one that costs $8.50/kg or $5.10/kg. Say the multiplyer is small and wind costs $0.04/mile, are you really going to force that large differential and expect a lot of fcv over phevs or bevs?

 

Nah, I'm a bit slow.

Why would use of one fossil fuel rather than another hasten transition to clean fuel ?

 

...not me

How do you transport H2? H2 is already widely used in industry for many decades.
It is transported by high pressure cylinder truck or pipelines.

How do you compress H2 to 10000 psia?..with a compressor. Specifically a compressor designed for refueling today's new H2 FCV vehicles. California seems to have dropped the ball on ordering a few, but they are readily available from EU companies like Lurgi.

When you make H2 from natural gas, you are not using too much fossil fuel to make it, because a lot of the the H2 comes from water in the steam methane reforming (SMR) reaction. Think of SMR as hybrid electrolysis that is more economical in today's low natural gas cost business environment. Only if we arbitrarily invoke that electrolysis is the only socially acceptable method to make H2 do we have to get into an argument about electrolysis draw-backs, which still could make sense as yet another flexible way to use H2 in certain cases.

What do I think? Right now I think gasoline heading for $1/gal long term, not including taxes, and not including California.

 

The energy comes from the natural gas heating the water to make steam, but its very efficient, about 80% on a good SMR hydrogen production plant. Then it drops down because you need to spend 2kwh-7kwh of electricity for each kg of hydrogen to compress and chill it depending on volume of the station (higher volume less energy wasted) and price of the compressor.

Now we could do a little side picken's plan here to net out renwable on the caifornia grid. You tax the SMR reformed hydrogen $1/kg, and with that money you put wind turbines on the grid to offset the use. That is much cheaper ($3.50/kg or more) than making the hydrogen from central wind and trucking it. Net effect usage of natural gas will stay the same, but you will waste less money on equipment. Now the taxpayers are expected to pick up that $3.50 tab anyway according to the California scheme, so why not just mandate the wind and skip the bureaucracy requiring the renewable hydrogen.

 

According to this, 20 stations for the $20 million budget. That's $1 million per station. These stations would be Mirai ready so, they should be 3-5 minutes refills at 10,000 psi.

Taking On Tesla: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Vehicle Infrastructure Hurdles (Interview) - Forbes

It costs less than battery pack for sure. Where can you get a 312 miles electric car under $58k (before incentives)?

Even using your cherry picked example, you'll need 24 Tesla Powerwall battery packs to store that electricity. Using them to charge an EV would take 50 mins (24 x 5kW) to refuel a 100 kWh pack (about 300 miles). It'll take 10 times longer than Mirai.

The cost of 24 Powerwall packs would be $84k for the installer. That does not include inverter or the installation cost. Once you bring all the comparable functionalities together, you get the point. $100k for 300 miles EV and another $100k for storage of unreliable nature of renewable electricity.

Hydrogen is more than converting energy. It also stores and refuels very quickly. The vehicles that runs off it, is also highly scale-able. Combine that with many breakthroughs in production and storage possibilities, I am optimistic.

 

The industries that use it grow up around were it is produced, mostly oil refineries, in order to keep transport costs low. There somewhere in the area of 1100 miles of hydrogen pipelines for this need. There are hundred of thousands for gasoline use, and natural gas lines are in the millions range.

How much do they cost? For hydrogen FCEVs to be able to travel nation wide, these compressors need to be installed in the equivalent of every gasoline station.[/quote]

Using natural gas negates any zero carbon emission claim. Economically, it is better, but that makes any renewable source; electric, bio-gas, fermentation, etc., less likely to be implemented without government regulations or increasing the cost. So it is just a shift from one fossil fuel to another, and burning natural gas directly in any type of ICE car may be near as clean as a FCEV, but much cheaper to implement nationwide.

In which case, hydrogen would have to be $2/kg base to compete. Right now, it is around $10.

 

FCV is an electric-electric hybrid, basically an EV. Once vehicles are switched to run on H2, it is as simple as switching from fossil H2 to renewable H2.

BEVs can do similar, except the grid can never become 100% renewable. I shouldn't say never but it can be done with expensive grid battery packs but it wouldn't be plausible.

 

Good info, for commercial scale H2. My post was in response to a comment that H2 could be made in the garage.
And then, how much energy each of those steps take. These need to be added into the calculations as well.

As for gas prices, I certainly don't see them at $1/gallon long term. I don't see them getting there in the short term, however I could see it happening briefly in just the right situation.

 

And they expect 10 to 15 for this year's $20mil budget, assuming these stations take only a year to build. What is the capacity of these stations? The cost I quoted was for one of 160kg/day with 91kg/day average, I think California is building smaller than that. Even if it is a million dollars per station, they could put in at least 10 DC fast chargers, and likely more.

