VW Faces $17B Fine for Emissions Scam

Taxpayers wasted $51 million on VW diesel credits

Bob Lutz: "Diesel has a certain cachet in the United States as the intelligent way to save fuel, but it's mostly psychological."

Emperor Bob Lutz doesn't disappoint in SAE World Congress keynote

 

might have been the only time he was coherent.

 

...hmm, I think that's a lower cost premium than Lutz quoted on the Autoline show

 

VW and other car-makers seldom sell diesel passenger cars in China now, some mega cities just banned diesel passenger cars.
The fuel quality and emission standards are low in China, especially referring to diesel.
And the vehicle exhausting pollutants in China mainly come from nearly no emission-controlling diesel heavy duty trucks made by Chinese manufacturers, a lot worse than VW's "cheating" diesels.

That's some story for pickups.
I think Toyota's commercial light-duty diesel-electric hybrid truck Hino 195h is still available in the U.S..

 

It makes a huge difference when I'm seeing figures of 10 to 40x the allowable amounts of NOx (not clear if this is what's allowed for new passenger cars of the time, in general or just to earn their 6/10 EPA smog/air pollution score). That means a SINGLE car has the impact of at least 10 to 40 cars that met the standard.

The smog rating as described at Drive Clean - Understand the Smog Rating. It actually includes other limits, listed at http://www3.epa.gov/greenvehicles/documents/420f13022.pdf.

For a vehicle to only score a 6/10 NMOG + NOx (g/mile) allowed is 0.110 to 0.125.

I counted dozens of 2015 vehicles at Drive Clean that scored 9/10 where the limit is 0.020 to 0.030.

If you compare the upper the bounds, the allowable amount for a 6/10 for 9/10 is ~4.17 times. That's a lot! That's kinda crappy that a vehicle could have 4x the smog impact vs. another.

And, w/the cheating, with claims that NOx emissions are 10 to 40 times the EPA limits. So, if it were only 10x whats allowed for 6/10 score, that likely means a single cheater VW/Audi TDI is having the NOx impact of ~41 cars that score 9/10.

If it's 40x that turns into 5 grams/mile, meaning a single cheating diesel has the NOx impact of ~166 cars that score 9/10!

 

Totally agreed with what you said. It just some numb nuts trying to say it's no big deal!

So from the calculation, the cheating VW diesels would represent 79 million more cars that are compliant on the road! Well done VW, that's one way of claiming world number 1... In polluting that is!!

SM-G900I ?

 

They're started such a scheme in France and it's being considered in other areas;

French diesel scrappage scheme to launch in April | EV Fleet World

 

The signature of a cheat is user MPG >> epa MPG:

• 2014 BMW 328d: 44.3 MPG (4 vehicles) >> 34 MPG (epa MPG)
  • 2014: 39.5 MPG (39 vehicles) fuelly.com
  • 2015: 37.8 MPG (7 vehicles) fuelly.com, less bad

It is possible only the early 2014 BMW 328d needs regression testing. Although a small sample size, the 2015 is OK.

Bob Wilson

 

Bob, I'm a bit thick some days. Are you saying that the reason many diesel fan boys can exceed the official mpg stats is because the stats were based on full emissions running during the test, whereas in the real world they're (illegally?) switched off by the car and thus it's able to do a higher mpg?

 

There could be other reasons why user MPG is higher. Diesels operate at higher pressure and need smaller tolerances. That alone ensures MPG will be worse during break in, and break in will take longer. Since only new cars used for EPA tests, the discrepancy between EPA and user almost guaranteed.

Take a look at any efficient car, for example Prius C or Mitsubishi Mirage, the MPG for current year is lower than for the same car two years ago.

that's what he is saying

===================================== separate post ===================================

This could have been a big concern if there were many diesel VWs in school zone. There are none, and the reality is one commercial truck or bus can legally spit x100s of what the cheating VW could under worse circumstances.

