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VW says, fuel cells stupid for the next decade.

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Mar 16, 2013.

  1. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Hydrogen is a long-term goal, intended to be generated using renewable sources later. In the meantime, we're stuck with fossil sources.

    Also note that hydrogen serves as a storage medium for utilities, to take advantage of energy collection opportunity.
     
    #41 john1701a, Sep 27, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2015
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  2. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    But the Phys.org calculation shows Hydrogen generated renewably (from water) loses 70% of the source electricity. A battery-powered car only loses 35%, so doesn't it make sense to choose the more-energy efficient option & make that our future car? (Perhaps for somebody who thinks Toyota does no wrong, the Mirai should be supported, but as an EE my job is viewing the cold, hard facts without emotional baggage.)
     
  3. HGS

    HGS Member

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    Is there a down side to manufacturing batteries, and disposing of old ones? I'm asking about batteries for EV that will go 250-300 miles between charge.
     
  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    I'm not sure import strikes an objective meaning. In this case, how would you mean important?
    whether i think of vw's recent scandal, and Toyota hydrogen lobby/PR - i think of a different Depeche Mode tune;

    If it's 100° all summer outside - i can burn natural gas to make electricity to cool my home, or i can add 8 or 10hW's of solar panels - which add ZERO CO2 to the environment's mix. The honest choice seems pretty evident - at least for the current few decades.
    .
     
    #44 hill, Sep 27, 2015
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  5. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    How outdated is that loss data and where exactly will that electricity be stored prior to reaching the vehicle?

    I find it amazing how many people think the grid can just hold all the electricity we need indefinitely. It provides transport, not storage.

    Reality is, the sun only shines and the wind only blows at limited times. The energy captured must somehow be stored until it is needed. Hydrogen provides a means of doing that.
     
  6. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Speak for yourself:p
    I expect to be off fossil fuels many, many years before we see hydrogen public fueling stations in MN.
     
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  7. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    So? I'll be relying heavily on renewable sources too. That means nothing for the masses though.

    When you scale up from thousands to 100's of thousands, issues arise.

    The co-existence of FCV and EV will address that.
     
  8. HGS

    HGS Member

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    I don't really care if it's EV or FCV so long as it goes about 300 miles and doesn't take long to fill it up.

    Fuel Cells seem to be Toyota's answer to the fill time. H2 will work in any H2 car. Finding a station to quick change the battery for "my" car may be more challenging on a long cross country drive. One battery type will not fit in all cars. I don't see 300 mile batteries charging in 20 minutes anytime in the near future.
     
    #48 HGS, Sep 27, 2015
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  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    now that we understand vw, i might have to rethink my f/c position.
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Well, 'disposing' of old plug in and hybrid batteries could just mean putting them to a different use. When most BEV packs hit the point where reduced capacity isn't enough for the owner's daily needs, there is still a decent amount of capacity left that could be enough for other uses, such as back up to cell towers. Toyota took old hybrid batteries and installed them at some dealerships to save on electric by peak shaving, or time shifting, when they bought the electric and when used it.

    After that, the batteries can be recycled. Some chemistries legally have to be, i.g. lead-acid and Ni Cad. Others aren't as toxic, and whether they will be recycled comes down to cost.

    The new BEV Porsche just unveiled might be able to do it.
    But considering how most cars are used day to day, recharging that fast isn't a real need for BEVs. If you don't want wait for charging on longer trips, plug in hybrids can give you the day to day advantages of a BEV, fast refill of liquid fuels, and lower cost than a FCEV.
     
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  11. HGS

    HGS Member

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    If I was a one car owner, I would not buy a BEV. I drive up to 600 miles/day to other states and stay in hotels. It's not practical for long cross-country travel yet.
     
  12. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    Keep dreaming, fossil fuels are not going away anytime soon. Your great grand children will still be on fossils.

    DBCassidy
     
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  13. HGS

    HGS Member

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    I expect he was referring to his electric car. But, even electric cars charge up using some fossil fuel at the power plant.

    Living in a world with nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar electricity as our only energy is a very long way away, if ever. So, you're right. Our great grand children will most likely use some fossil fuels.

    It's that total carbon foot print thing. Can't operate an electric car in a vacum.
     
    #53 HGS, Sep 27, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2015
  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    huh? Who is going to build all these hydrogen stations in Minnesota? Not private industry. Buy a fcv today and you need to roll your own. For the next decade or the next millenia. I don't know. I don't see plans for even 100,000 fcv on road vehicles in the next decade. How do you scale? Who pays. How are the masses going to fill their fuel cell vehicle in China and the US (number 1 and number 2 new car markets).

    It takes energy (including fossil) to build cars and roads. How jaded this discussion has become when people think that the mirai and fueling stations take no fossil fuels. The bmw i3 is very low but fossil fuels are used.

    Why is 0 even a goal. I agree with you no reason to go to 0. But if you are going very low fossil - fuel cell fueling infrastructure is much more expensive than plug-in renewable fueling.

    Remember wind is less expensive than solar when we are talking a large number of vehicles.
     