It's 3 to 5 minutes fill time if there isn't a rush at the station.

Nowhere outside southern California, and even then you have to have a passing application.

A typeIV CNG tank of @10gge costs over $2000 today. 4 CNG Tank 15" x 59.2" 9.7 GGE - CNG United The tanks in the Mirai are made to hold over 3 times the pressure of a CNG tank. Plus, they need a liner that can hold up too and contain hydrogen. Splitting the car's fuel capacity between two tanks will further increase the cost.

Except many don't account for renewable fuel use that way. They could just buy your SRECs.

Hydrogen and fuel cells may have a future as a storage method of excess renewable energy for the grid. Some of that hydrogen could end up in cars. Some of it could also be used to make methane or a light, sweet crude, that takes some CO2 out of the atmosphere during the process, too. Plus the infrastructure already exists for distributing natural gas and petroleum fuels.

If it is scalable, why not start with heavy trucks or buses

If it were simple, why not start there?

Or grid fuel cells. If we are going to pick nits, hydrogen will never be 100% renewable in that case. People are going to travel at night, and will want to be able to refuel during that time.

which don't need as much infrastructure to begin?

 

It's 100 stations for $220 Million, but california has underestimated costs before, so I doubt that these will be 100 stations that can fill cars in 10 minutes. The figure is $20 Million/year in that interview. Lots of federal money on top of that $220 Million in california money. The last press released station cost $4M with $2.25M in federal money. The average tax payer subsidy should be around $2M per station Some stations claim that they will need less than $1M in tax payer money. That will be great if it happens and they work.

I can't. I can't buy a fcv for that either as I don't live in the limited area of California that is with credits and fuel. I can buy a 70D 240 mile range tesla model S for about $80K before subsidies that has the main upgraded bells and whistles, or I should be able to buy a volt gen II for about $34,400 before subsidies that should be available around the same time the 200 mirai are released in california. That volt has a 50 mile range, which is fine for my normal daily drives, and can be filled with wind (I get the benefit 2.2 cent/kwh federal subsidy and then local subsidy to fill with solar public chargers, which should work out a lot less then the subsidy for hydrogen fuel), then any gas station. I think the volt is more of a comparison figure for the mirai. How many trips in the next 10 years will people take in the mirai over 50 miles but with-in range of fueling stations.

I can't fill up a mirai unless I move to limited areas of california and japan. Who is cherry picking here?

But please tell me how these folks will fill up fast.
CA Fuel-Cell Car Drivers Say Hydrogen Fuel Unavailable, Stations Don't Work (UPDATED) (Page 2)

In other words trust us, hydrogen is more convient, um when we fix it.

Why would I buy 24 powerwalls? My utility provides me with wind electricity. I suppose I could get them to make it a smart charger to only charge when the wind is there, and I could install solar too, but it wouldn't cost anywhere close to buying an off grid battery. That is just pure waste. Hydrogen rules in callifornia allow them to claim green easier than my utiltiy does for my electricity. Isn't that a strange standard to have.

Sure if you buy install expensive comressors and build fuel cell vehicles then you can refill quickly, almost as quick as a battery swap. Industry wants hydrogen refueling more than battery swap, so sure, why not. I'm not trying to step on your optimism, but counter the false promise.

Plug-ins won't be ready in 10 years, but hydrogen will be ready sooner. That is all I'm countering here. There are cost and roll out issues with hydrogen that aren't going to be over come quickly. What did toyota corporate say when the hard questions were asked last, it may take 100 years but they are hoping 20. Let's not pretend these obstacles are going to be solved in a year or two.

 

Have the FCVs started showing up at Hollywood premiers yet? Probably the only place you're going to see them.

 

Jamie Lee Curtis has a clarity, she's had it for awhile. Then again, lots of the glitterati are driving teslas and prii, and I can't see fuel cell coming close to the appeal.

 

What about power line installation cost? You might as well include the cost of every wire connected to every power plants and every house since you guys claims there are millions of plugs available in the US (as part of the EV infrastructure). Oh, don't forget the utility poles, transformers, breakers, etc.

$225 for one SREC here in NJ. That's 22.5 cents per kWh. The cost of electricity is 18 cents here.

I hope you realize the value of stored renewable energy that can refuel very quickly

Those wind mills are grid-tied and so is your home. Unless you run a dedicated powerline, you aren't getting 100% wind electricity. Wind is piggy backing fossil fuel to be available at your time of use. A stored, available energy is what Wind is not.

I am with you that H2 and FCV has a long way to go (at least 2020) to become realistic for general public. Toyota was clear that Mirai is not for general public. Why is it being criticized as being one and not meeting the needs?

Were you as critical of EVs prior to Tesla building the first Supercharger station?

It appears you are bias toward what comes first rather than what's the best in the long run.

 

Ed Begley, Jr. didn't get one yet?