Featured Hybrid Dashboard Summary: July 2015

prius rules! okay, ram pick up diesel, but they're beyond the pale.

 

• Toyota rules hybrid space, and how.
• Leaf taking a dip some say due to the new-model-coming-out-soon-blues, but also expiration of GA/WA incentives in July, WA ended up extending their incentives for Leaf for another 12 months.
• Week or so I can tell you %CA for hybrid/plug-ins first half 2015

 

Yikes wti is under $46/bbl, hybrid take rate is only 2.27% ytd down from 2.9% last year, my confidence that a good gen IV prius can greatly improve this market is still there but weakening.

For plug-ins the next year is pretty bright after a flat year (down a suprising 5.6% ytd vs 2014, but look to make that up in the last quarter).
Tesla model X will get released, Tesla supplier problems have been solved, and changeover should be less painful than last year.
Gen II volt released in september or october
2016 leaf update should keep it in the game
better availability of bmw i

The outlander phev is also due next year which should help next years sales.

 

Compare Side-by-Side

On the ram its more torque but only 3 mpg than the V6 powered ram, while a prius is 15 mpg better than a corrolla eco.

But .... fuel savings are similar. EPA says you will save $1250 on fuel in the diesel or $1750 on the prius versus a similar model over 5 years.

 

If Mitsubishi lasts that long.
They are closing their last North American plant.

 

Its an import. Availability reaffirmed at the end of June. Poor sales of mitsubishi products may hurt the outlander phev as well as the rav4 hybrid and model X, but all these will build the hybrid/plug-in market by bringing more choice. The big 2 for plug-in sales growth are the model X and gen II volt.

 

But they have had to push back the introduction before though. I think they'll get it to market here, but if it gets delayed, or doesn't sell very well, Mitsubishi might end up pulling out of the US market.

 

2017 Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid: Spring 2016 On-Sale Date, More Details Revealed

 

Next week I'll give you CA hybrid take rate and I bet it is very high.
Then we can back-calc Rest-of-USA hybrid take rate, and I bet it is not-so-good

Plug_ins dodged a bullet with CA green HOV sticker extension and WA EV incentive extension for EV's under $35k, and WA have added PHEV's under $35K (excluding PiP) to their incentives. GA EV incentives lost however.

 

While California is an important state, I think the key one is the US rate for hybrids.

California might show though a higher oil tax would help hybrid sales, you know we just kicked the highway bill down the road again because no one will agree to how to pay for it.

 

Toyota rules the hybrid space!!!, happy to say I was able to acquire a Prius before move on to another country, but the Prius came with me, here the combustible is very expensive, and the Hybrid vehicles are like bigfoot, too much people talk about it, but no one saw one before, and feel surprising to see my car every place we go.

 

OK the California numbers are in for the first half!

1st Half 2012:
Hybrids holding 29.5% sold in CA
Plug-In Hybrids holding 62.6% sold in CA
BEV's dropped to 50% sold in CA (was higher 1st Quarter)

I am thinking there might have been extra Leaf sales in Georgia and Washington ahead of incentives expirations on June 30 (WA later re-instated the Leaf inceintives).

Hybrids+Plug-ins is 3% of USA market, Hybrids alone about 2.3% of USA market, and but falling. Hopefully the 2016 Prius saves the day.

Data: CNCDA

 

Toyota Reports August Sales of 224,381 Units

"August 2015 Highlights:

• Corolla posted sales of 31,726 units
• Camry August sales were 37,592 units
• Total TMS light trucks posted sales of 93,575 units
• Highlander up more than 16 percent
• 4Runner up over 15 percent
• RAV4 posted sales of 30,534 units
• Sequoia posted sales of 1,048 units
• Combined Tacoma and Tundra pickup sales up 0.4 percent
• Lexus luxury utility vehicles up 15.2 percent
• All-new NX posted sales of 4,448 units
• All-new RC posted sales of 1,337 units
• GX posted sales of 2,221 units"

Note: Last year's Labor Day Weekend was part of August selling Days!

 

So without too much study, Toyota brand "cars" down for 2015, which is contrary to market which looks like record year for car sales. Partial explanation for being down is Prius, hybrid sales slump. Gotta think this is fundamental shift away from hybrids due to lower gaso cost and higher cost for hybrids. Also California focus on plug-ins hurts hybrids.

Maybe EPA will save Prius with forced CO2 reductions at some later date.

 

But SUVs should make up for less hybrid sales, well depending on their production capacity!

This is not going to look good either:Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Toyota August Sales Down 8.8%

 

EPA already has the rules through 2025 on CO2 reductions they are encapsulated in CAFE standard. There is a political risk of government rolling these changes back if not enough efficient cars are being sold and gas prices remain low.

Lexus trucks aka SUVs (NX, RX, GX, LX)increased in DSR by 19.7%, the new NX helped with this increase. The LX humongous class was down which IMHO is a good thing, and the RX didn't get cannibalized that badly by the smaller NX. Pick up truck's increased DSR 4.3%. Those are the most profitable things toyota makes. Toyota SUVs only dropped 3.7% in DSR. Volume was not as good, but if DSR exceeds SVR then ASP goes up, and likely profit margins. Toyota and Lexus Cars dropped in DSR by 10.6%. The Lexus LS and GS dropped by around 27% each, maybe part of the tesla effect. Not surprising the prius family dropped 21.3%. With gas prices low, and a new prius coming soon, IMHO 21.3% is not bad.

 

Lexus Grabs Second Monthly U.S. Sales Win, Narrows Gap With BMW

 

no land rover?