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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Sep 15, 2015.

  1. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    never mind that many in China still directly heat their homes & cook their food with coal ovens - it's going to take a lot of work for China to clean up there fuel sources above 50% as the US is doing. Still, even a coal powered grid for charging cars goes a long way to reduce health problems caused from so much auto pollution as their market continues to grow.
    .
     
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I was only talking about Plug-in markets.

    Yes China is number one for ghg pollution, and their lead is growing. I hope as the chinese get more affluent they will produce less unhealthy pollution. In Beijing BEVs can run every day, but during clean air pushes, gasoline and diesel powered cars can only run every other day (even odd on license plates).

    China To Force Toyota To Build Electric Cars It Loathes
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    how are they doing with solar, wind and hydro? i would expect to see a lot of nuculer.
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    environmentaly friendly energy is definitely all on the increase. China for example recently brought on line the largest hydro generation project in the world .... nearly producing 100 terawatt hours per year;
    Three Gorges Dam - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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    #24 hill, Sep 20, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2015
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  5. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

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    I would not call that project "enironmentally friendly". They took out 1000s of years of history, millions of people's livelihood, and 1000s of people family land... and this just the people part. How about the natural history destruction that comes with building a dam?
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I guess we now have an apple green light for a car in 2019
    Apple Speeds Up Electric-Car Work - WSJ
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it's a motor and wheels, no big deal.
     
  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    ..... & controller - & charger - & traction pack - & thermal management - & lots of cup holders

    EDIT;
    I almost forgot . . . . a proprietary phone charger interface that won't work on android
    ;)
    .
     
    #28 hill, Sep 22, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2015
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  9. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    I HAVE A MERCEDES HYDROGEN CAR. It is all manner of suck:

    - No pricetag at the pump, but the station engineer said it currently costs taxpayers $20/gallon-equivalent
    - Derived from natural gas. Okay. So drive a CNG civic instead & it's the same difference (but cheaper).
    - "5 minute refuels" - Toyota. That's a lie. It's 20 minutes.

    I'd rather have one of those 250 mile EVs with 20 minute recharge (like Tesla)
    .
     
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  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    i'd see this one at Disney sometimes ....
    uploadfromtaptalk1443385506159.jpg
    anyone you know? It hasn't been there for a while - there's a Tesla in its parking spot, in stead. hmmmmmmm
    ;)
    .
     
  11. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    From all the lessons learned over the years, that's a trap none of us should be gullible enough to fall into anymore. We've seen many, many token gestures. Sure, the automaker delivered, but what's the point if the vehicle isn't something people actually buy?

    GM had the 2 biggest disappointments, both were heavy hyped and neither panned out. Two-Mode was supposed to change the industry. Instead, it wasn't anywhere near as good as promised and it was very expensive. Volt ended up the same way. They were promoted as technology for the masses though.

    What will these 200+ mile EVs be like? If they're small and expensive, who's going to be interested? Sure, it's nice having the choice, but the expectation of them attracting ordinary car buyers will go unfulfilled.
     
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    All depends upon your definition of "ordinary car buyers".

    Most car buyers don't have efficiency as their highest priority.
    To make a sizable impact, efficient cars have to attract people who don't normally care about efficiency.

    BEVs and PHEVs do that, FCVs don't.
     
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  13. HGS

    HGS Member

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    Will I have to upgrade my Apple Car every 18 months like my IPhone (4, 4S, 5, etc.)?
     
  14. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Each new thread shouldn't require restating that. We have already identified who... and when... and how much.
     
  15. HGS

    HGS Member

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    It really should be no big deal, except that product liability means lots of testing and reengineering. We don't need any failing ignition switches or uncommanded acceleration.

    Apple has a new nut to crack. I've never heard of an IPhone killing someone (but it's probably happened somewhere).

    Though I have several Apple products and want to buy an Apple watch some day, I don't have any desire to drive an Apple car for name sake. It would have to really wow me over the Prius.

    Cheers!
     
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  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    All right, rather than arbitrary numbers, let's look at the ones that really matter.

    The Prius is the king of hybrids. The most efficient and great amount of cargo/passenger space.
    Yet, hybrids as a whole category peaked around 3% market share.
    They cost a small amount more than comparable, non hybrids.