    #54 austingreen, Sep 27, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2015
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Then the BEV won't work for you. Fortunately, you aren't being forced into one, and you are free to decide which PHV, hybrid, diesel, or plain old gasoline car works for you. Fuel cell may even be an option, but I don't see hydrogen powered ones working for you for a long time. The infrastructure simply isn't there, and will cost billions. It is possible to run them on diesel, gasoline, alcohol, NG, or even ammonia though
     
  16. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    Physical laws are eternal. The graph posted on page 2 has not changed, and neither has the inherent losses of converting water to hydrogen and back to water. (Battery EVs don't have that phase change loss.) You cannot violate Thermodynamic Law just through wishing or hoping.

    As for storage there are several methods: Batteries & caps are the main ones used by power companies. Some homes/businesses/factories heat giant tanks of water & then use that heat later. All three methods are far, far more efficient than converting water-to-hydrogen-and-back, since they eliminate "phase change" losses.
     
    #56 Troy Heagy, Sep 28, 2015
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  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Conversion losses aren't eliminated though.

    For a utility company to store electricity, it must be converted from AC to DC. Later when it is transferred to users, it must then be converted from the stored DC back to AC again. The user will then receive that AC and convert it back to DC for storage in their battery. Stored as hydrogen instead, it just stays in that form.

    There's the scale-up problem too. Utility companies won't have the capacity available to store that much. Only so many battery-banks are realistic. Massive tanks holding hydrogen would work better at that larger magnitude.
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I'm not sure how we got from 10,000 psi hydrogen that must be compressed and chilled or liquified for cars to grid storage but here goes.

    For grid storage batteries appear to be winning, but this is because of cheap natural gas and lack of excess renewables. There are short periods of time where there is not enough power generated so the short term cost gets high. Here batteries can pump out bursts of power quickly, they don't need to be high energy because it is a short period of time. While the batteries take that short term load, natural gas can be spun up. The batteries provide reliability, and lithium batteries are now getting cheap enough to add them at points of congestion.

    Hydrogen/fc looks perfered for storing energy. Here if energy can be stored that cost 2 cents/kwh and then shifted where it is 6+ cents/kwh then a 50% loss doesn't hurt that badly. If you can build your electrolyzer/fc/storage cheap enough efficiency is fine, as you are time shifting. Fuel cells don't fire up and shut down instantly though, so the low price of natural gas ccgt and ocgt power today makes hydrogen storage not economic. If that cycling power gets more expensive though, either forcing renewable methane or through taxes or driling regulations, the electroysis/fuel cell cycle may become economic.

    For cars there is also that problem. A fuel cell, compression, and electrolysis is not going to be more efficient than a charger and battery, the fuel cell vehicle will always require more renewable electricity if that is what is powering it. The only way to get close to as efficient is directly converting fossil or biofuels into hydrogen, or some catylitic cracking using some other energy source (heat from a nuclear reactor, solar, enymatic with some fuel source). The promise of fuel cells is if you can drive down costs enough to make it more economic, it just can not suddenly become more efficient.

    These cost reductions require some technical breakthroughs that haven't happened yet. They don't defy physics but even after they happen, if they happen, it will take a long time to go from lab to mass market fueling. That time to get the breakthrough plus get it out of the lab always seems to be a promise of around a decade. Panasonic thinks they have a cracking technology that will be out of the lab in 5 years, but again to then build large scale production even if it works will take time. Its not going to happen in just 5 years.
     
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  19. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    How many times must CO-EXIST be mentioned before it is finally accepted that this isn't an either/or situation? One solution will not fix all.

    We grew up in a society that worked hard for single solutions. It was always thought of as one technology replacing another. The duality of our future isn't going to come easy because of that. Fortunately, we are seeing glimpses of hope. Look at the computer market now. There's a wide variety of ways to interact with the digital world and it's for the most part working just fine. People have come to accept differences, rather than fight for just one approach.

    Transportation will have a similar outcome. The other choice won't be looked upon as an alternative, like some fuels are now. It will simply be the norm. Some people will have this. Others will have that. No big deal.

    Remember the goals, all of them. We are not simply replacing transportation technologies with the intent of using the least amount of electricity possible. After all, it is renewable. There is a pressing need to also reduce overall emissions, while at the same time not cause economies to fall apart.
     
    #59 john1701a, Sep 28, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2015
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  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I most certainly didn't say it did. You cut off this part of my post which gives context, for why we will only see a token level of fuel cell vehicles for the next decade. Toyota itself says it will at best produce tens of thousands sometime in the 2020s, after producing at most 3000/year for world wide consumption
    The leading tech today is ordinary ice, and that will probably continue. With the VW dieselgate, I expect diesel to fade in the midsize and smaller car market. Hybrids do great in Japan, but struggle to get to 5%, perhaps plug-ins will past that in the next decade in the US and China, the big car markets.

    I fully support funding fuel cell R&D. What I don't believe in is commercialization at this early stage. IMHO a 20,000 car test in california could be okay, but its always more more more, and overblown promises. There were supposed to be 50,000 fcv in 2017, as time goes by the reality sets in. Now if we increase tax payer funding there may be 30,000 in california in 2021, which I again think is an over estimate. Japan is funding about $60,000 per fcv, they could buy people a leaf and a prius for that.

    Using today's tech FCV probably need a much higher government subsidy to get beyond 20,000 vehicles. Let's wait for these promised magic cost savings before the government increases funding again after the companies fail to deliver. What if its methanol instead of 10,000 psi hydrogen. That is what toyota prototyped first. The problem is a phev running methanol probably uses less expensive fuel at today's fuel cell costs.
     
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