Have you seen any commercial diesels in school zones? Oh yeah, all of the school buses..

So what would in grand scheme of that commercial trucks/buses represent? There are many of them which don't adhere even to very lax 2007 rules.

 

cheers

I just wanted it clarified for others like me who are hard of understanding

 

I am with you on this one.

Another reason why current year MPG is usually lower, b/c next year model goes on sale in September, and mainly sold in following month. Well by the time April rolls out, most of the miles put on "new year" model will be in cooler winter conditions. Which means lower MPG, and it will take a whole cycle to level it off.

 

At the 2-year mark (20k miles), my v easily got better mileage than before, without even trying. To the best of my knowledge, no VW mechanic has been near the car.

 

You pretty well got it:

The signature of VW's cheat was available when I did an analysis of both Jetta and Passat TDI user numbers versus the EPA test. Until last week, I thought VW had done a 'reverse' KIA by under reporting the metrics used for the EPA mileage numbers. Now we know they turned off emissions controls for users and only turned it on for EPA (possibly EU?) testing. The simple expedient of looking for steering inputs would be enough.

What I'm proposing is the signature of a cheat occurs when:

1. user MPG >> EPA MPG - it has to be averaged over a statistically valid number, at least 34, users. Even then,this only signals a vehicle may need investigation including 'road tested' emissions.
2. user MPG << EPA MPG - same as before but this is the Ford/KIA problem where someone is trying to get a better set of EPA numbers than the vehicle delivers.
3. ">>" and "<<" is +/-10%, or take the extreme values first and work towards the average

There are other effects that may be in play and those should be investigated. Even the EPA test protocol may need another tweak. Regardless, when something is outside of the 'norm', those cars are the ones that beg a second look. If something looks too good, it often is.

This is basic quality control analysis, something too few companies understand, much less practice. It has only gotten worse after ISO-9000 (1994) was eviscerated.

Bob Wilson

 

Death of diesel?
I can't wait till BMW puts the 2.0 diesel in the X1, 45+ mpg's ahh 8 speed transmission, heated steering wheel, 7" of air beneath, all wheel drive, and a diesel

 

No commercials of course, but we went through a huge diesel boom in Australia during 2010 to 2014. 2015 has been the first time diesel is having a 30% dip. There are plenty of VWs picking up their kids in the school zones here in, I would say 20% of the cars in school zones with kids waiting for their parents. School buses are not very popular where we are, you either catch public transport, walk or getting dropped off by parents.

 

I'm OK with both of these hypothesis:

VW tried similar explanations after the University of West Virginia report came out in 2014. So the investigators enlisted the help of CARB and eventually, the story changed.

I don't use statistics to mislead or lie, I use them to separate 'VW talk' from the facts and data. Of course that means I know how to 'embrace the Dark side' because 'I see numbers.'

Bob Wilson

 

I see user MPG >> EPA MPG possible when a certain model is used most in highway, as a 3series BMW (executive courier, perhaps). Some units can be used around town, but less miles, that is.

 

A Seattle-based law firm, Hagens Berman, filed a lawsuit seeking class-action status within hours of the Environmental Protection Agency's press conference Friday to announce its allegations of cheating on emissions tests by Volkswagen.

Volkswagen faces lawsuits over emissions deception

Less than four days after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced that Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) had designed some of its diesel models to cheat emissions tests, lawyers have brought at least 25 class actions on behalf of scores of car owners in all 50 U.S. states.

How U.S. lawyers were so quick off the mark to sue Volkswagen| Reuters

 

Let me suggest picking up the numbers and demonstrating what you've proposed:

• www.fueleconomy.gov - publicly available web site with user reported mileage and EPA numbers
  
• www.fuelly.com - publicly available web site with user reported mileage

This is what I do because I'm interested in facts and data. It is easy to speculate but takes a little effort (not that much actually) to get the data and do an analysis. I do it all the time because I want to know.

Bob Wilson