    So, how do we break through that 4% ceiling?
    What does the FCV offer people that makes it compelling compared to ICE vehicles?

    Sure, they will get some early adopters, but what do they offer over standard ICE vehicles to get them past the ceiling?
     
  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Why are you using present-day criteria to measure a technology not intended for mass-rollout yet?

    The mismatch isn't appropriate.

    It's as bad as using battery-tech from a decade ago to judge the battery vehicles being rolled out next year.
     
  18. HGS

    HGS Member

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    I think it comes down to cost of ownership. If it's more cost effective to buy a FCV, EV, or hybrid it will become very popular. So long as there's no inconvenience like finding a fueling station, spending time fueling (charging), or high repair costs (fear of expensive battery replacement).

    Most people don't care about ICE car pollution to the point of spending more money or time to prevent it. Look at how SUV and truck sales go up when gas prices fall.

    I bought a Prius when my annual commuting mileage went up to near 20,000 miles per year. It was a no brainier compared to my 17 year old, 15 MPG 4x4 I drove 8,000 miles/year.

    Make it cost effective to buy new and repair, easy to refuel, and they will buy them.
     
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  19. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    If you add in performance and number of cupholder, I agree 100%.
    So, FCV are much more expensive to repair, cost more than ICE vehicles to repair and will cost at least as much as gas, if not more. Their performance is the same or worse as ICE vehicles, and they are limited in where they can go, and will be for at least 10 years.

    I don't see how FCVs will help replace normal ICE vehicles.

    EVs for some people, already offer a lower TCO, are more convenient, more fun to drive, and we are still in the first generation.

    As improvements are made in both FCVs, BEVs and PHEVs, the number of people that find BEVs more convenient will continue to grow, the TCO will continue to get cheaper, and the performance will continue to improve.
    The FCV TCO will also drop, although it will take at least two more generations before it drops to the TCO of ICE vehicles. The hassle of fueling will get slightly better, but still not as convenient as ICE vehicles even if hydrogen filling stations were magically everywhere.
    The repair costs will remain higher than ICE.

    I just don't see the attraction that will take FCVs beyond the market share of hybrids.
     
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  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Token gesture -> mirai or rav 4 ev. Mirai has an expensive R&D budget, the rav4 ev project made toyota money (if you account for what they learned from tesla and gain in investment value of NUMMI and tesla stock). Mirai expects to ramp up to 3000 vehicles a year in 2017, then no increase in global production until the next generation. That means tiny geography tiny volume for compliance cars.

    On the other hand we have 6 car companies investing in 200 mile+ bevs. At first tesla was discounted as only a toy for the rich, but with expected volume of 50,000 BEVs this year growing at 50% per year, these car makers see a market. I have no idea if all 6 will be sucessful, but I expect at least 2 or 3 to sell tens of thousands a year, with tesla promising hundreds of thousands a year. As battery prices continue to fall R&D into these longer range BEVs represents a necessary investment for most of these companies.

    Plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles are initial adopter vehicles today. Fuel cells can't do interstate trips, they only work in limited geographic regions where the government has payed for infrastructure. The Japanese government seems most willing to invest, so unless you live in Japan, or only want to travel 200 miles in one direction they represent a new technology, but a big inconvenience.

    Long range plug-ins (200+ mile bev and phev) have a cost premium, but in the case of phevs easier fueling as they can charge at home or fill at any gas station. Many consider the power of a long range bev and home charging an advantage.

    Yep and ghg reduction is not high on the scale of reason to by a plug-in. Power, smoothness, not using oil. Those are all more important reasons. Tesla has a back order of around 20,000 units on there SUV model X. I expect the outlander phev will also sell well in the US as it has in Japan.

    Think if batteries go down to $100/kwh then a 60kwh battery will cost a car maker $6000, a 100 kwh battery (300 mile range high performance). That means a 200 mile bev may cost less than a hybrid of similar performance. LG - supplier to chevy should be lower than $300/kwh. Tesla expects the model 3 will have batteries for $175/kwh, but need more sophisticated electronics.

    The cost reductions and infrastructure will probably take a decade. That will be the second generation of these long range bevs.